Chinese semiconductor industry

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european_guy

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Biden Administration Set to Further Tighten Chipmaking Exports to China. The government has briefed US companies about the plan, telling them that it expects to announce the new restrictions as early as next month, according to people familiar with the situation. The rules may as much as double the number of machines that require special licenses for export, creating fresh hurdles for makers of the equipment such as Applied Materials Inc.
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If confirmed this is a bad news. The clear target here is ASML....and SMIC.

ASML is going to ban the most advanced DUV immersion machines at the same node level of the banned US equipment, i.e for nodes below 20/16nm.

This is not a random thought, but is the official position of ASML CEO and, we can assume, of the Dutch government during the negotiations with US.

So to workaround this, US will move up the technological threshold of banned US equipment to include the whole DUV immersion range, i.e. up to 28nm included....and of course, the day after they put into effect this new rule, they will knock at the Dutch government's door.

For US toolmakers is not a big loss, because they are out anyhow or will be soon. Moreover the localization efforts of Chinese firms have already almost closed the gap at 28nm for a large part of US equipment.

For ASML instead this would be a heavy blow. The biggest impact I see is on the big order of ASML machines that SMIC (supposedly) made in November last year with delivery in 2024. IMO US is aiming at stopping that.

For China it means to wait until the end of 2024 for 28nm in volume production and more or less another 1/2 years for 14nm/16nm.
 
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Zichan

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You are talking about the throughput which is a combination of power of the ArF laser and the speed of the wafer stage, he is referring to the overlay matching accuracy is which accurate interferometers play a big role along the accurate matching of the alignment marks.
Regarding the laser, RSLaser ArF excimer laser already archived 60W 6KHZ according to sources which is good enough for high throughput manufacturing,

View attachment 108877
In order to keep the same overlay while increasing throughput it is necessary to improve the “accuracy” of the system. It is possible to increase throughput at the sacrifice of overlay, but that is rarely desirable.

For example, the 2050i has improved wafer deformation control, measurement and prediction. The rapid acceleration during step and scan deforms the wafer on the nanoscale as does the illumination. All of this has impact on overlay. The system needs to be able to extremely accurately locate the wafer which is the job of the alignment subsystem. This it needs to be able to do in presence of a wide range of structures on the wafer and in less time if it is to meet increased throughput.

I didn’t find any mention of the interferometers in the critical improvements introduced to NXT:2050i. Maybe they were already good enough?

Source:
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Eventine

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Modern US sanction laws cover those sort of loopholes. It's one of the oldest trick in the book. Even if it does work, it still involves a lot of work and there's always the possibility of said loopholes getting patched out and your company being cut off overnight.

There are. Not a lot of movement now, but will probably ramp up as relationships between China-America get worse. Also, it's not like it needs to be America, they can easily get one of their client states to do it for them. Russia thought that Europe won't be able to find replacement to their oil and gas too....
You're thinking too much in terms of commercial applications and market share. The main reason the US wants to deny China advanced chip making capabilities isn't because of a petty fight over trade profits. It's because advanced chips enable strategic capabilities that the US would very much like to monopolize - specifically 4th Industrial Revolution technologies like AI, IoT, robotics, AR, 5G/6G, as well as related military applications. It's the national security establishment making the calls, not the commerce department. If it were commerce focused, the US wouldn't be encouraging China to make its own chips, it'd do what it's done for the past four decades, which is to frustrate every Chinese effort at indigenizing chip production by making it easy for Chinese companies to just buy what it wanted.

That strategy worked so incredibly well at ensuring that no Chinese competitor ever emerged in chip production, that there's no reason at all why the US would switch from it, but for the fact that the national security people couldn't tolerate China having access to high-end chips any more.
 

Overbom

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;);) Photoresist war is starting
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How accurate are the below statements:
According to a November report by brokerage Zheshang Securities, the ratio of local supply in legacy-grade photoresists, such as G-line and I-line, is around 30 per cent. However, this domestic supply ratio drops to 10 per cent for KrF photoresists and less than 2 per cent for high-level Arf and EUV-use photoresists.
The report states it will be difficult for China to catch up because the country lacks key raw materials, such as “photoresist monomer, resin and photosensitizer” as well as testing and verification equipment
 

PopularScience

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If confirmed this is a bad news. The clear target here is ASML....and SMIC.

ASML is going to ban the most advanced DUV immersion machines at the same node level of the banned US equipment, i.e for nodes below 20/16nm.

This is not a random thought, but is the official position of ASML CEO and, we can assume, of the Dutch government during the negotiations with US.

So to workaround this, US will move up the technological threshold of banned US equipment to include the whole DUV immersion range, i.e. up to 28nm included....and of course, the day after they put into effect this new rule, they will knock at the Dutch government's door.

For US toolmakers is not a big loss, because they are out anyhow or will be soon. Moreover the localization efforts of Chinese firms have already almost closed the gap at 28nm for a large part of US equipment.

For ASML instead this would be a heavy blow. The biggest impact I see is on the big order of ASML machines that SMIC (supposedly) made in November last year with delivery in 2024. IMO US is aiming at stopping that.

For China it means to wait until the end of 2024 for 28nm in volume production and more or less another 1/2 years for 14nm/16nm.
28nm will be mass produced this July. Follow by 14nm next July.

More than 20 units per year, including dry and immersion.
 

PopularScience

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How accurate are the below statements:
We just discussed manomer few days ago. China company is key supplier of manomer.

 

tphuang

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In order to keep the same overlay while increasing throughput it is necessary to improve the “accuracy” of the system. It is possible to increase throughput at the sacrifice of overlay, but that is rarely desirable.

For example, the 2050i has improved wafer deformation control, measurement and prediction. The rapid acceleration during step and scan deforms the wafer on the nanoscale as does the illumination. All of this has impact on overlay. The system needs to be able to extremely accurately locate the wafer which is the job of the alignment subsystem. This it needs to be able to do in presence of a wide range of structures on the wafer and in less time if it is to meet increased throughput.

I didn’t find any mention of the interferometers in the critical improvements introduced to NXT:2050i. Maybe they were already good enough?

Source:
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Probably already good enough. I think Havok was saying that everything basically needs to get more accurate as you move up. The current iteration of DUVi is good enough for 14nm process with double exposure, but I'm sure more improvement is needed for N+1 or 7nm process.
How accurate are the below statements:
I literally just posted on this 2 days ago. Xuzhou B&C has 18% global market share on Photoresist Monomers and supplies 5 major Photoresist producers in Japan & Korea.
The big issue right now is capacity and also validating.

Nata recently just came out with a very embarrassing Q&A where they said they have 25t Arf plant ready but still need to be validated and that it takes 18 months to validate. I guess we can conclude they are going to not be all that competitive.

They have Xuzhou B&C, Shanghai Sinyang, RA Chem & Jinrui all at various stages of validating and getting orders from customers on Arf Photoresist. sub 14nm photoresist by 2024 should be no problem. Production ramp up is an issue they will need to figure.
If confirmed this is a bad news. The clear target here is ASML....and SMIC.

ASML is going to ban the most advanced DUV immersion machines at the same node level of the banned US equipment, i.e for nodes below 20/16nm.

This is not a random thought, but is the official position of ASML CEO and, we can assume, of the Dutch government during the negotiations with US.

So to workaround this, US will move up the technological threshold of banned US equipment to include the whole DUV immersion range, i.e. up to 28nm included....and of course, the day after they put into effect this new rule, they will knock at the Dutch government's door.

For US toolmakers is not a big loss, because they are out anyhow or will be soon. Moreover the localization efforts of Chinese firms have already almost closed the gap at 28nm for a large part of US equipment.

For ASML instead this would be a heavy blow. The biggest impact I see is on the big order of ASML machines that SMIC (supposedly) made in November last year with delivery in 2024. IMO US is aiming at stopping that.

For China it means to wait until the end of 2024 for 28nm in volume production and more or less another 1/2 years for 14nm/16nm.
As usual with any Bloomberg article, it's not worth commenting on until we see what things look like. So far the official position of ASML is that they do not expect sanctions to affect their 2023 sales. And that they expect anything older than 2000i to be allowed, but we will have to see. I frankly don't know where you got all this other stuff from.

As someone who has been on this thread for a long time, you should know that Bloomberg and SCMP articles are shit.

btw, the current goal for SMIC is to have full 14nm line by end of 2024. I showed you earlier that SN2 plant is going to basically be complete by July 1st, 2024, The initial lines will be using stocked up ASML machines, but they will also likely be validating full domestic process after that.
 

european_guy

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As usual with any Bloomberg article, it's not worth commenting on until we see what things look like. So far the official position of ASML is that they do not expect sanctions to affect their 2023 sales. And that they expect anything older than 2000i to be allowed, but we will have to see. I frankly don't know where you got all this other stuff from.

As someone who has been on this thread for a long time, you should know that Bloomberg and SCMP articles are shit.

btw, the current goal for SMIC is to have full 14nm line by end of 2024. I showed you earlier that SN2 plant is going to basically be complete by July 1st, 2024, The initial lines will be using stocked up ASML machines, but they will also likely be validating full domestic process after that.

I know Bloomberg, among many others, is not reliable and has a strong anti-china agenda. Indeed I wrote "if confirmed".

Regarding the big order of SMIC to ASML at the end of last year, I remember I read here in the forum a couple of weeks ago, but now I am not able to find the source.

Regarding delivery SMEEE DUV 28nm machine, we discussed at length around havoc words. For instance this is a data point, there are more:


According to havoc, DUV immersion machine, currently at SMIC's, will be delivered to customer "soon" for testing but not for mass production. From delivery to mass production usually 12-18 months occurs. Also this has been discussed at length.
 

tphuang

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I know Bloomberg, among many others, is not reliable and has a strong anti-china agenda. Indeed I wrote "if confirmed".
It's really not worth talking about. If even you are falling for this shit, I might actually have to ban Bloomberg articles intl the future.

Regarding the big order of SMIC to ASML at the end of last year, I remember I read here in the forum a couple of weeks ago, but now I am not able to find the source.
The big order last year was for 28nm production. like 1970i or 1960i iirc. I don't think that will be affected.

Their 2050i order is likely placed a while back and they want it to be accelerated.
Regarding delivery SMEEE DUV 28nm machine, we discussed at length around havoc words. For instance this is a data point, there are more:


According to havoc, DUV immersion machine, currently at SMIC's, will be delivered to customer "soon" for testing but not for mass production. From delivery to mass production usually 12-18 months occurs. Also this has been discussed at length.
Looks like DUVi has already been delivered to multiple customers. we know icrd for sure based on his comments. Likely also smic based on that recent award for domestic 28nm equipments. Remember he said scanner is getting validated at multiple fabs.

The guowang factory is coming online in q3. So by next q3, things should be ramped up.
 
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