Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

ClaudeJ

New Member
Registered Member
Sorry gents,

it looks like mentioning Snowden caught all your attention, my mistake, while my actual question was:

is the J-31 is still a SAC only funded project (and thus would be for export only?) or the PLAAF/PLANAF have expressed an interest in a purchase since Deino published his Drangon's Wings" book?
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Sorry gents,

it looks like mentioning Snowden caught all your attention, my mistake, while my actual question was:

is the J-31 is still a SAC only funded project (and thus would be for export only?) or the PLAAF/PLANAF have expressed an interest in a purchase since Deino published his Drangon's Wings" book?


To admit when the text had to be prepared for that book we did not know very much about that type and even less about its background. As a consequence I put together all option, that were then on the table ... currently it looks not so, even if I'm still quite sure that the PLA is watching closely its progress and options it could give.

Deino
 

ClaudeJ

New Member
Registered Member
Thank you Deino.
Whatever assumption you had to make, I'm convinced that it's sound (not many authors quote their sources and honestly mention their doubts as you did, that rank your work on top of my list).
Maybe that what's being waited for is a third-party partner, like Pakistan for the the FC-1.
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Thank you Deino.
Whatever assumption you had to make, I'm convinced that it's sound (not many authors quote their sources and honestly mention their doubts as you did, that rank your work on top of my list).
Maybe that what's being waited for is a third-party partner, like Pakistan for the the FC-1.


Thanks a lot, but especially in mind of the just ongoing and quite very active as well as interesting discussion (https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/ma...ypically-non-reliable-ones.t7180/#post-323938) I won't rate myself a "source" - surely not - since all I do is to collect all information I can gather, put them into their perspective and try to find out what's the most likely .... I'm in fact a information-hamster (like we joke in Germany) !
 

Verum

Junior Member
Sorry gents,

it looks like mentioning Snowden caught all your attention, my mistake, while my actual question was:

is the J-31 is still a SAC only funded project (and thus would be for export only?) or the PLAAF/PLANAF have expressed an interest in a purchase since Deino published his Drangon's Wings" book?
J-31 is SAC only, as confirmed by AVIC president himself in a documentary/talk show on CCTV. However, it was probably only self funded in the early stage. Those planes are not cheap to develop. At certain stages, it would be financially and technologically impossible for SAC/AVIC to do everything on its own. Projects of this magnitude need institutes from across the country to contribute in terms of research and manufacturing support. Not to mention the billions and billions of dollars needed for all those.

And as for export, it probably will eventually be exported. This is due to 2 reasons;
1. It's not a backbone/high end fighter like J-20, so there's is no worry of leaking top end tech.
2. It's cheaper, Pakistan can't afford 50+ J-20's and neither do they need something of this caliber unless India received PAK-FA.
 

schenkus

Junior Member
Registered Member
J-31 is SAC only, as confirmed by AVIC president himself in a documentary/talk show on CCTV. However, it was probably only self funded in the early stage. Those planes are not cheap to develop. At certain stages, it would be financially and technologically impossible for SAC/AVIC to do everything on its own. Projects of this magnitude need institutes from across the country to contribute in terms of research and manufacturing support. Not to mention the billions and billions of dollars needed for all those.

And as for export, it probably will eventually be exported. This is due to 2 reasons;
1. It's not a backbone/high end fighter like J-20, so there's is no worry of leaking top end tech.
2. It's cheaper, Pakistan can't afford 50+ J-20's and neither do they need something of this caliber unless India received PAK-FA.

Here is my personal guess about the status of the J-31 project,
please tell me if you think it's completely off the mark:
- SAC built the prototype for the "stealth fighter" competition the J-31 lost to the J-20
- there is still interest in the J-31 in the PLAAF/PLANAF (perhaps for carrier aircraft),
but not enough demand to justify the billions necessary to fully develop it
(I guess you would need to build >100 fighters to justify the investment, just building
a small number for aircraft carriers won't be worth the cost)
- SAC is keeping the project running and hopes that the demand for a "cheap stealth"
aircraft will still result in an official project to fully develop the plane
- I think SAC is hoping that if an export customer is interested in ~50 fighters the
people within PLAAF/PLANAF in favor of the J-31 might be able to justify financing
part of the development and ordering some planes themselves
- I don't think an export order of ~50 planes by itself would justify completing the
development
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Yeah I think it was 2010 they claimed the data was stolen because I remember the notion that China could put together a stealth fighter in less than a year when the J-20 first appeared. I want to know if it was the White House, someone in Congress, the Pentagon, or the media made that charge. It's already out that china stole the data so this revelation will not change anything. It's odd if the Pentagon made the charge first and now they're backtracking? Why? Now every other suspect I know they can lie for political purposes.
 
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