Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
not sure why you appear to insist on Jan 24, anyway I tabulate

a/(exp(-k*(DAY - xc))*(d - 1) + 1)^(1/(d - 1))

(coefficient values are in Today at 1:30 PM graph)

from DAY #5 = Jan 24

day#5 440 confirmed cases, back-calculated: 1598
day#6 571 confirmed cases, back-calculated: 2008
day#7 830 confirmed cases, back-calculated: 2523
day#8 1287 confirmed cases, back-calculated: 3168
day#9 2744 confirmed cases, back-calculated: 3974
day#10 4515 confirmed cases, back-calculated: 4976
day#11 6061 confirmed cases, fitted: 6218
day#12 7771 confirmed cases, fitted: 7745
day#13 9692 confirmed cases, fitted: 9604
day#14 11943 confirmed cases, fitted: 11838
day#15 14562 confirmed cases, fitted: 14469
day#16 17383 confirmed cases, fitted: 17492
day#17 20624 confirmed cases, fitted: 20853
day#18 24539 confirmed cases, fitted: 24440
day#19 28262 confirmed cases, fitted: 28089
day#20 31453 confirmed cases, fitted: 31605
day#21 34876 confirmed cases, fitted: 34810
day#22 37552 confirmed cases, fitted: 37574
23th day = Feb10: 39842 extrapolated from the fit
24th day = Feb11: 41625 extrapolated from the fit
25th day = Feb12: 42978 extrapolated from the fit
26th day = Feb13: 43977 extrapolated from the fit
27th day = Feb14: 44699 extrapolated from the fit
28th day = Feb15: 45214 extrapolated from the fit
29th day = Feb16: 45577 extrapolated from the fit
30th day = Feb17: 45830 extrapolated from the fit
31th day = Feb18: 46006 extrapolated from the fit

the top asymptote is 46399 (standard error of 1690) EDIT if the virus begins to spread from new sources, this model will become useless as a matter of course

<3 jura, atleast u showing an equation

@Brumby claims to have a model and basically says he too good to share with us
 

Quickie

Colonel
I suspected very mild and mild cases were massively under-reported in Wuhan in the earlier weeks. Exaggerated mortality rate caused by under-reported cases in the early stage of an epidemic is a common occurrence. Wuhan, as a newly designated 1st-tier city, should have relatively good healthcare institutions. It is being overwhelmed currently, but the situation will improve as time goes by.


February update, daily (cumulative):

2/1: confirmed 2,590 (14,380), suspected 4,562 (19,544*), severe case 315 (2,110), death 45 (304), cured 85 (328), under observation: 137,594 nation-wide
2/2: confirmed 2,829 (17,205), suspected 5,173 (21,558*), severe case 186 (2,296), death 57 (361), cured 147 (475), under observation: 152,700 nation-wide
2/3: confirmed 3,235 (20,438), suspected 5,072 (23,214*), severe case 492 (2,788), death 64 (425), cured 157 (634), under observation: 171,329 nation-wide
2/4: confirmed 3,887 (24,324), suspected 3,971 (23,260*), severe case 431 (3,219), death 65 (490), cured 262 (892), under observation: 185,555 nation-wide
2/5: confirmed 3,694 (28,018), suspected 5,328 (24,702*), severe case 640 (3,859), death 73 (563), cured 261 (1,153), under observation: 186,354 nation-wide
2/6: confirmed 3,143 (31,161), suspected 4,833 (26,359*), severe case 962 (4,821), death 73 (636), cured 387 (1,540), under observation: 186,045 nation-wide
2/7: confirmed 3,399 (34,546), suspected 4,214 (27,657*), severe case 1,280 (6,101), death 86 (722), cured 510 (2,050), under observation: 189,660 nation-wide
2/8: confirmed 2,656 (37,198), suspected 3,916 (28,942*), severe case 87 (6,188), death 89 (811), cured 600 (2,649), under observation: 188,183 nation-wide

*cumulative suspected = cumulative suspected on the previous day + daily suspected – those who tested positive or negative on the same day (my personal unofficial interpretation)

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Comment: both confirmed case and severe case, especially severe case, dropped substantially on 2/8

The "2/8 severe case" suddenly dropped to 87 from "2/7 severe case" 1280?
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Here are some counter examples.

The first North American case of 2019-nCoV was from a man who boarded a flight from China to the US around Jan 15 (not exact date). Hundreds of fellow passengers in an enclosed space for over 10 hours. Today is February 8th, more than 3 weeks later. No explosion of cases.

Similarly, first case in Canada, a man from a Jan 21 flight. 18 days later, only his wife is infected.

In fact, almost every North American case is someone who recently returned from China or a family member of someone who did.

If the 2019-nCoV is really so contagious, why did we not see mass infections from all those flights?

I made few calculation based on the next links :
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It is about the air flow/ pressure/ humidity in an aircraft.

By this, on a commercial airplane the pressure is 0.8 bar, the humidity is around 20% ,and in every 3 minutes the full volume of air is exchanged to fresh one ,and in every 1.5 minute the whole volume filtered through .

Due to the low humidity the survival chance of any organism/virus in air or on any surface is low, because the water droplet evaporate very quickly.


So, there is very low chance to catch any viral/bacterial infection an an airplane.

Actually, I think even a medical operation theatre is more supportive for air infections and has less filtering capability than a commercial aircraft during flight.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Chinese doctors are using Cuban antivirals against coronavirus.

The Recombinant Interferon Alpha 2B (IFNrec), an antiviral produced by the Cuban biotech industry, is being used by Chinese doctors to treat patients infected by the 2019-nCoV coronavirus, which has affected more than 28,000 people and has killed 564 patients worldwide.


Since Jan. 25, the ChangHeber Company located in Changchun city has been producing the famous Cuban antiviral, which is one of 30 medicines chosen by the National Health Commission for its potential to cure respiratory diseases.

Currently, IFNrec is applied against HIV-related infections, recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, genital warts, and hepatitis types B and C. It is also effective in therapies against different types of cancer.
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
not sure why you appear to insist on Jan 24, anyway I tabulate

As you say yourself, if there is a new source, the model becomes useless.

That also applies to a significant change in any of the variables:

eg. Mass quarantine beginning Jan 24.
 
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