Russian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

The Donbas War and the Crimean Annexation are something I could discuss quite a bit since I had personal ties to the area prior to and through a year and change into the war. However, I am primarily here to learn about the Chinese military.

Russia claims it has reopened the Kerch Strait to shipping.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ping-after-ukraine-standoff-ria-idUSKCN1NV0GJ

Whether that includes Ukrainian ships or not remains to be seen.

 

I have to leave in several minutes so I'll be quick:

gazeta.ru says (https://www.gazeta.ru/army/2018/11/26/12072061.shtml) there's audio available from the yesterday's encounter, the part which appeared most recently at that link is

На дальнейших фрагментах записи становятся еще более тревожными. «Мне нужна помощь, мне нужна помощь! Такие географические координаты — 44, 51,0,37, 23, 4! Нуждаюсь в помощи, нуждаюсь в помощи!», — слышится срывающийся голос украинского моряка. Российский пограничник по рации спрашивает: «Сколько у вас раненных?» Украинский моряк не отвечает, продолжая звать на помощь и называя координаты.

На последней записи российский пограничник говорит: «Выйдите на связь! Я так понимаю, вы останавливаетесь… У вас крупнокалиберные пулеметы на борту! Всем выйти на палубу с поднятыми руками!».

as I said, I have to be quick:

good nobody got killed
gosh

 

3 Ukrainians were injured during the exchange, however, once in Russian custody, the injured Ukrainians were tended to by Russian Paramedics. At least that's what I have read in the reports, so far.

 

And as stated above, here it is !

 

Yes I saw it popup on my YT notifications when I was in class haha. Time to watch!

 

If the conflict escalates to open war, is there anything Ukraine can do to defend it self? I am totally ignorant of the capabilities they possess, but I cannot imagine they would stand a chance against Russia.

 

If the "skirmish" escalates to open war, the question to ask is "who benefits the most from an open war between Ukraine and Russia?" Because one thing is for certain, that neither Ukraine, nor Russia benefit from this war. For Ukraine, well its economy is in deep turmoil to say the least. It's gas reserves dwindling, winter is full swing and it does not have a military capable of taking on Russia. Instead of rebuilding its military, reforming its economy, approaching its neighbors for mutually beneficial trade deals and wanting peace. Ukraine is flowing against the current and things look bad for its people. As for Russia, it is doing exactly what it is suppose to, by focusing a good chunk of its resources on building its economy, despite the repetitive sanctions placed on it by the West. For Russia to go into a full blown war with Ukraine, is in no way beneficial to it. All the hard work in reconstituting its economy and slowly yet proportionately modernizing its military, would go down the drain.

The only beneficiary from an open war between Russia and Ukraine, is US-UK-NATO. That's because "they" have nothing important to lose. Ukraine to US-UK-NATO is a buffer, where it can place its short and intermediate range missiles. Think of Ukraine as a punching bag for Russia, to keep Russia preoccupied and tied down there. While US-UK-NATO hit Russia from elsewhere. And the only thorn in the side of US-UK-NATO that pricks them about Russia, is Crimea and the presence of Russian Black Sea fleet.

 

Atlantic Council fellow says US should warships to Azov Sea, after the Stand-Off at Kerch Strait

A senior fellow at the pro-NATO Atlantic Council has said the US should send naval ships into the Sea of Azov to guarantee it stays open after a skirmish between Russian and Ukrainian ships. Only problem is, that would be illegal. Anders Aslund, a Swedish economist who lives in Washington D.C. and works for the avidly anti-Russia think tank, implored the US and NATO to “react sharply” to what he called “the illegal Russian blockade of the international Sea of Azov.” Aslund’s suggestion came after Russia opened fire on and seized three Ukrainian navy boats on Sunday, accusing them of breaching the Russian maritime border. The Ukranian vessels were sailing between two Ukrainian ports: from Odessa in the Black Sea to Mariupol in the Azov Sea. The only waterway that connects these is the Kerch Strait between Crimea and mainland Russia. Kiev says it notified Moscow in advance that its navy ships would be sailing through the area.

Moscow denies that it was given warning. While both Russia and Ukraine have freedom of navigation in the Kerch Strait under a 2003 treaty, there are detailed technical rules on how vessels should pass through the narrow, complex waterway. All traffic in the area is controlled by the Crimean sea port of Kerch, and every ship should contact the facility, report her route and destination, and receive permission to sail through the Strait. Unfortunately for the Swedish economist, though he tweets with all the authority of someone who was on the ships in question himself, it seems he is lacking in this basic knowledge about the legality of his proposal. Luckily, chief foreign affairs correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, Yaroslav Trofimov, stepped in to help out, tweeting that aside from the “practical risks”which might arise from US ships rushing into the kerfuffle, it would also be “illegal without Russian permission.”

Trofimov cited the 2003 treaty between Russia and Ukraine which declared the Azov Sea to be “internal waters” and which only guarantees freedom of navigation for Russian and Ukrainian military vessels. There is a practical problem with the proposal as well: the Azov Sea is simply too shallow. US Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class destroyers have a draft of 9.3 meters (30 feet), while the *average* depth of the Azov Sea is only 7 meters (23 feet), with the deepest point being twice that. Aslund, who frequently raises eyebrows among more knowledgeable Russia experts and is known for his dramatic hot takes on Twitter, also compared the incident to Adolf Hitler’s invasion of Poland — so the complexities of reality are unlikely to deter him. He also claimed that a quiet response to the incident from US officials meant that President Donald Trump must have “strictly ordered” US officials not to speak about it.

The Atlantic Council fellow also found himself in a heated spat with multiple Moscow-based journalists and correspondents last week after he scolded a Washington Post reporter for daring to write an article suggesting that some Ukrainians harbored positive feelings toward Vladimir Lenin. Journalists from the Washington Post, Financial Times and the Guardian were unimpressed that Aslund appeared to be implying that Moscow-based journalists are unable to write authoritatively about Ukraine and that they should refrain from criticizing the country, lest it offend him or his group of friends. Russian journalist Alexey Kovalev also waded into the debate to remind Aslund that debate around post-Soviet identity in Ukraine is alive and well, regardless of how he personally feels.

Since the Kerch Strait incident, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has imposed martial law in the country — a move which could allow him to call off scheduled elections and remain in power. Moscow has accused Kiev of provoking the entire incident to win sympathies in the West and to help Poroshenko remain in office.

https://www.rt.com/news/444922-anders-aslund-azov-sea/

 

The honest truth is Russia would stomp Ukraine and the West would tut-tut, tell Russia it was being bad and slap sanctions on.

Ukraine would make it more expensive than the Russians think it would be. Strelkov, Motorola and Givi found the Ukrainians far more tenacious than they thought possibleand it took the intervention of the Russian army to save their William Walker-esque filibuster attempt.

The Donbass War the seizure of Crimea has done more to weld Ukraine together as a nation than anything else possibly could have. I used to hear the Left Bankers used to hate and badmouth the Right Bankers. The Crimeans and the Carpathians used to say nastier stuff still. The Russians used to be viewed as family. Well, someone ought to have reminded them of Cain and Abel. The Russians certainly did later.

However, the Russians outgun the Ukrainians in such a huge way, the Ukrainians have no real chance of winning.

*IF*, and only if, Russia did go to war, it would only take up through the Dniepr to the East and swallow everything down south to connect to Transdniestria in Moldova. It would probably take Kiev for historical reasons though. Anyone IDing as Ukrainian would probably get deported to the rump Ukraine.

 

Sunday at 8:49 PM

now
US lawmakers urge Trump to arm Ukraine, break silence on Russian blockade https://www.defensenews.com/congres...rm-ukraine-break-silence-on-russian-blockade/

... goes on below due to size limit