Brother can you share your model and also explain how to use R0 to predict how many people will be infected by certain time? Cuz I've read stuff and still don't get how to interpret it.
And the article said if the model holds then its 100 million by Valetines day.
Frankly now the model is built is not the important part but what can be meaningfully interpreted from it. IMO there are at least two important takeaways.
I have added some notes to the graph and I will walk through what in my view are important components to it.
It should be noted that the graph is in log scale. If it was in real terms the graph would look a lot more parabolic in presentation.
The first takeaway is that the infection rate is still expanding at an exponential level and no sign that the infection rate is slowing down. Therefore to answer the question - will we get to 100,000 within a week? No one knows but the model is projecting it will and so far the model is tracking in line with the reported infection numbers.
The second takeaway is whatever measures that are currently being taken is not slowing down the infection rate because the actual trajectory of the graph is not showing any slowing down. At some point I expect to see numbers indicating a slow down in infection rate via a deviation in actual data vs projected data as illustrated in the graph. When the incoming data starts to support such a state of slowing down then we will know but how soon can we see that is an unknown.
Finally, a 45 degree expansion angle is normally quite sustainable as a natural state but given it is in log scale, some reservation of such an interpretation would apply. In other words, my concern is it might have some way to go before the graph starts to slow down. .
