Russian Su-57 Aircraft Thread (PAK-FA and IAF FGFA)

[b787]

nice video

 

[Brumby]

The program has no problem, , the second stage is the one will have a new engine, you can read about here, this is according to UAC head chief Victor Belousov, this aircraft will fly if everything is okay in 2018

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The aircraft will be introduced to the Russian Air Force in 2017, according to Victor Bondarev, head commander of the Russian Aerospace forces

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5th gen programs are highly complex and challenging programs and so delays and issues are inevitable especially when attempting for the first time. A good example is the F-35 (even after the F-117 and F-22) the amount of issues that the program had to overcome. You just have to work through the problems and eventually you will get there (with enough funding and patience). The problem with the Russian program is there are too many spokesmen giving out in my view unrealistic news on deliverables that is probably a complete disconnect to the status of the program. It is a disservice because eventually all semblance of credibility is removed.
It is rumoured that the stage one prototypes have insufficient strength in the load bearing structures and a likely reason for the lack of flight hours. Attempts to reinforce had resulted in added weight to the airframe and so these issues are being worked through. In my view, introduction of the stage two prototypes would be a good sign that these technical issues are addressed. The other troubling indicator is that T-50-5 could only be reconstituted by cannibalising parts from T-50-6. This would suggest to me that Russia lacks the precision tools within its supply chain to source the necessary parts. This doesn't bode well when you attempt to move to the next phase of LRIP.
If you overlay these issues against a 2017 service introduction. it is simply fantasy considering the hard part i.e. the sensors and avionics had barely skimmed the surface.

Let's baseline where we think the program is today and apply some aggressive estimate on program timelines to assess whether the 2017 service introduction is remotely doable. I would make some assumptions and my reasoning thereto and you are free to challenge them.

My underlying premise :
(i) Stage one prototypes had identified issues with structure integrity requiring stage two prototypes to conduct the necessary bulk of the flight regime testing.
(ii) A major assumption is made that the stage two prototypes will be the pre production series. It means there is a stable design only subject to further flight regime and stress testing. If this premise is untenable then the overall timeline will be subject to further delays.
(iii) Basic sensor and avionics testing will be conducted in parallel stream without any conflict in resourcing of available prototypes
(iv) A hand built prototype takes at least 6 to 12 months
(v) Availability of stage two prototypes in the following order
(a) T-50R - 1 on Jan 1, 2016 : For flight regime testing
(b) T-50R - 2 on Oct 1, 2016 : For avionic and sensor testing (including weapons release)
(c) T-50R - 3 on Jly 1, 2017 : For comprehensive end to end testing
(vi) A full cycle testing for each of them requires 12 months. In contrast, the F-35 took two years to complete the initial flight testing.

I would ask under what conditions would a 2017 service introduction be even remotely possible?

 

[Equation]

5th gen programs are highly complex and challenging programs and so delays and issues are inevitable especially when attempting for the first time. A good example is the F-35 (even after the F-117 and F-22) the amount of issues that the program had to overcome. You just have to work through the problems and eventually you will get there (with enough funding and patience). The problem with the Russian program is there are too many spokesmen giving out in my view unrealistic news on deliverables that is probably a complete disconnect to the status of the program. It is a disservice because eventually all semblance of credibility is removed.
It is rumoured that the stage one prototypes have insufficient strength in the load bearing structures and a likely reason for the lack of flight hours. Attempts to reinforce had resulted in added weight to the airframe and so these issues are being worked through. In my view, introduction of the stage two prototypes would be a good sign that these technical issues are addressed. The other troubling indicator is that T-50-5 could only be reconstituted by cannibalising parts from T-50-6. This would suggest to me that Russia lacks the precision tools within its supply chain to source the necessary parts. This doesn't bode well when you attempt to move to the next phase of LRIP.
If you overlay these issues against a 2017 service introduction. it is simply fantasy considering the hard part i.e. the sensors and avionics had barely skimmed the surface.

Let's baseline where we think the program is today and apply some aggressive estimate on program timelines to assess whether the 2017 service introduction is remotely doable. I would make some assumptions and my reasoning thereto and you are free to challenge them.

My underlying premise :
(i) Stage one prototypes had identified issues with structure integrity requiring stage two prototypes to conduct the necessary bulk of the flight regime testing.
(ii) A major assumption is made that the stage two prototypes will be the pre production series. It means there is a stable design only subject to further flight regime and stress testing. If this premise is untenable then the overall timeline will be subject to further delays.
(iii) Basic sensor and avionics testing will be conducted in parallel stream without any conflict in resourcing of available prototypes
(iv) A hand built prototype takes at least 6 to 12 months
(v) Availability of stage two prototypes in the following order
(a) T-50R - 1 on Jan 1, 2016 : For flight regime testing
(b) T-50R - 2 on Oct 1, 2016 : For avionic and sensor testing (including weapons release)
(c) T-50R - 3 on Jly 1, 2017 : For comprehensive end to end testing
(vi) A full cycle testing for each of them requires 12 months. In contrast, the F-35 took two years to complete the initial flight testing.

I would ask under what conditions would a 2017 service introduction be even remotely possible?

Perhaps there are other prototypes out there that are being tested without public notice to speed up the program.

 

[Air Force Brat]

Perhaps there are other prototypes out there that are being tested without public notice to speed up the program.

NYET KOMRAD! PAK-FA is a joint project with India, highly dependent on Indian development money, Master Brumby has this one nailed, but I would note that with 055 rebuilt using #6s fuselage off the line, that the first 5 prototypes have been returned to flight status. We are waiting for 6-2 to fly anytime, and that will give us a hint on how this project may progress when the -2 first flights, and how much involvement India is comfortable with after that? India has modified their initial plan from FGFA to the -2 as a first buy.

 

[b787]

NYET KOMRAD! PAK-FA is a joint project with India, highly dependent on Indian development money, Master Brumby has this one nailed, but I would note that with 055 rebuilt using #6s fuselage off the line, that the first 5 prototypes have been returned to flight status. We are waiting for 6-2 to fly anytime, and that will give us a hint on how this project may progress when the -2 first flights, and how much involvement India is comfortable with after that? India has modified their initial plan from FGFA to the -2 as a first buy.

it is not dependent on India, it is an aircraft for export, in the same way F-35 is, it is an aircraft designed in Russia for Russian needs, customized for India, but most of the design was made in Russia.

It is like the Su-30MKI and Su-30SM

PAKFA is like these aircraft

 

[b787]

Perhaps there are other prototypes out there that are being tested without public notice to speed up the program.

i do not think so, the Russians have 5 flying laboratories, they are the needed aircraft for the flight tests, their program is much, much more open than the Chinese one, they are simply saying the 2017 is the date they will start deliveries, they have a few new aircraft in their workshops, but they will fly probably next year

 

[b787]

5th gen programs are highly complex and challenging programs and so delays and issues are inevitable especially when attempting for the first time. A good example is the F-35 (even after the F-117 and F-22) the amount of issues that the program had to overcome. You just have to work through the problems and eventually you will get there (with enough funding and patience). The problem with the Russian program is there are too many spokesmen giving out in my view unrealistic news on deliverables that is probably a complete disconnect to the status of the program. It is a disservice because eventually all semblance of credibility is removed.
It is rumoured that the stage one prototypes have insufficient strength in the load bearing structures and a likely reason for the lack of flight hours. Attempts to reinforce had resulted in added weight to the airframe and so these issues are being worked through. In my view, introduction of the stage two prototypes would be a good sign that these technical issues are addressed. The other troubling indicator is that T-50-5 could only be reconstituted by cannibalising parts from T-50-6. This would suggest to me that Russia lacks the precision tools within its supply chain to source the necessary parts. This doesn't bode well when you attempt to move to the next phase of LRIP.
If you overlay these issues against a 2017 service introduction. it is simply fantasy considering the hard part i.e. the sensors and avionics had barely skimmed the surface.

Let's baseline where we think the program is today and apply some aggressive estimate on program timelines to assess whether the 2017 service introduction is remotely doable. I would make some assumptions and my reasoning thereto and you are free to challenge them.

My underlying premise :
(i) Stage one prototypes had identified issues with structure integrity requiring stage two prototypes to conduct the necessary bulk of the flight regime testing.
(ii) A major assumption is made that the stage two prototypes will be the pre production series. It means there is a stable design only subject to further flight regime and stress testing. If this premise is untenable then the overall timeline will be subject to further delays.
(iii) Basic sensor and avionics testing will be conducted in parallel stream without any conflict in resourcing of available prototypes
(iv) A hand built prototype takes at least 6 to 12 months
(v) Availability of stage two prototypes in the following order
(a) T-50R - 1 on Jan 1, 2016 : For flight regime testing
(b) T-50R - 2 on Oct 1, 2016 : For avionic and sensor testing (including weapons release)
(c) T-50R - 3 on Jly 1, 2017 : For comprehensive end to end testing
(vi) A full cycle testing for each of them requires 12 months. In contrast, the F-35 took two years to complete the initial flight testing.

I would ask under what conditions would a 2017 service introduction be even remotely possible?

Sorry, you are just giving your opinions which are not based upon real information, Russia does not hide the pace of development od PAKFA, if the program has delays, they simply have a spoke person give a press release on a TV channel like Russia Channel 24, if the T-50 has problems they will say

 

[Air Force Brat]

it is not dependent on India, it is an aircraft for export, in the same way F-35 is, it is an aircraft designed in Russia for Russian needs, customized for India, but most of the design was made in Russia.

It is like the Su-30MKI and Su-30SM

PAKFA is like these aircraft

Actually it is dependent on Indian money and support, why do you think Russia has cut their proposed buy to 12 aircraft for a test and eval squadron??? The Indians are calling them out, NO Indian pilots have flown ANY of the prototypes? The proposed FGFA is no longer a priority, but the -2 PAK-FA is, I won't be surprised to see India migrate to the F-35 if the Russians don't bring the -2 forward in a very positive way, and no 5 aircraft are not enough prototypes, but that may have to do??

It may be like the SU-30 MKI as that aircraft has a very high out of service rate, while the Indians love the airplane, they are NOT happy with its frequent break-downs and serviceability issues??

 

[b787]

Actually it is dependent on Indian money and support, why do you think Russia has cut their proposed buy to 12 aircraft for a test and eval squadron??? The Indians are calling them out, NO Indian pilots have flown ANY of the prototypes? The proposed FGFA is no longer a priority, but the -2 PAK-FA is, I won't be surprised to see India migrate to the F-35 if the Russians don't bring the -2 forward in a very positive way, and no 5 aircraft are not enough prototypes, but that may have to do??

It may be like the SU-30 MKI as that aircraft has a very high out of service rate, while the Indians love the airplane, they are NOT happy with its frequent break-downs and serviceability issues??

the number given for the deliveries, is not 12 aircraft, it depends in the statements made by the air force chief, they have said the minimum will be 12 aircraft, but they also said ideally will deliver 55, so it will depend upon several factors, your statement sorry is pretty biased, the Indians will not go for the F-35, and the main reason is the USA aircraft industry is not very generous when tech transfers are concerned, Brazil like India want tech transfers to boost their industry, in the case of Brazil they went for the Gripen even they were offered the possibility of buying F-35s and F-16s, but they knew the tech transfer was going to be limited.
So they went for Gripens; India is not different, they have built MiG-21, MiG-27s, Su-30MKI, the aircraft were built in India, even their engines were built in India, the USA never will allow that, so you will no see F-35s in Indian colors.

However the Indians and Russians press each other to get the best deal for their intertest, the Indians are partners of the PAKFA in the same way England, Japan or Canada are F-35 partners, however you do not say the US is dependent upon British or Canadian money.

Sorry, but your statements reflect a very biased view, but is understandable you like the F-22 and F-35

 

[Hyperwarp]

I don't think the PAK-FA (T-50) is depended on Indian money at all. FGFA Certainly is but that is customized for India. Better than export T-50 but obviously inferior to the RuAF version. One of the problems with the FGFA is the level of Indian participation in relation to what India is expected to spend. More participation of more money.