Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Discussion in 'Air Force' started by RedSky, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. Deino
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    Deino Brigadier
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    or in reverse - and that's exactly the point for the F-35 issue - since in the current situation no-one can guarantee that F-35 technology would end up in Russia, Chin or whatever.

    But stop this off topic ... back to the FC-31.
     
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  2. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Senior Member
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    I think neither Russia nor China would export their most advanced engine technology to Turkey.
    Unless we are talking about an older generation engine like AL-31 series. Even that is a big "if".

    Russia would export engines wholesale but I doubt they would sell anything more advanced than the Su-57 first stage engines.
    Because the second stage engines are what will make the aircraft competitive in sales.

    The airframe would be shared, and at least the code would have to be made modular. This would apply to both Turkey and some other clients like India, which want to integrate their own weapons systems in the aircraft. Even if Russia does not open up all the code, they need to make it possible to integrate 3rd party systems into it. Much like Sweden does with the Grippen.

    Assuming they are not embargoed I think Turkey would have better chances going with one of the European countries with their program. Fact is, unlike the Chinese or Russian programs which are well advanced, those countries have stealth fighters still in progress and would be more open to workshare. Another possibility would be South Korea.
     
  3. Just4Fun
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    Just4Fun New Member
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    Turkey used to be a loyal Western ally, but no more today. Under the banner of "America First", the US can't find anyone who is truly loyal.

    Today, Turkey can be best said a wavering US ally, or maybe a US traitor eventually. Turkey is an Observer of the SCO. It is the only NATO country in the world that is in the process to consider joining the SCO. But, as an ambitious regional power eager to restore its historic glory, Turkey has its own agenda in a multiple-polar world. It is unlikely that Turkey will align itself to any world power as it views itself as a world power.

    China will not get involved into ME religious fight. It will take standard business approach toward every ME country and will welcome everyone who is ready to break away from the orbit of Washington.
     
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  4. Viktor Jav
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    Viktor Jav Senior Member
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    For the FC-31 to have any prospect of a Turkish sale it must fulfil one important criteria. That of being a finished product without any need for further investments. Ankara had already paid an approximate sum of 195 million USD in advance to the US for joint development of the F-35 (it was one of the original partners to the project) before the ban took effect. So unless Turkish leadership have not learn a single thing from that experience it is very unlikely that Turkey will sink even more money into a fighter that has not yet completed its development.
    That is what the FC-31 is facing, for all the promises and potential that is heaped on it. It is for all realistic senses and purposes, still a technology demonstrator with only 2 flying prototypes with a questionable level (if there is any to begin with) of avionics and engines aboard. And again (this can't be stressed enough), the Chinese military has uptill now have not shown any interests in pursing this project so SAC has to continue on it alone with limited funding and labour.
    The Su-57, despite all it's issues, still in the end represents a finished product that Turkey can readily acquire without paying more than what the price tag on the plane states. That alone represents a major advantage over any potential rivals.
     
    #5944 Viktor Jav, Jun 26, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2019
  5. Brumby
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    Turkey does not have any problem assessing engine technology. It has decided to go with the F-110 engine for its TFX program. Its main issue is in building up its indigenous aerospace industry - not accessibility. Turkey seems to be well progressed with its TFX program and plans to fly its first prototype by 2026. I can't see how the FC-31 would interest Turkey.

    The one country that could be a good candidate is Saudi Arabia. I would not be surprised though that the British is trying to woo it for their Tempest program.
     
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  6. Biscuits
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    Biscuits Junior Member
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    Saudi Arabia is one of America’s closest allies, no chance of any sale at all, unless the plane is downgraded so much that it contains no useful technology.

    Same goes for the British.

    If the project finds life, it would be best to sell it to close allies, such as the more ironclad members of SCO. Russia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Iran, bangladesh, Cambodia, even India should they decide to commit to China and Russia’s side.

    The countries can pool their money together to finish the project and to purchase a set amount. That way, the #of stealth planes available to allies will be massively bolstered, the countries will be better defended against aggression, and the cost for each country would also be reduced, as some of them don’t have super strong economies.

    Britain, Saudi and turkey all have cash, but the price of the technologies on a stealth fighter -especially one so closely related to the PLAAF’s own use, cannot be measured with money alone.
     
    #5946 Biscuits, Jun 26, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2019
  7. TerraN_EmpirE
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    TerraN_EmpirE Tyrant King

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    Saudi Arabia plays all sides. They buy from the US but are happy to buy from Russia or China. The Chinese would likely sell knocked down vehicles to them, just as everyone else does. For them if oil prices hold buying Russian SU57 or Chinese FC31 is possible.

    The British? Talk about a huge step down. I doubt they would actively seek any tech share with the PRC especially if they are on the receiving end. If they run into trouble on Tempest, they would use the Special Relationship.

    Iran is right now in a trouble spot financially, and would want their own production line.
    For them a 4.5 gen would be a huge step up from their current air forces. F14 is very good but at almost 60 years old. F4 is almost 70. F5 about the same. They have some newer imports and second hand from Iraq but 35-40 years old early 4th late 3rd gen. Even J10 and FC17 would be a massive upgrades.

    India partnering for a Defence program with China and Pakistan is about as likely as the US buying T14 Armata.

    The Cambodian Air Force is a Helicopter force and VIP airline for the Government.
    Bangladesh has an Air Force but it’s grand plan for modernization is 4.5 gen fighters.
    Kazakstan buys Russian, they might be wowed but that’s a stretch
    Russia will not buy a foreign built fighter. It’s the same as China buying a Su57.

    Again Sino JSF not realistic when you consider how far along the program seems now.
     
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  8. Air Force Brat
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    I'm going to disagree here Bub, I think Turkey would be wide open to a partnership with China on the FC-31, they have a LOT of manufacturing capacity that will soon be idle, and the Russians are really not reliable partners as illustrated by the India/Russian joint venture on the SU-57. China and Turkey on the other hand have a lot in common right now...

    the truth is that Erdogan knew the S-400 would be a deal breaker for the F-35, he still blames the US for the attempted coup. He is looking for a new, more reliable partner, who isn't concerned about his politics or internal affairs.

    He just wants to stick his finger in our eye, hey, whatever, we're not gonna fly the F-35 alongside the S-400, that would be the height of stoopidity.
     
  9. Air Force Brat
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    Well to be honest President Erdogan is antagonizing NATO, as well as all the F-35 partners, by placing their aircrafts security and mission capability at risk buying the S-400, so he basically is breaking his partnership contract by exposing the aircraft to a significant security breach....

    but you are right, this is an awesome opportunity for China and the FC-31, and no doubt China will go after the Turkish market, all the dynamics around Turkey are changing poles and coming around to 180 degrees out of phase...

    So yes, it is a tremendous opportunity, indeed Turkey has lots of technology and production capability in 5 Gen aircraft, so you're spot on, though others will disagree vehemently, this is all the stars lining up to shine on the FC-31......
     
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  10. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    Yes, Erdogan does blame the US for supporting the coup attempt which tried to kill him. Particularly since the US refuses to hand Gulen over to Turkey.

    And I don't think the politics or internal affairs is really the big issue for Erdogan. It's that Erdogan doesn't want a partner who would prefer him to be dead.
     
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