Russian efforts to sell the Su-57/PAK FA to China

Deino said:

No, but even more I find it telling how this all evolved in the latest days ... indeed an incredible PR stunt; a truly amazing story:

It all started with some news, rumours and suggestions which from day to day evolved - especially in certain forums - to ever more fantastic "fact": and I can imagine what's next:

- Russia might prepare the Su-57 for export as the Su-57E TRUE
- Russia offers this type to Turkey and the ME NOT HEARD YET BUT MAYBE
- Russia offers this type to India, ... TRUE
- Russia offers this type to China TRUE
- China might acquire the Su-57 POSSIBLE BUT NOT HIGH
- China will purchase the Su-57 FALSE
- China already ordered the Su-57 FALSE
- China cancelled its own J-20 project in favour of the Su-57 FALSE
- the J-20 is a failure FALSE

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I conclude you imagine as above.

Phead128 said:

China wouldn't be stupid to destroy the export potential of J-31E by endorsing the Su-57E.

J-31E is a direct competitor to Su-57E for the same markets, and endorsing the Su-57E sends the wrong signals to potential customers of J-31E.

Also,

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, how hard is it for PLAAF to make dummy versions of Su-57?

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It's not for DACT. DACT is Dissimilar Air Combat Training. That Air part meaning a flying element is required.
The only way that mockup flies is in the Belly of a C17 or C5M.
It's most likely use is for on the ground familiarizing and Photo recon training.

SteelBird said:

I conclude you imagine as above.

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Surly not and I'm sorry if You misunderstood my post. However I'm more than surprised that some - and even more in other forums - rate this as an already done deal and so my intention was to mock this "line of conclusions".

Even more surprising is that some rate the absence of a denial from the Chinese side already as a proof, that there is something in the making ...

Why are people here discussing the potential near future export of what is an unfinished fighter? Su-57 is barely a step above Mig 1.44 and Su-47 demonstrators at the moment. How many are in service with RuAF? Maybe when the RuAF receives their second or third squadron, we will see China signing deals. Early days to begin even speculating on this. Just because something is supposedly offered on the market doesn't mean it's got customers already. China doesn't like officially saying anything concrete. Silence cannot be used to draw any conclusion as Deino has mentioned above.

For J-31's export considerations to weigh in on any future Su-57E purchase, the J-31 has to be an actual finished product. So far there's been no evidence any serious work is even taking place on this project. No country that may be interested in purchasing J-31 has the funds to complete the project. SAC and AVIC may not bother investing in it on the off chance that when the fighter is completed, there will be customers for it. If PLANAF or PLAAF aren't going to make the gamble and potentially lose out all those resources on an unnecessary fighter that doesn't add all that much value, then that project is done. SAC shall focus on better things.

Some say PLANAF's only choice for 5th gen carrier fighter is J-31. This isn't 100% true is it? We aren't really qualified to say whether J-20 can be carrier borne or not. Type 003 and further are supposed to be close to twice the tonnage of the first carrier and will supposedly receive EMALS if not at least some catapult system. Range, detection, and payload advantages may very well be worth having over a few more fighters onboard. For J-31 to be a scaled down version of J-20, it will cost nearly as much. It will be similar to the Mig-29 vs Su-27 debate. The numbers worked out to be well in favour of Su-27 which offered far more capability in frontline duties than Mig-29 (yes they have different mission profiles) for relatively little cost increases. Despite my doubts, the best chance J-31 has for development is if PLANAF goes for it. If that happens, export options may become a possibility. This all depends on WS-19 timeline and capability. J-31 certainly seems to be behind Su-57 in development and at its present size, they occupy different niches within the same market. If J-31 is scaled up for PLANAF carriers and then an export model is made, we may see some exciting competition between it and Su-57E. Hopefully with both sides disclosing their specifications and some tender results.

I think a naval J-20 right now is highly unlikely. The J-20 is underpowered to operate in a STOBAR configuration. It would also need strengthening to operate on a carrier which would make it even heavier and worsen the underpower issues even more. While this is not impossible after it gets the WS-15 engine by then the FC-31 might be closer to something usable and likely will be designed with the naval application in mind from the get go.

China does not have the luxury of purchasing an expensive squadron of Su-57E just to study it's "flight and aeronautic characteristics" when it has tons of vintage J-7s to replace, urgent need navalized stealth carrier jets, zero stealth bombers, need for strong reliable domestic jet engines, and tons of Sukhoi flanker platforms to digest/indigenize. All these programs compete for limited $$$$ resources.

On the list of priority items, I would say getting Su-57E ranks far below the above priorities.

Not really. The J-7 (single engines) or the stealth bombers (quad engines) don't even compete with it.
You might have an argument with regards to the Flankers. But how many more Flankers does China need really?

I would argue only the J-16 and even that production might run out before the Su-57 becomes production ready.
Also if someone ever designed a dual seater fighter bomber variant of the J-20 I think the J-16 production would be cut short.
The initial Su-57 isn't even a dual seater. So one might argue it does not compete with the J-16 either.

The Su-57 would compete with the J-11, Su-35, and their ilk.

The best is the enemy of the good enough.
Or should I say the Su-57 is also a hedge against programs, like the WS-15, which might run into delays or even get cancelled.

gelgoog said:

Not really. The J-7 (single engines) or the stealth bombers (quad engines) don't even compete with it.

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In terms of resource consumption, they are certainly competitors for finite economic resources. (re-read my post)
The priority for a domestic engine or navalized stealth jet carrier is far more important than a Su-57E, all else equal, given limited financial resources.

gelgoog said:

You might have an argument with regards to the Flankers. But how many more Flankers does China need really?

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Would rather plow an extra $3 billion to produce 100 modern J-10's to replace 100 obsolete J-7s, rather than $3 billion for a squadron of 24 Su-57E that has all the logistical problems of systems integration, new training program, etc...

Would rather plow an extra $3 billion for WS-15 R&D than $3 billion for a squadron of Su-57E, which would make J-20 with 2nd gen engines highly competitive to Su-57E.

gelgoog said:

The best is the enemy of the good enough.

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China doesn't have the luxury of unlimited money, so using Su-35S as close-quarter OPFOR equivalent of Su-57E is sufficient.

If China had an unlimited budget, of course getting Su-57E for the miniscule knowledge gain is good, but China has to spend it's money wisely on important projects.

Totally agree there Phead... that is unless the Su-57 really IS just that amazing. We're all ignoring that possibility. Also ignoring the possibility that PLAAF's fighters including J-20 is really abysmal. That second possibility is far less likely for all the obvious reasons.

ougoah said:

Totally agree there Phead... that is unless the Su-57 really IS just that amazing. We're all ignoring that possibility. Also ignoring the possibility that PLAAF's fighters including J-20 is really abysmal. That second possibility is far less likely for all the obvious reasons.

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Bub, can we NOT turn this into a bash J-20 thread, the J-20 is a very fine airplane, and there are nearly two dozen in service, thanks in advance!