Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!

Finn McCool said:

I sensed that the Russians had their nose bloodied at some point like that in the time in between the Georgian retreat from South Ossetia and the Georgian retreat from Gori because of the Interior Ministry statement I mentioned earlier and because the Russians paused then and did not really attack forward for about 36 hrs.

Its interesting how we manage to piece together a more complete narrative of what actually happened on the ground based on news, rumours and analysis.

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Just my opinion, but I don't think the Russians originally intended to push very deep into Georgian territory had the Georgians actually not fled so fast. Since Gori and Poti were practically empty, there were no disincentives to occupy those cities. There are two reasons for Georgia to withdraw so rapidly. One is that a second front in Abkhazia caused the Georgian leadership to freak out, as they were now vulnerable to a two pronged attack with no aid from the West in sight. I also brought up the possibility that it was a bait to draw the Russians into Gori on purpose to score political points and possibly invite a Western military intervention. Whatever the case may be, I believe that the Georgian president would have gotten his money's worth had he ordered his troops to hold out in Gori, for a Russian attack in that case would truly constitute an invasion of Georgian proper and had much more potential for escalation.

towed the missile boat Dioskuria, one of the navy's most sophisticated vessels, out of sight of observers. A loud explosion was heard minutes later.

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The Dioskuria was an ex-Hellenic Navy Combattante II class FAC donated to Georgia.

utelore said:

Russian combat doctrine taught........

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You are making a lot of fanciful assumptions (feeding your own preconceptions) which do not correspond to the facts on the ground.

The Georgians didn't "bloody" anybody....they got ROUTED big time within 48-72 hrs. The Russians are parading around the country freely, entering bases, destroying and confiscating equipment without breaking a sweat.

You will find that the casualty ratio is HEAVILY in Russia's favour also

Husar said:

The Georgians didn't "bloody" anybody....they got ROUTED big time within 48-72 hrs. The Russians are parading around the country freely, entering bases, destroying and confiscating equipment without breaking a sweat.

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I suggest that you read earlier posts; as I said earlier under modern conventional battle conditions, it is nearly impossible for both sides to hold up for more than a few days. This is especially true when one side has a commanding advantage in air power, as in Georgia. So the fact that the battle only lasted about two and a half days does not mean the Georgian Army was completely routed and crushed. Operationally crippled, yes. Lost most of their heavy equipment, yes. Defeated, yes. However it is not entirely correct to say that the battle was totally one sided and that the Georgians did not stand and fight with effect around Tshkinvalli and/or Gori.

Hours after the signing, Russia's Foreign Ministry warned that Moscow's response would go beyond diplomacy. The system to be based in Poland lacks "any target other than Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles," it said in a statement, contending the U.S. system "will be broadened and modernized."

"In this case Russia will be forced to react, and not only through diplomatic" channels, it said without elaborating.

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The Russians are deadly serious about this missle defense issue. At least as serious as the Americans are about the Iranian nuclear program.

Finn McCool said:

I suggest that you read earlier posts; as I said earlier under modern conventional battle conditions, it is nearly impossible for both sides to hold up for more than a few days. This is especially true when one side has a commanding advantage in air power, as in Georgia. So the fact that the battle only lasted about two and a half days does not mean the Georgian Army was completely routed and crushed. Operationally crippled, yes. Lost most of their heavy equipment, yes. Defeated, yes. However it is not entirely correct to say that the battle was totally one sided and that the Georgians did not stand and fight with effect around Tshkinvalli and/or Gori.



The Russians are deadly serious about this missle defense issue. At least as serious as the Americans are about the Iranian nuclear program.

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My guess is that they will make it very cold for the Polish this winter. I do not believe they will take direct military action.

Husar,
russian own MoD state 60-70 KIA and 400 wounded in action. Russia is notorious for not counting wounded that die later and also lowering the actual number of casualties.

I do know that Ukrainian sold Metis-M and a few Israeli SPIKE ATGW tore apart russian units going into ossetia. Next, Georgian snipers became active with "remington 700" sniper rifles and M-4 with Trijicon X3 designated marksman in very small 2 man sniper teams causing problems for the russian units while also calling in great grid square fire calls. Many of the sniper teams "humped" out of ossetia and are resting in tbilisi.

Husar, did you serve in the military or have been in a area of conflict. You see, people die especially when the OFPOR has set up a hasty defense using sound small unit tactics. Then small units die when hit by strategic bombers.

Killing is easy Husar.... For many, it really is. especially if you volunteer and are taught to do it. all it takes is one 64grain 5.56 to the head and guess what husar you are dead without even hearing or knowing what hit you.

It seems recognition is inevitable now:

Georgia's breakway region of Abkhazia declared today that it would ask Russia to recognise its independence in a move that threatens to trigger a new crisis in the Caucasus.

The Abkhaz parliament said that it would send a formal request for recognition to President Dmitri Medvedev in Moscow tomorrow. Deputy speaker Vyacheslav Tsugba said: "The people of Abkhazia intend to ask the Russian leadership to recognise Abkhazia."

The Speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, said that legislators were ready to support the request and to extend recognition to South Ossetia too. Sergei Mironov told the Interfax news agency: "The Federation Council is ready to recognise the independent status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia if that is what the people of these republics want and also if there is a corresponding decision by the Russian president."

Mr Mironov's deputy, Svetlana Orlova, announced an emergency session of the Federation Council for Monday to discuss recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.

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Source:

I'm not sure how the West or Georgia could react to this. Georgia can't do much against Russia and I don't think the West is eager for war right now.

As I've said all along, Russia should reserve recognizing these states to leave Georgia's NATO status in limbo. NATO will ambivalent about Georgia's membership as long as the status of these two states remain uncertain. If Russia outright recognizes them or integrates them, then the political status would be certain. Also, Georgia realizes that it does not have the military or political power to regain these states, and that losing them outright would be politically poisonous. So that's a powerful disincentive for them to join NATO, which would trigger losing these states.

utelore said:

Husar,
russian own MoD state 60-70 KIA and 400 wounded in action. Russia is notorious for not counting wounded that die later and also lowering the actual number of casualties.

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I suspect a lot of the dead were from the original peacekeeping detachment. I've yet to come across any pictures of "destroyed Russian armoured battalions". The Georgian death toll is in the hundreds (latest estimates say 400 - 500 dead)

Like I wrote earlier, the initial Russian advance consisted of 2 x battalion sized mech. combat groups (emphasis on TWO!) from the 19th Moto-Rifle Division. According to you, at least half that force was wiped out, yet they still managed to drive the Georgians out of Tshinkvali several hours later....I find it hard to believe that a force which just got practically halved, could push the enemy out without major problems.

By the 3rd day, the Georgian positions on the surrounding heights and villages were attacked. The attack was led by the Chechen "Vostok" battalion, which BTW, didn't suffer any fatalities.

I do know that Ukrainian sold Metis-M and a few Israeli SPIKE ATGW tore apart russian units going into ossetia.

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The only source for such claims is a Russian female reporter's report who "miracously" was all over the battlefield and managed to count the number of destroyed vehicles.

I already wrote that the Georgians put up a fight the first 2 days, but to say that they "tore up" the Russians is an exageration.

Next, Georgian snipers became active with "remington 700" sniper rifles and M-4 with Trijicon X3 designated marksman in very small 2 man sniper teams causing problems for the russian units while also calling in great grid square fire calls. Many of the sniper teams "humped" out of ossetia and are resting in tbilisi.

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The Georgians hardly used the M-4 because they went back to their trusty AK-47s as soon as hostilities started. This has been confirmed bu US trainers in Georgia. A lot of the M-4s have been captured.

Husar, did you serve in the military or have been in a area of conflict.

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Yes.

1991/92 in the former Yugoslavia

You see, people die especially when the OFPOR has set up a hasty defense using sound small unit tactics. Then small units die when hit by strategic bombers.
Killing is easy Husar.... For many, it really is. especially if you volunteer and are taught to do it. all it takes is one 64grain 5.56 to the head and guess what husar you are dead without even hearing or knowing what hit you.

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Spare me your bravado....just because you've playing video games and watching war movies doesn't make you an expert in killing

FugitiveVisions said:

As I've said all along, Russia should reserve recognizing these states to leave Georgia's NATO status in limbo. NATO will ambivalent about Georgia's membership as long as the status of these two states remain uncertain. If Russia outright recognizes them or integrates them, then the political status would be certain. Also, Georgia realizes that it does not have the military or political power to regain these states, and that losing them outright would be politically poisonous. So that's a powerful disincentive for them to join NATO, which would trigger losing these states.

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Honestly, I think it won't matter either way, Georgia will be brought into NATO in the end either way. Perhaps the Russians already realize this and they want to make it look like they're reacting to the conflict as much as possible rather than reacting to NATO membership or Kosovo.

Also recognized or not the issue will be far from resolved. In fact, the seizure of land near the Inguri river by Abkhazia indicates the issue will remain a problem.