American Economics Thread

Tam said:

Bitcoin price at near $64,000 today. That is ominous.

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Why is 64000 ominous? broke threw the 60000 barrier?

Bitcoin could go to a million by end of year...

Doesnt change the reality its meant to mask the fact that tshtf

Hyperinflation is here, soon a rtx3090 graphics card will be $5000 usd or higher

Where I live ammo 9mm is already a dollar a round, ten years ago it was like ten cents

A telescope I bought couple years back for $999 is now twice the price

A $45 Thrustmaster joystick from 2017 is now $145 for exact same model

A $600 Predator 3500watt inverter generator from last december now $1299

Every month groceries get more expensive, gas just jumped 9%

Lumber jump like 400% in last few weeks, now Amazon packaging suddenly much smaller than before

This is the end of America as we knew it to be, you cant print 20% of all dollars of entire history of your nation in just one year and expect to get away with it...

DCEP and digital Yuan dont have to replace the dollar, China just has to stop participating in this pyramid scheme, the US runs out of suckers to con, and the whole house of cards come tumbling down

quantumlight said:

Why is 64000 ominous? broke threw the 60000 barrier?

Bitcoin could go to a million by end of year...

Doesnt change the reality its meant to mask the fact that tshtf

Click to expand...

Eroding faith on the US dollar. How much was it in 2017? A high of $5000. Then went up to $20,000, then dropped down again to around $5000.



Hyperinflation may not be hitting the CPI --- a lot to do because we genuinely do not have a Chinese or American economy but a Sino-American economy. The Chinese side is providing the productivity to soak up the excess US dollars from the market and transfer it to China. But there is going to be a problem when the Chinese, who are holding trillions of excess US dollars, might find the US dollar values they are holding to erode. That's toxic capital. The question is how long investors will hold on to US dollars with the fear its value may erode. They will scramble to put it on other assets instead through loans by buying real estate, stocks, bit coin, futures, metals and so on. When you take out more loans, that's money creation from the banks, as you pour more money to the market.

Hyperinflation may instead be hitting stocks --- see Zimbabwe's stock market go ballistic lately --- as well as housing prices. We may also see it in health insurance thanks to covid, and in education with the market for foreign (chinese) students drastically dropping. Log jams in the containers are raising freight prices, which is putting pressure on consumer prices.

It is just stagflation again like a lot of people expected.
I don't know why the US thought it wouldn't happen.
The cure they used last time, raising interest rates, won't happen because of the huge pile of debt the US has.
They'll probably default eventually.

They vastly increased the money supply at a time the US economy is stalled because of the lockdowns.
This was really dumb.

Tam said:

Bitcoin price at near $64,000 today. That is ominous.

Click to expand...

This new all time high is different, financial institutions are buying bitcoins, companies are putting bitcoins on their balance sheet as a inflation hedge against the FED printing the dollar to zero.

The game is still early and the small guy will find it harder and harder to get a complete bitcoin as in 100 million satoshis. Bitcoin miners are also hodlin their newly minted coins knowing the price will go up in dollar terms. So demand is getting higher and supply is slowing down. There are models predicting a $100k~288k bitcoin price at this year end.

The reward of owning bitcoin as a inflation hedge is bigger then the risk that bitcoin is going back to 25k, especially now that the US is printing because it has printed in the past, its a doom loop not many countries get out of.

BlackWindMnt said:

This new all time high is different, financial institutions are buying bitcoins, companies are putting bitcoins on their balance sheet as a inflation hedge against the FED printing the dollar to zero.

The game is still early and the small guy will find it harder and harder to get a complete bitcoin as in 100 million satoshis. Bitcoin miners are also hodlin their newly minted coins knowing the price will go up in dollar terms. So demand is getting higher and supply is slowing down. There are models predicting a $100k~288k bitcoin price at this year end.

The reward of owning bitcoin as a inflation hedge is bigger then the risk that bitcoin is going back to 25k, especially now that the US is printing because it has printed in the past, its a doom loop not many countries get out of.

Click to expand...

Bitcoin is a scam.... what people should be doing is spending the worthless dollar on hard assets... once WWIII starts and we get permament blackouts or the Internet craps out, bitcoin will go straight to zero.... unlike the digital Yuan, without Internet bitcoin dies... and it cannot start up again due to split brain fragmentation issue

Bill Gates is buying farmland not bitcoin

quantumlight said:

Bitcoin is a scam.... what people should be doing is spending the worthless dollar on hard assets... once WWIII starts and we get permament blackouts or the Internet craps out, bitcoin will go straight to zero.... unlike the digital Yuan, without Internet bitcoin dies... and it cannot start up again due to split brain fragmentation issue

Bill Gates is buying farmland not bitcoin

Click to expand...

In a war where you have intercontinental missiles that can destroy your assets or poison your farmland. What use do I have here in the West for the digital Yuan when I need Euros to pay my bills and taxes. When WW3 starts I have other problems given that I and my little brother are still in the fighting age cohort.

I'm just a worker not some kind of landlord that can dodge a draft etc. The next two decades will one hell of a ride for millennial generation geopolitically seen.

Going back to a world that will be without internet is not something I see happening, unless ww3 becomes nuclear even then I don't see it happening. Especially with decreasing prices to put tech assets in space via private space corpos.
You already have crypto currency space assets streaming the state of blockchains without the need of internet.

Tam said:

Hyperinflation may not be hitting the CPI --- a lot to do because we genuinely do not have a Chinese or American economy but a Sino-American economy. The Chinese side is providing the productivity to soak up the excess US dollars from the market and transfer it to China. But there is going to be a problem when the Chinese, who are holding trillions of excess US dollars, might find the US dollar values they are holding to erode. That's toxic capital. The question is how long investors will hold on to US dollars with the fear its value may erode. They will scramble to put it on other assets instead through loans by buying real estate, stocks, bit coin, futures, metals and so on. When you take out more loans, that's money creation from the banks, as you pour more money to the market.

Hyperinflation may instead be hitting stocks --- see Zimbabwe's stock market go ballistic lately --- as well as housing prices. We may also see it in health insurance thanks to covid, and in education with the market for foreign (chinese) students drastically dropping. Log jams in the containers are raising freight prices, which is putting pressure on consumer prices.

Click to expand...

I do see China is reducing its dollar holdings.
But the problem is that there aren't enough alternative liquid assets.

---

If you're solely looking a wealth preservation, my view is that property is the best hedge against high inflation.

There's a limited supply of land.

Developing cities can expect to see an increasing population along with high wage growth.
In developed cities, we can expect wages to be at least stable in real terms in the long-run.

And it is wage levels which determines property rents and prices.

Property also has the advantage in that you can attach a reasonable amount of debt to a property.
I don't see any other potential assets with these advantages for small investors.

---
On the other hand, financial instruments like stocks, bitcoin, futures, etc are better for speculation.

But you have to pay a lot more attention to these speculative assets.

BlackWindMnt said:

In a war where you have intercontinental missiles that can destroy your assets or poison your farmland. What use do I have here in the West for the digital Yuan when I need Euros to pay my bills and taxes. When WW3 starts I have other problems given that I and my little brother are still in the fighting age cohort.

I'm just a worker not some kind of landlord that can dodge a draft etc. The next two decades will one hell of a ride for millennial generation geopolitically seen.

Going back to a world that will be without internet is not something I see happening, unless ww3 becomes nuclear even then I don't see it happening. Especially with decreasing prices to put tech assets in space via private space corpos.
You already have crypto currency space assets streaming the state of blockchains without the need of internet.

Click to expand...

Look at the distribution of the Bitcoin mining pool.

If there is a US-China war, what are the odds of repeated 51% attacks coordinated by Chinese miners?

Bitcoin becomes worthless.

The same applies to every other crypto with open access to new participants.


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/dhko9d

AndrewS said:

Look at the distribution of the Bitcoin mining pool.

If there is a US-China war, what are the odds of repeated 51% attacks coordinated by Chinese miners?

Bitcoin becomes worthless.

The same applies to every other crypto with open access to new participants.


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/dhko9d

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But in a real war scenario, US gets its Asian vassals to cut the submarine cables and basically isolate China from the rest of the global internet...

(or less drastically they can simply drop all routes and IP coming from China from their routers and cut off all BGP routes connecting to China)

This means those nodes drop off and US can take back control of bitcoin lickidy split

Instead of scamcoin, the average joe should be converting dollars to gold, silver, food MRE, water storage containers, power generators, solar panels, ham radio, emergency go kits, survival book, survival gear, guns ammo, etc etc etc

AndrewS said:

Look at the distribution of the Bitcoin mining pool.

If there is a US-China war, what are the odds of repeated 51% attacks coordinated by Chinese miners?

Bitcoin becomes worthless.

The same applies to every other crypto with open access to new participants.


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/dhko9d

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But if bitcoin becomes worthless, all the investment into mining pools etc becomes worthless.
They would also piss off their partners like Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

I don't expect Chinese miners to go full joker on a 1 trillion plus asset