SinoSoldier
Colonel
I guess the answer to this is the same for all unknown PLA developments: just wait & see.
Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator
- Thread starter RedSky
- Start date
I guess the answer to this is the same for all unknown PLA developments: just wait & see.
It's a complex issue and weight easily runs away. This was recently discussed elaborately in the STOBAR thread:
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/st...rformance-su-33-j-15.t8043/page-5#post-528565
In essence, STOBAR imposes a penalty on weapons weight fraction of take-off weight compared to CATOBAR, such that you'd have to upgrade the Su-33/J-15 to Su-35S levels plus some additional nips and tucks just to fully match a catapult-assisted F/A-18C. Next-gen engines offering a higher (engine) T/W ratio and TVC are going to help matters, but I don't think they'll be able to significantly alter the fundamental mechanics of the problem, especially with stealth (internal bays) thrown into the mix. Of course, you can always argue the choice of the F/A-18C as a benchmark, but I do think lowering ambition much below this level quickly erodes the aircraft's operational usefulness.
I know it’s a tough one to square. Just saying we can’t totally eliminate the possibility just yet.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
I just noticed the following part from Aviation Week's article:
This is similar to what PB19980515 wrote about the J-XY, but the information about the increased combat radius is new to me.
On a different but related note, @huitong has updated his blog:
I guess we'll wait and see, amid all the recent rumors, although I'd still like to know what "unnamed sources" Aviation Week reporters interviewed.
This is similar to what PB19980515 wrote about the J-XY, but the information about the increased combat radius is new to me.
On a different but related note, @huitong has updated his blog:
I guess we'll wait and see, amid all the recent rumors, although I'd still like to know what "unnamed sources" Aviation Week reporters interviewed.
Though AFAIK, we do NOT have a solid reason to believe that these rumours are 100% accurate and FCS is, by any means, flawed or unstable. Both Liaoning's and Kuznetsov's CAGs suffered from similar incidents under similar circumstances (at least in some cases) which might also suggest that the problem might be more related with the ship class than we acknowledge.
Back in 2016, Kuznetsov suffered twice -- one MiG-29KUBR and one Su-33, just in three weeks. Given the practical differences between both navies when it comes to CAG Ops, one could propose that it's natural to expect more incidents from PLANAF since PLAN sees carrier operations more crucial to achieve their mid-term goals and Russian Navy had to partially abandon and fully postpone those plans until 2021+.
Both navies share 3 factors in common:
1) Related aircrafts in their roots; Su-33 & J-15
2) Sister ships in class with very similar characteristics
3) Lack of experience in CAG operations as of 2016
and in my opinion, the 3rd factor is quite a strong one when it comes to such incidents. I'm in no place of eliminating the possible reasons of such incidents but I'd pick experience over the others any day. That being said, PLANAF is climbing the ladder much faster than anticipated by the most and this is also related with an accelerated but intensive training program. Such an approach often create incidents related with human factor.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
Deino can you put the rumours to rest
has PLAAF and PLAN picked J31?
Did you speak with any representatives ?
has PLAAF and PLAN picked J31?
Did you speak with any representatives ?
I spoke briefly with Stephen Trimble from Aviation Week and he noted that they at AvW have full confidence in the source of information, but - as we surely will understand - cannot say more.
I must admit; I'm still sceptical.
In a way this sort of innuendo and discreet behavior is quite consistent with the dueling will they won’t they rumours we’ve been hearing between Gongke and PB19980515. My guess is what’s actually happened is that SAC has received funding from the PLA to continue development but no formal program or programs has been set or decided on, which means to acknowledge that the J-31 has been picked up with a concrete affirmative would be getting ahead of the actual situation. Naturally people from SAC may regard such funding as a sure sign that they have been selected and it’s only a matter of time before everything is set in paper, with any potential contest either currently present or expected in the future only a superficial formality, but for other firms looking to compete for their share of whatever needs the PLA may be looking at the J-31 to fill the door seems very much still open.
It may be that from the standpoint of the PLA there’s an ongoing reassessment of future force structures, and in the meantime they would very much like to keep programs like the J-31 alive and progressing to ensure that once revisions around future planning and procurement have been finalized development can skip an initiation phase and proceed rapidly. This makes sense for them even if the J-31 ends up not being chosen because a lot of the research, process work, and development that comes of that funding could be applied and deployed to a different design. Meanwhile for SAC it makes sense to continue pushing the narrative that whatever final and formal decision the PLA makes about a stealth fighter for the PLAN, and potentially a second stealth fighter acting as a mainstay for the PLAAF, selection of the J-31 is a done deal to dissuade competing firms from rocking the boat and coming up with appealing and viable alternatives that could change which firm and design the PLA ends up going with.
If this is the case, then for the PLA funding the J-31 is about investing in a potential ready made option while they sort out exactly what they want, but likely with a good measure of intent to explore alternatives in the field once they’re ready to inaugurate a formal program. Meanwhile for SAC the J-31 is their ongoing gambit that at some point the PLA would have had to look at procuring another stealth fighter, with the years of self financing a concerted effort to position themselves early ahead of the competition. Given the motivations it would make sense that they would employ any means within their power to try to ensure that foresight and investment was worthwhile, including exerting as much control over the narrative as possible without overannouncing and shooting themselves in the foot.
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