dis is a pretty good not soo biased american report about wut america should do
Meeting China’s Threat
by Adam Teiichi Yoshida
The long-term threat to American security is China’s forward march towards Superpower status. Terrorists like al-Qaeda can kill Americans, but they can’t consign America to second place in the world. China can.
There are nearly a billion and a half people in China. If they attained even a relatively modest per capita GDP of $5000, they’d easily be able to fully challenge American economic dominance. However, there’s no theoretical limit. Nations like South Korea went from subsistence-level economies to Western-level per capita incomes in two generations. China’s about half-way through that process. There’s literally no way to know where China’s ascent could end.
I do not foresee a military threat from China in the near-term (save, perhaps, in the case of Taiwan). The Chinese are too smart for that. The real danger isn’t that the Chinese will become militarily aggressive: it’s that they won’t. The real danger is that the Chinese will prove capable of overtaking the United States and becoming the world’s preeminent power through peaceful competition, rather than force.
This threat demands a multi-pronged approach: military-economic-diplomatic-political.
The military response to China’s threat is obvious. The Armed Forces need to be prepared to confront and beat China.
It’s obvious to me that there’s no point in even trying to build up the ground forces necessary to fight a land war in Asia. We can’t possibly build an army to fight and defeat the Chinese on their home ground.
Remember: China’s economy heavily relies on both exports for foreign exchange and imports of raw materials. You wouldn’t think it from looking at a map, but China’s economic power is dependent upon maritime trade.
Thus, if it ever comes to war against the People’s Republic, the solution is self-evident: a naval blockade combined with the power to strike targets within China itself. If the United States Navy is capable of sinking the People’s Liberation Army Navy to the bottom of the sea (and US Air Power capable of defending American forces from Chinese land-based air forces), then China’s economic power will rapidly collapse.
On ground, China’s military options are limited, at best in terms of a war against the United States. Who is China going to invade? Russia? India? Vietnam? Korea? Let them try.
A naval build-up is the long-term solution to ensuring America’s ability to counter Chinese moves. The ideal mix would feature US Attack Submarines capable of sinking Chinese ships and US Guided Missile Submarines and Surface ships capable of striking inshore backed by a powerful US Carrier fleet, capable of both roles. The United States Navy could easily impose a near-total blockade against the Chinese coast.
On the economic front, we need to make a realistic assessment of China’s economic position. For all of its future potential, the present economic significance of the People’s Republic is heavily overrated. Japan, for example, holds nearly $720 Billion in US Bonds, as compared to China’s $175 Billion. Taiwan is believed to hold nearly half of what the entire mainland holds.
Similarly, the total of US Exports to China in 2004 was only $35 Billion. US imports from China accounted for about $197 Billion.
The latter is, of course, an absurd number. Now, in principle, I’m opposed to trade protectionism. But to have a trade ratio like that is simply a sign that something is totally out of control. It makes good sense to begin to gradually place restrictions on US-China trade, before those numbers grow any further.
It is on the diplomatic front that action is most evidently called for. Chinese diplomats have recently taken to whining about attempts at “containment†against China. They ought to be whining: containment is exactly the approach called for here.
The emergence of the China threat has been a major factor in the recent strengthening of US-Japan ties. This avenue must be pursued further.
In particular, the United States needs to look at developing an anti-Chinese alliance with India. Every possible step to foster Indo-Chinese enmity should be taken. The United States should even, over the long-term, prioritize an alliance with India over an alliance with Pakistan, even if it means countenancing an Indians strike against Pakistan.
This is simply a matter of what each nation has to offer. Pakistan is probably only going to be useful as long as General Musharaff is in power. After that, Pakistan becomes the prime security concern of the United States. An Indian nuclear strike against Pakistan would probably solve a lot of issues for the US.
The possibility of a Russo-American alliance against China should also be explored, though I’m less optimistic about this prospect than I once was. Russia is in a long-term decline and it knows that it’s incapable of resisting a Chinese advance. In particular, Siberia is being flooded with Chinese who’ve crossed the border to work and who are, in many areas, rapidly supplanting the original inhabitants.
Finally, there are political matters. It’s worth remembering that China’s recent prosperity has hardly been evenly spread. In essence, there’s been an accumulating of wealth by a certain segment of individuals. This accumulation has regional issues too, I’d add. I recently read a story about a part of China were state officials were excited because people had recently begun using toilet paper in notable quantities. Not everywhere is Beijing or Shanghai.
Some days I wonder if it wouldn’t be such a bad thing if we covertly worked on stirring up reactionary communist sentiments in rural China. The Cultural Revolution wasn’t that long ago, I’m sure it wouldn’t be that hard to find some people eager to hang the bourgeoisie.
As well, China has internal issues with Moslem terrorists as we do. It wouldn’t be all that bad to try and run a few covert operations to redirect terrorist sentiment in those areas.
It’s worth remembering: China’s advance could come quickly. We need to be prepared to act now, lest we wake up one day and discover ourselves to be living in a world dominated by China.
Not a bad idea but we know that nobody likes living under the feet of giants.