Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

kurutoga said:

They will sell to countries along "one belt one road" who seek more reliance on China. Security decisions have factors in military/economic but above everything else a political decision. The maturity of the weapon system itself is less of a concern IMO, when compared to the future possibilities. If Pakistan is smart enough they should find a sales/reselling opportunity here.

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Honestly, I have my doubts: As long as that type is not flying in a production-representative form powered by a decent engine (and no longer a dated RD-93-based design)... only if it has matured in terms of flight testing and even more if purchased by the PLAAF/PLANAF itself. We all know several fine products that simply failed due to the non-purchase of the origin-country.

Therefore in consequence I can only agree
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Dizasta1 said:

A fighter aircraft's marketability is based on the product design, capability and what the final product will be. ....

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Deino said:

Honestly, I have my doubts: As long as that type is not flying in a production-representative form powered by a decent engine (and no longer a dated RD-93-based design)... only if it has matured in terms of flight testing and even more if purchased by the PLAAF/PLANAF itself. We all know several fine products that simply failed due to the non-purchase of the origin-country.

Therefore in consequence I can only agree
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Just like any product development, we know the requirement is always changing, along with the original buyer's available options, as well as the geopolitical environment. So nothing is perfect, before, during, or after the procurement. What's relatively stable is the airplane itself. That is based on the prediction Shenyang made on the need of a target air force, after their analysis. FC-31 seems have undergo an upgrade using J-20 technologies in its new prototype to make it more attractive. However, this does not necessarily mean it is a custom made product for one particular target buyer (assuming that is Pakistan). That is the business part, Shenyang can be successful, or may not. I was saying they do have a lot of potential buyers along OBOR. FC-31 has a much wider scope/applicability when compared to FC-17. Think all Mig-29 users, at the minimal.

Stealth fighter jets is shaping up to be a seller's market for the next 30 years. What is the alternative to FC-31? Korea/Turkey?

A functional FC-31 at $100m each copy is very attractive around year 2025 compared to the alternatives, especially if the buyer country chose to align with China due to political reasons. While I have high respect for the new comers such as Japan/Turkey/Korea, I also highly doubt if they can get something done within a meaningful time-frame (before 2040), especially all three countries purchase F-35 at the same time.

Deino said:

Honestly, I have my doubts: As long as that type is not flying in a production-representative form powered by a decent engine (and no longer a dated RD-93-based design)... only if it has matured in terms of flight testing and even more if purchased by the PLAAF/PLANAF itself. We all know several fine products that simply failed due to the non-purchase of the origin-country.
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Possible solution is WS 13E engine that is now being tested .Still it is not the most advanced engine with TWR of 8:1.But at least it is domestic engine
Anybody know the status of this engine . It has been fitted on one JF17 and tested for some time now
Look like 4 stage of LP compressor and 8 stages of HP compressor and 3 turbine blade?

Hendrik_2000 said:

Possible solution is WS 13E engine that is now being tested .Still it is not the most advanced engine with TWR of 8:1.But at least it is domestic engine
Anybody know the status of this engine . It has been fitted on one JF17 and tested for some time now
Look like 4 stage of LP compressor and 8 stages of HP compressor and 3 turbine blade?

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Never the less it's great for exporting since it did fitted on one JF-17 for testing before.

kurutoga said:

A functional FC-31 at $100m each copy is very attractive around year 2025 compared to the alternatives, especially if the buyer country chose to align with China due to political reasons. While I have high respect for the new comers such as Japan/Turkey/Korea, I also highly doubt if they can get something done within a meaningful time-frame (before 2040), especially all three countries purchase F-35 at the same time.

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Hi beside developing from the new comers some of them might not want to. Sell those jets to the countries they don't want to so it's like everybody can get a piece of cake from one way or the other if they can afford the piece of cake
Thx

kurutoga said:

FC-31 has a much wider scope/applicability when compared to FC-17. Think all Mig-29 users, at the minimal.

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I disagree. Most MiG-29 users didn't buy the aircraft because it was ideal for their needs, but because it was what was available from the Soviet Union at the time. Most MiG-29 users would've preferred a lighter, single-engine platform -- like MiG-21 back in the day, or JF-17 today.

Further, the cost to acquire and effectively operate an FC-31 class aircraft is almost certainly going to be significantly greater than MiG-29.

With appropriate further investment, I think JF-17 can have a very healthy future, especially in Africa. For FC-31, beyond the obvious customer of Pakistan I think the platform's best prospects are in the relatively wealthy nations of West Asia/Middle East. That is to say, I think FC-31's prospects come down to a relatively short list of prospective customers with relatively large orders (and even contributions to the program). In terms of the number of potential customers, though, I would put JF-17 well ahead of FC-31.

Lethe said:

Further, the cost to acquire and effectively operate an FC-31 class aircraft is almost certainly going to be significantly greater than MiG-29.

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It is not about new cost to replace existing Mig29, but about what to buy once Mig-29 all retire in 10-20 years. Remember, you are up against F-35s of your neighbors and/or potential invaders.

It's a seller's market since there are very few options for affordable 5th gen fighter jets. In fact, FC-31 could be the only one for sale. IMHO, Korea/Japan/Turkey projects all have a very low probability of success. Even if they do somehow manage to build the jet, it could be much inferior to FC-31

kurutoga said:

It is not about new cost to replace existing Mig29, but about what to buy once Mig-29 all retire in 10-20 years. Remember, you are up against F-35s of your neighbors and/or potential invaders.

It's a seller's market since there are very few options for affordable 5th gen fighter jets. In fact, FC-31 could be the only one for sale. IMHO, Korea/Japan/Turkey projects all have a very low probability of success. Even if they do somehow manage to build the jet, it could be much inferior to FC-31

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FC-31 may (or may not) be the most affordable manned VLO fighter out there, but that doesn't mean that most countries will be in a position to afford it. Some countries will be priced out of the manned fighter game entirely, others will run UCAVs or non-VLO combat aircraft. And some, indeed, will buy FC-31 or other aircraft in a similar class.

I'm not saying that FC-31 is a foolish project or that it has no export prospects, only that it is a mistake to look at everyone who is flying MiG-29 class aircraft as a potential FC-31 customer. A lot of them will never be in the frame. Eritrea operates the MiG-29, but it is much more likely to be a JF-17 customer in future than it is to be an FC-31 customer.

kurutoga said:

It is not about new cost to replace existing Mig29, but about what to buy once Mig-29 all retire in 10-20 years. Remember, you are up against F-35s of your neighbors and/or potential invaders.

It's a seller's market since there are very few options for affordable 5th gen fighter jets. In fact, FC-31 could be the only one for sale. IMHO, Korea/Japan/Turkey projects all have a very low probability of success. Even if they do somehow manage to build the jet, it could be much inferior to FC-31

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The F-35 is indeed very expensive, but JF-31 is not cheap, in fact it is more expensive, why? simply to be cheap and make a profit, needs lots of units sold in a very long period.

Adding two RD-93 means its performance is pretty compromised.

African countries will not buy expensive jets because its highly prohibitive, one aircraft priced at 100 million is not cheap, if you add they need 20 and they need the extra purchases of spare parts, simulators weapons etc etc and flying hours.

Old fighters like the F-15, F-16 or MiG-29 have been produced in the thousands, so the unit price is cheap.

JF-31 can be claimed to be cheap, cheaper than F-35, but it will not make a profit unless it is sold in the hundreds.

I will explain, commercial aircraft, a E-190 is cheaper than a JF-31, in fact you can buy 3 E-195 for a single JF-31 if its price USD $100 million dollars a E-195 cost around USD $35 million dollars.

A commercial jet, every time it flies makes money, military jets do not, So a poor country has more chances of getting S-400s than stealth fighters.

If China does not buy JF-31, the likelihood it will be more successful than other countries is a joke.

For the JF-31 to be successful needs purchases from China like the F-35 has from the USA, compare for example how many F-35 the USA is buying to keep the F-35 cheap for foreign customers.

Japan or South Korea are buying dozens not hundreds, Ethiopia will buy not dozens but 9 -7 aircraft if lucky, poor countries investing in aircraft of 5th generation is almost a dream.

Take for example Argentina or Brazil, two nations of the G-20, how many fighters can afford?

JF-17 has more chances of been successful than JF-31, poor nations will buy old fighters like F-16s or Gripens.

JF-31 will be doomed if they do not get China`s purchases