The Horn of Africa

Finn McCool said:

This isn't exactly the Horn of Africa but it adds another layer to the miasma of violence that has engulfed the Sahel.



Looks to me like France has gotten tired of supporting a failing and corrupt ally (South Vietnam anyone?) , although it doesn't make sense for them to allow the Chadian government to fall just as the peacekeepers get there. The rebels probably made a last all-out offensive to try to take the capital before the EU troops arrived. Perhaps some French airstrikes will halt the rebel columns yet.

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Do you remember a few decades back when Libya had invaded and tried to occupy Chad? First we get Ghaddafi's eldest son fighting in Iraq, now this. I don't know if its just me, but it seems like Ghaddafi is back to his old game of supporting insurgencies all over the region.

crazyinsane105 said:

Do you remember a few decades back when Libya had invaded and tried to occupy Chad? First we get Ghaddafi's eldest son fighting in Iraq, now this. I don't know if its just me, but it seems like Ghaddafi is back to his old game of supporting insurgencies all over the region.

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I think he figures that he got off the hook with his nuclear program disclosure and subsequent "graduation from rehab." If he is supporting these insurgents in Chad, it would add a whole new wrinkle to the Darfur/Chad/CAR "swathe of destruction" as I like to call it. I haven't seen or heard anything just yet that has indicated Lybian involvment though. More likely that Sudan is responsible; they're trying to turn Chad into a new Somalia to make the EU/UN forces that are heading to the area unteneable.

Things aren't looking good:

Eritrea has ignored a U.N. deadline to grant peacekeepers on its border with Ethiopia access to badly needed fuel, but despite the shortfall, a U.N. official said U.N. troops are reluctant to leave because they fear war could erupt.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon set a Wednesday deadline for Eritrea to allow the U.N. peacekeepers to refuel, saying they faced a fuel crisis. But the U.N. official said on Thursday that Eritrea had ignored the deadline.

"The U.N. cannot afford to leave because it would create the conditions for a resumption of the conflict," a U.N. official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. "Abandoning our positions would sanctify a resumption of the conflict."

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It was not clear how long the peacekeepers could stay put with only meager fuel supplies. If Eritrea continues to deny them fuel, they eventually will have to pull out, using their emergency fuel supplies to evacuate, the official said.

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At the same time things are worsening in Somalia:





I've been thinking that with Eritrea and Ethiopia both making clear preparations for war the only thing stopping it was the U.N. presence and with Ethiopia possibly being tied down even more in Somalia, possibly even having to get involved with the situation over Somaliland, Eritrea might use it as an opening for an attack.

, BBC International Version, Saturday, 16 February 2008, 03:51 GMT:

The United Nations has condemned Eritrea, accusing it of preventing hundreds of peacekeepers from crossing from Eritrea into Ethiopia.

The UN ordered its regional force to withdraw to Ethiopia after the Eritrean government cut off its fuel supplies.

But the UN says only six vehicles have been allowed to leave, some troops have been threatened at gunpoint and now their rations have been stopped. Eritrea denied blocking their departure saying its supplies had simply run out.

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More at the link.

Things are heading south on the Eritrea-Ethiopia frontier. After the UN ordered its Peacekeeping Force out of the TMZ separating Eritrean and Ethiopian forces after Eritrea cut off food and fuel supplies to the UN, the Eritreans are now refusing to let the UN troops out of the TMZ altogether. There are around a quarter of a million troops massed on each side of the TMZ; with something approaching half a million troops preparing for a possible war, and the UN having called it quits and trying to get out before a war may break out, the situation is deteriorating by the day. Ethiopia says that it will allow the UN Force to evacuate the TMZ by passing into Ethiopian territory, a simple, but shrewd diplomatic move.

The Eritrean Government considers the UN mission to have beeen a complete failure in resolving the border dispute with Ethiopia, particularly over Badme, which is recognized as rightfully belonging to Eritrea, but is still occupied by Ethiopia. Other, more minor such districts are likewise illegally occupied either by Eritrea or Ethiopia, though they are formally recognized as rightfully belonging to the other.

It's stuff like this that make me say that the UN needs more teeth to deal with recalcitrants like this, strengthening the UN's military enforcement capability may help things in this area.

Ethiopia blames bus explosion on Eritrea:

Eight people have been killed in an explosion Thursday in northwestern Ethiopia, government officials said, and Ethiopia said rival Eritrea was responsible.

Eritrean Information Minister Ali Abdu told The Associated Press dismissed Ethiopia's accusation as: "total rubbish."

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, MISNA, 20/3/2008, 17.33:

There have been clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean troops at the mutual border according to news confirmed by Ethiopian military sources, who noted that the fighting took place last Monday in the Tigre region of Zalambesa. Unconfirmed reports, in the fighting - which lasted about an hour near the town of Anbeset Geleba - and where at least seven soldiers were killed; two of them Ethiopian.

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More at the link. Apparently other incidents have occurred, and continue to occur with greater frequency as the UN Peacekeeping mission in the TMZ falters due to logistical problems, Eritrea having cut off fuel supplies to the UN forces.

I wish we knew more about this situation. It could be that both sides are preparing for war. But it also could be that neither side really wants war but both are ready for it-sort of a Korean DMZ situation with an African (and thus much more disorderly and dangerous) twist.

It seems to me that Eritrea is content to allow things to remain as they are and bleed the Ethiopians in Somalia, while the Ethiopians are probably itching to strike "at the head of the snake" as they see it.

Eritrea might be getting ready for an attack on Djibouti:

Eritrean soldiers have crossed in Djibouti in order to dig trenches and other defenses, according to Djiboutian officials.

“The violation of the border is flagrant. The two armies are facing each other,” Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh told reporters from various news agencies. “We have asked for international arbitration from the Arab League and the African Union.”

The reason for the latest outbreak remains unclear, but the two countries located on the Horn of Africa have previous been engaged in fighting over the border, which is located in the northern and mostly deserted part of Djibouti. However, the specific area lacks any natural resources, as does the rest of Djibouti, so the country is focused on maintaining its status as an island of calm in an otherwise stormy region.

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Source:

Vlad Plasmius said:

Eritrea might be getting ready for an attack on Djibouti:

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Why would they do that? Seems more likely to me that they are trying to get positions from which they can flank the Ethiopian's front lines along the border.