Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

If the PLAAF does indeed pick the J31 in addition to the J20 while continuing orders for J10s and J11/16s, that would point to me that the primary motivation for the J31 order is speed of delivery.

Even with expended production, CAC could only build so many J20s a year, and it could easily be 10-15 years before the PLAAF gets all the 5th gens they feel they need as a minimum force structure. Adding the J31 could easily mean the PLAAF is getting double the number is stealth fighters per year as it could with just the J20, thereby halving the length of time needed to reach that desired critical mass of 5th gens.

With the latest Trump stunts, I really think China has quietly but firmly shifted its stance to serious war prep.

Not suggesting China is planning on attacking anyone, just that they would have revised up their threat assessment risks, and are making corresponding adjustments to their defence posture and requirements.

The main concern I have with the J31 is the lack of any rumour of a 5th gen engine in development for it.

The J20 is set to get the WS15. What is the J31’s longer term engine solution?

Without a 5th gen engine, it will always struggle to reach its full potential; with supercruise a major capability it is likely to lack.

Well to be fair, 10-15 years for all 5th gen orders to be fulfilled is not too surprising a period for the PLAAF. Considering that China has at least half a thousand 4th gen planes in almost newly minted conditions it would be a waste to relegate them to a boneyard so early. If Chengdu can produce up to 3 units per month (the F-22 was produced at a rate of roughly 2 per month) for 5 years straight, the PLAAF can have up to 180 units within 5 years. More than enough to be used as an elite spearhead unit.
There is a lot that the PLAAF has yet to learn from what it expects and want of a 5th gen fighter, so I suspect that they will take things a little slowly, rectifying defects and adding incremental improvements along the way.
And at the risk of deviating from the topic at hand, Trump for all his bluster is more smoke and mirrors. Had he had the guts or the mental capacity, he would not have been lead around the nose in Syria by Putin. He can be as threatening as he likes, but the lower downs under him are well aware that what he says is easier said than done.
And if SAC is to pick up the J-31 in conjunction with the J-11/15/16, I don't think that we will be seeing as fast a production rate as we would like.

Some guys at PDF says that ws-19(GE 414 class engine) could be ready before ws-15, he says ws-15 might be ready in 2025+-

ILikeChina said:

Some guys at PDF says that ws-19(GE 414 class engine) could be ready before ws-15, he says ws-15 might be ready in 2025+-

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Indeed ... I read the same.

WS-19 is a valuable project to prioritise. Could be applied on upcoming UCAVs, JF-17 future blocks for Pakistan and more attractive export variants, and J-31. Surely the RD-93 copy (WS-13) cannot be considered for J-31. If the rumours about PLAAF and PLAN buying J-31 are true, WS-19 should be almost ready. It should be an easier engine to master seeing as it is lower thrust and engines in these lower thrust classes have been designed and/or manufactured by China in the past.

Flanker series fighters have a role to play so we probably won't see any slow down in production of the latest types even when J-31 goes into gear. We haven't seen any slowdowns in J-10C procurement with J-20 coming out of Chengdu. If SAC is to open new production lines just for J-31 so that demand is satisfied, this is completely doable given the huge labour forces available and the production line for a fifth gen differing significantly from flanker variants.

plawolf said:

If the PLAAF does indeed pick the J31 in addition to the J20 while continuing orders for J10s and J11/16s, that would point to me that the primary motivation for the J31 order is speed of delivery.

Even with expended production, CAC could only build so many J20s a year, and it could easily be 10-15 years before the PLAAF gets all the 5th gens they feel they need as a minimum force structure. Adding the J31 could easily mean the PLAAF is getting double the number is stealth fighters per year as it could with just the J20, thereby halving the length of time needed to reach that desired critical mass of 5th gens.

With the latest Trump stunts, I really think China has quietly but firmly shifted its stance to serious war prep.

Not suggesting China is planning on attacking anyone, just that they would have revised up their threat assessment risks, and are making corresponding adjustments to their defence posture and requirements.

The main concern I have with the J31 is the lack of any rumour of a 5th gen engine in development for it.

The J20 is set to get the WS15. What is the J31’s longer term engine solution?

Without a 5th gen engine, it will always struggle to reach its full potential; with supercruise a major capability it is likely to lack.

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We do have a rumour for a 5th gen engine. The WS-19.

Deino said:

Indeed ... I read the same.

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Deino said:

Indeed ... I read the same.

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That may be a partial explanation of why we see so little evidence of J-20 production being ramped up?? I realize we don't have nearly the amount and quality of information those brave wall climbers used to provide us,,, but it seems as if total production continues to hover around 20??? or maybe there's 100 and we just don't know??

but if production were indeed much higher, we would surely have more anecdotal evidence??

plawolf said:

If the PLAAF does indeed pick the J31 in addition to the J20 while continuing orders for J10s and J11/16s, that would point to me that the primary motivation for the J31 order is speed of delivery.

Even with expended production, CAC could only build so many J20s a year, and it could easily be 10-15 years before the PLAAF gets all the 5th gens they feel they need as a minimum force structure. Adding the J31 could easily mean the PLAAF is getting double the number is stealth fighters per year as it could with just the J20, thereby halving the length of time needed to reach that desired critical mass of 5th gens.

With the latest Trump stunts, I really think China has quietly but firmly shifted its stance to serious war prep.

Not suggesting China is planning on attacking anyone, just that they would have revised up their threat assessment risks, and are making corresponding adjustments to their defence posture and requirements.

The main concern I have with the J31 is the lack of any rumour of a 5th gen engine in development for it.

The J20 is set to get the WS15. What is the J31’s longer term engine solution?

Without a 5th gen engine, it will always struggle to reach its full potential; with supercruise a major capability it is likely to lack.

Click to expand...

FC-31 will receive the WS-19, which going by "big shrimp" rumors might actually be ahead of the WS-15 in terms of development. A demonstrator and possibly a full-on prototype have been built already, according to pb19980515.

In the mean time, the WS-13E would be an appropriate interim engine for the FC-31.

With regard to the political reason behind this move, it could be due to a number of things:
(1) The proliferation of F-35s in the Asia-Pacific area, particularly Japan and RoK.
(2) The result of the recent J-20 vs J-11/10 exercises, in which the PLAAF realized that it would not stand a chance against a military with 5th-generation fighters unless it had a sizeable fleet of such aircraft of its own.
(3) Japan's proposal to turn its Izumo vessels into F-35-capable carriers.
(4) India's procurement of 5th generation fighters.
(5) Giving SAC enough capital to pursue future projects (such as the JH-XX bomber or rumored Dark Sword) that the PLAAF might need in the distant future.

I don't think this is a result of Trump.

plawolf said:

If the PLAAF does indeed pick the J31 in addition to the J20 while continuing orders for J10s and J11/16s, that would point to me that the primary motivation for the J31 order is speed of delivery.

Even with expended production, CAC could only build so many J20s a year, and it could easily be 10-15 years before the PLAAF gets all the 5th gens they feel they need as a minimum force structure. Adding the J31 could easily mean the PLAAF is getting double the number is stealth fighters per year as it could with just the J20, thereby halving the length of time needed to reach that desired critical mass of 5th gens.

With the latest Trump stunts, I really think China has quietly but firmly shifted its stance to serious war prep.

Not suggesting China is planning on attacking anyone, just that they would have revised up their threat assessment risks, and are making corresponding adjustments to their defence posture and requirements.

The main concern I have with the J31 is the lack of any rumour of a 5th gen engine in development for it.

The J20 is set to get the WS15. What is the J31’s longer term engine solution?

Without a 5th gen engine, it will always struggle to reach its full potential; with supercruise a major capability it is likely to lack.

Click to expand...

While no doubt on the Chinese side its KOOL to talk about "Trump Stunts"? in the rest of the world, everyone realizes that China seizing reefs and shoals and building them up militarily, is the primary provocation in the region,, I believe Mr. Trump stated he didn't blame China?? (he obviously blames Pres Obama) for being weak and allowing that to happen in a vacuum..

So Mr. Trump is responding to that provocation in a strong, but even handed manner, no doubt that almost everyone with a Chinese world view, will seek to blame the US, Japan, Australia, the Phillipines, and Moe, Larry, and Curly!

So China has a desire to ramp up J-20 production, and realizes that they need more capacity than Chengdu is able to generate, so the FC-31 is moved to the front burner!

I'll make another prediction, if the US is unable to normalize relations with Russia?? (the Democrats and never Trumper's have made that damn near impossible), then Russia and China will begin to work together to bring Chinese engine technology up to a much more capable level, in fact that is already going on, and Russia continues to provide much of China's high end military jet propulsion...

In fact if the Chinese and Russians are NOT working together to bring their engine technology up to the Western Standard, they are making a huge mistake.....

In fact, I would say that current engine technology is creeping up to the 5.5 range with dramatic improvments in fuel flows and thermal management.

Deino said:

IMO I don't think so ... I'm always in the opinion, that a proper developed FC-321 with a decent engine could be what the F-35 was always meant to be. So that a medium sized twin engined FC-31 alias J-21 or J-31 would be a better choice than a smaller single engined one.

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latenlazy said:

1) Why spend extra effort and time developing yet another design?
2) The PLAAF already has to handle logistics for multiple types of engines. Not sure including a medium thrust engine in that mix is a problem.

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If the PLAAF has indeed decided to purchase the FC-31 then it won't be in small numbers, especially if it serves as a cheaper complement of the J-20. Therefore, having to source different types of engines will become a major issue and may incur unnecessary costs.

A notional WS-15-based single-engined fighter can share components with the J-20.