Just how far has the PLA advanced in the last decade?

Hi all,

I am new to posting on the forum, though I have been lurking around on the boards longer than you might expect.

I have a simple question which I expect the professionalism on this forum (which is more mature and better in quality than most I read!) should be answer.

So we have all been hearing and reading a lot about the PLA's moderization and China's rise in the last decade.

But taking a step back and looking at the big picture, just how far has the PLA advanced relative to its adversaries in the last decade? It's declared primary mission for the last 50 years, of course, has been to protect China's territorial sovereignity while being able to militarily prevail over Taiwan.

Even more thought provoking, has it acquired the capability to deny US intervention over Taiwan long enough for China to coerce the government in Taipei? On first appeareance, it would appear definitely not so, as the US has a large and technologically superior navy and air force as well as superior training and experience. Ship-to-ship, plane-to-plane, there is probably not much of a contest. But I would not underestimate China's investments into assymetric technologies, from its diesel SSKs, to the ASAT weapon, to attacks on America's information networks, to even a ballistic missile modified to attack US carrers at sea.

Of course, I am not suggesting the PLA can defeat the US military head-on in an extended conflict (that would be delusional on my part), I am merely asking if it can possibly deny US intervention in the short time window needed.

So there are my questions. I would much appreciate any replies.

Hi Jiang Jieshi,
you are welcome but since your favorite pastime is ´lurking around unexpectedly´your chosen nickname should be perhaps Tai Li (戴笠). (...just use irony tags...:coffee

As for your very profound question:

During the last decade PLA has made tremendous strides but everything they have achieved has yet to be consolidated and additionally the perception of PLA's military strength is not sufficiently impressive to further Beijing's stated political aims regarding Taiwan. Nonetheless China is certainly no military pushover anymore and correspondingly the US is trying to avoid to a certain degree rising tensions with the PRC about Taiwan.

After all the sino-american relationship is very complex and China's strong trade position (US no.1 provider of goods) plus her significant financial engagement (500 bn $ of US treasury bonds) are without doubt already actively limiting any confrontational approach aimed at ´containing´a rising China by hard power.
But for all that sino-american relations are yet quite volatile and under a new administration led by the Democrat's things could get worse over spats about trade, human rights and currency value. In the end China will have to acquire the necessary balanced strategic power to accomplish her desired aim of ´peaceful rise´ though this appears to take another 5-10 years of intensive efforts.

Sooner or later, given with all the change the PLA is undergoing, it should change its name to the ePLA.

PLA vs GLA, commie vs neocon, CCTV vs Fox, Yao vs Duncan...-_-

Hello there! I want to say what a great question you proposed, while I appreciate all the different types of weapons produced currently, it's the grand strategy that really matters. As to my answer:

IMHO, in absolute terms, China have not made much progress compare to the progress made by the USA. But in relative terms, progress is huge. Unlike other countries, China don't have to the luxury to buy top of the line hardwares, they must develope it themselves. For example compare the next gen fighters of both side, J-10 will be wooped vs the F22 Raptor any day of the week. But only when you had build the J-10 can you possibly build the J-XX, etc etc.

The name of the game currently then, IMHO, is still on of catching up. As long as the RPC is progressing relatively faster than the US, then it's all good, because one day, you can be sure that both country will be on par, and then the sky is the limit.

So with that said, the future seem quite bright indeed for the PRC. In all fields, economic, militariy, and political; China is progressing (and catching up) at a speed unseen before by any major world power in modern history. IMHO then, given the current trend, the future, will undoubtably, belong to the RPC.

Yao vs Duncan when does NBA get involved into the military discussion...haha...on serious note.

Past decade PLA has moved its defensive area of protection further out to sea and land. Its original defence parameter defended China land area, and its coast line still lacked sufficient defence against enemy.

But over this decade its defence parameter has grown and stretched outside its landborders. (Reffering to East) With now sufficient coastal defence and more or less some form of sea defence border. Though its sea defence border is not neccesary far away its never the less stretched out.

Starting of the decade China was somewhere in the range of 30-40 years behind the US in military now its like 10 years behind. So in one decade China caught up of 30 years of military hardware and knowledge. Though its Navy is still grasping the fundamental concepts, its land and aviation seems self sufficient in effective enemy denial. Though the PLAN is still behind the PLAAF and PLA Ground.

I wouldn't say 10 years. There are still fields that China hasn't advance that much in. And while China has advanced very much in combat capabilities, its transportation isn't necessarily on par.

The gap varies from field to field. In some aspects, such as carriers, the Chinese are light years behind the U.S right now. 10 years is a good estimate for fighter technology lag. The Chinese may be almost on par with the U.S in a very limited number of fields, which is probably classified on the Chinese side but not the U.S.

Transportation...if we compare China against 1997 U.S, the U.S still easily trumps in transportation. But given another ten years and the correct emphasis, the Chinese should be for the most part caught up. So its hard to say how far behind the U.S China is in tranportation.

Thanks for all the responses.

I agree with the fact that the PLA has made some significant progress in the recent years, but I am more curious to put it all in perspective.

I am not so interested in "power projection" and ability to sustain expeditionary forces halfway around the world (unlike another nation which shall remain unnamed), but I am more curious about how far the PLA has come in being able to defend its territorial integrity, including Taiwan.

Obviously, the Army with its concept of People's War and massive size alone should be sufficient to be able to defend the mainland (no one would ever be dumb enough to get involved in a land war in Asia, let alone China), no matter how outdated or behind it remains in sophistication. But in terms of air power and naval forces, I believe China still has some way to go.

The PLAN and PLAAF have come a long way in the modernization, and are no longer the outdated forces of past that would have been nothing for a hostile power to contend with. However, considering how quickly China's adversaries are building up also, I am still concerned that this is not enough.

The USAF and USN's airfleets will be almost entirely stealthy in the future, based on the F-22 to F-35. American and Japanese surface combatants, and indeed submarines, remain significantly more advanced than their Chinese counterparts. And in terms of doctrine, we can fairly say that the PLAN remains an amatuer compared to its Western counterparts.

How will the PLA catch up to adversaries who have built up such a lead and who are constantly updating their forces as well? Assymetric capabilities can only go so far; in the end, the two fleets and air forces will have to come to blows.