Russia sells S-400 systems to China

Jeff Head said:

I agree that the system is going to effect how nations plan and react.

But the ROC can impact and degrade those systems and their effectiveness when operating at range targeting or intercepting aircraft over their island from the mainland.

My principle points still stands...it is HIGHLY unlikely, and would be folly, for the PRC to place these systems in a position to act like an offensive weapon and seek to control flight over other nation's sovereign air space.

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S-400 is mobile . One day it could be stored somewhere in central China, and other day it could be deployed on prepared position across Taiwan . China could deploy S-400 to monitor air traffic over Taiwan (with limitations in coverage below certain attitudes and in radar shadows) like any other radar system .
Would they actually use it , i.e. would they fire on aircraft over Taiwan ? Well no, unless the situation escalate to the point of war . But remember that China considers Taiwan to be part of itself . So, from Chinese perspective, there is no legal reason not to use it when they decide to use it .

From Taiwanese perspective , it's another thing they would need to worry about . To put it bluntly , airspace over Taiwan above certain altitudes would be a danger zone 24/7 , no matter how far are Chinese fighters .

thunderchief said:

From Taiwanese perspective , it's another thing they would need to worry about . To put it bluntly , airspace over Taiwan above certain altitudes would be a danger zone 24/7 , no matter how far are Chinese fighters .

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...and that is the whole point.

Clearly in a war scenario, they would move them in and use them wherever they needed.

But they are not at war...and do not want to go to war, and things do not occur in a vacuum.

Taiwan, regardless of how it is "viewed," does operate as an independent nation,. It has its own legislature. Its own President. Its own armed forces. There are trade agreements. The US Congress has voted to come to its aide in the event of aggression.

The PRC knows all of these things and, as I said, will not want to escalate things needlessly...particularly when economically and through tourism and trade they are already moving steadily towards peaceful unification.

These points are even more telling when it comes to places like India, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam. As I said, it would be absolute folly and would unite all of these nations against the PRC at a time when they are trying to work towards more peaceful relations with all of them.

PanAsian said:

Much of the coverage and discourse about China getting the S-400 is full of China threat bias.

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Oh, I see...now I am mongering up fear of China when people are suggesting that China use an air defense system to blatantly threaten the air space of other countries?

Thank goodness the Chinese leadership is more wise.

PanAsian said:

Any SAM system a country has can possibly cover airspace over that country's neighbors. If that's the case then you might as well say US carriers should always stay at least as far away as its aircraft's and their munitions' range from other countries (who are not allies).

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Now you are comparing apples and oranges!

On one hand we are talking about offensive weapons, used offensively, and which remain at all times outside the soverien air space of another nation...on the other hand we are talking about a defensive weapons being used offensively to control and hazard and threaten the peaceful operations of a nation in its own sovereign air space.

If you cannot, or are unwilling to see that difference, then there is no sense talking about it.

But that is precisely what I am talking about.

Jeff Head said:

Taiwan, regardless of how it is "viewed," does operate as an independent nation,. It has its own legislature. Its own President. Its own armed forces. There are trade agreements. The US Congress has voted to come to its aide in the event of aggression.

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Nope, Taiwan is neither truly independent nor viewed that way by the vast majority of nations on Earth. Indeed, Taiwan is an automomous Province with a representative government and powerful land, air, and sea National Guards, but it has no freedom of foreign policy. Semantics is important here, Jeff, and Taiwan definitely doesn't operate as an independent nation.

Franklin said:

When I read the headline I thought finally someone gets it that China is not buying the S-400 missile system. But then I read the article it talks about how the S-400 is going to be used and what version China might get.

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Wow, a good J. Michael Cole article, that's certainly a blue moon. It's like he's trying to make up for the political fan fiction the National Interest inexplicably keeps on publishing, and that F/A-18 farce.

Blackstone said:

Nope, Taiwan is neither truly independent nor viewed that way by the vast majority of nations on Earth. Indeed, Taiwan is an automomous Province with a representative government and powerful land, air, and sea National Guards, but it has no freedom of foreign policy. Semantics is important here, Jeff, and Taiwan definitely doesn't operate as an independent nation.

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Yes...I know that is the party line...but we both know that is not the reality.

The reality is that they have their own government of elected officials. There is no interference or sway from the PRC in those elections. They have their own military...it cannot at this point, and would not be "called" up by the national government...at all.

I have worked in Taiwan for months on end...and the majority...the vast majority of the people there would not characterize their government or their military forces in the way you just did.

In addition, the US congress clearly does not feel that way, otherwise there would be no need for the Taiwan Relations Act.

Now, do not get me wrong, it is clear that things are moving that way...and that is what China desires and what the people on Taiwan will ultimately accept...but it is not going to happen just because someone says so, or because people characterize it that way.

It will happen precisely because it comes about peacefully, and with the recognized benefit by the people on Taiwan to the actual act of them choosing to become a part of the PRC.

I see that in the future as things go like they are going...but it has not happened yet.

And, quite frankly, and the focus of these comments, an act by the PRC to place active S-400 batteries on the Chinese coast to be able to control the air space over, say, Taipei would be one of the surest ways for the PRC to ruin the good progress that is being made towards that eventual goal.

Jeff Head said:

Yes...I know that is the party line...but we both know that is not the reality.

The reality is that they have their own government of elected officials. There is no interference or sway from the PRC in those elections. They have their own military...it cannot at this point, and would not be "called" up by the national government...at all.

I have worked in Taiwan for months on end...and the majority...the vast majority of the people there would not characterize their government or their military forces in the way you just did.

In addition, the US congress clearly does not feel that way, otherwise there would be no need for the Taiwan Relations Act.

Now, do not get me wrong, it is clear that things are moving that way...and that is what China desires and what the people on Taiwan will ultimately accept...but it is not going to happen just because someone says so, or because people characterize it that way.

It will happen precisely because it comes about peacefully, and with the recognized benefit by the people on Taiwan to the actual act of them choosing to become a part of the PRC.

I see that in the future as things go like they are going...but it has not happened yet.

And, quite frankly, and the focus of these comments, an act by the PRC to place active S-400 batteries on the Chinese coast to be able to control the air space over, say, Taipei would be one of the surest ways for the PRC to ruin the good progress that is being made towards that eventual goal.

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Completely agree. Plus not to mention China did tried the hard ball approach back in 1995-1996 by firing a set of missiles over Taiwan intending to intimidate the Taiwanese electorate in the run-up to the . And it backfired tremendously as Taiwanese went to the poll in record number (76%!) to support Lee. It laid the foundation for the anti-Chinese sentiment amongst the younger generations of Taiwanese and nowadays it is prevalent. Chinese leadership has since learnt its lesson and switched its tactics to a more subtle off-handed charm-plus-carrot-and-stick approach but the damage is already done.

Ultra said:

Completely agree. Plus not to mention China did tried the hard ball approach back in 1995-1996 by firing a set of missiles over Taiwan intending to intimidate the Taiwanese electorate in the run-up to the

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. And it backfired tremendously as Taiwanese went to the poll in record number (76%!) to support Lee. It laid the foundation for the anti-Chinese sentiment amongst the younger generations of Taiwanese and nowadays it is prevalent. Chinese leadership has since learnt its lesson and switched its tactics to a more subtle off-handed charm-plus-carrot-and-stick approach but the damage is already done.

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You're mistaken if you believe PRC would do nothing should the DPP defeats KMT and pursues independence with vigor; that choice no longer lies with Taiwan, and hasn't since Nixon's grand bargain with Mao in 1972. I'm not sure of many things with the PRC, but one thing I'm 100% certain is if Taiwan declares independence, Mainland would use whatever political, economic, and military might to bring the rebellious province to heel.

Jeff Head said:

Yes...I know that is the party line...but we both know that is not the reality.

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It's more than the party line, Jeff, it's reality 101. Taiwan is one of the few places I could think of where Mainland would initiate total war should it or outside powers foment de jure independence. Not even Obama is reckless enough to play with that fire.

Blackstone said:

It's more than the party line, Jeff, it's reality 101. Taiwan is one of the few places I could think of where Mainland would initiate total war should it or outside powers foment de jure independence. Not even Obama is reckless enough to play with that fire.

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Well, IMHO, it is not 101 at all, and I believe your ownwords lend credence to that fact.

"it or outside powers foment de jure independence"

The opposite corollary is also true if the PRC unilaterally moved to force the ROCN into unification by force of arms. The US would react strongly...militarily...if that occurred, as may other nations in the region. The PRC recognizes this, and respects that possibility.

If Taiwan were already a fully recognized, actual day to day province of the PRC...such statements and realities would not be necessary.

No, the PRC government has come to understand that the best way to move towards unification is to do so as they are doing. If they do...ultimately they will achieve that goal because the people of Taiwan will chose to do so, and it will be natural and peaceful

Until that day comes, the people on Taiwan will continue to hold their own elections without PRC influence (and the last time the PRC tried to overtly influence it, it backfired in), the military forces on Taiwan will continue to modernize, exercise, and operate without PRC direction, and trade with other nations will continue without the PRC regulation

But now we have strayed far away from the S-400 discussion. My only point was that it would be folly for the PRC to exert forceful influence over other people and their air space with the S-400. I stand by that conviction.

As to this entire PRC/ROC discussion, it is getting political in my opinion and this will be my last word on it here.