Future PLAN orbat discussion

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
90% capacity of human resources is needed for planning, only 10% for building. They are planning new submarines, new propulsion systems, new carriers and so on. They are very busy. There is no waste of resources for sure.

But building submarines requires different skill sets, compared with building surface ships. Besides no new carriers are spotted yet.
It looks like there is no new type 054, type 071 and type 075, and no new type 052 and type 055 beyond the current batch.
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
But building submarines requires different skill sets, compared with building surface ships. Besides no new carriers are spotted yet.
It looks like there is no new type 054, type 071 and type 075, and no new type 052 and type 055 beyond the current batch.

Yea, I am noticing this too. Very strange.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
But building submarines requires different skill sets, compared with building surface ships. Besides no new carriers are spotted yet.
It looks like there is no new type 054, type 071 and type 075, and no new type 052 and type 055 beyond the current batch.

There are too many shelters where ship module construction can happen without being spotted and if spotted it won't be in any identifiable form.

What's the rush, there are far too many ships being built now. Some slowdown is necessary for the PLAN to catch up. Providing crews for each new ship is not easy. Type 054A production contract has ended, so does Type 071. It also appears the contract for the Type 056A has also ended. No rumor or news about the 052D and 055 so presumably these are still on. Export Type 054A/P production has already been spotted, as well as Thailand's S26T submarine, and we presume Thailand's Type 071E will be built after the second Type 075. Ending of Type 056A might be leading to Type 054B production.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
But building submarines requires different skill sets, compared with building surface ships. Besides no new carriers are spotted yet.
It looks like there is no new type 054, type 071 and type 075, and no new type 052 and type 055 beyond the current batch.

054A production for the PLAN has obviously finished and they're only building a few hulls for Pakistan right now.
We are awaiting for 054B or 057 to emerge in the next few years.

052D production is likely going to end at around 25-26 ships. There may or may not be a successor 052E class, but again it will likely take a few years to emerge as well.

055 production is expected to be anywhere from 8-12 ships, so chances are we will see JN and DL to continue to build them for another year or two. Then chances are they will wait a few years before moving to the rumoured 055A.


071s and 075s are produced in the same shipyard in the same drydock -- and right now the 2nd 075 is being produced in said drydock, chances are with another 075 to follow thereafter. The fact that 071 production has "stopped" is only half true because it's more accurate to say that 075s are being produced in their place at the moment.



The current pace of Chinese naval surface ship construction is quite reasonable and within the expectations and rumours of recent years.

All the main surface combatant types (frigate, medium destroyer and large destroyer) are either finishing production, or approaching the end of its production run, but all of them have future variants waiting in the wings that will likely begin production sometime in early to mid 2020s. There's nothing particularly concerning or abnormal about that.
 

Bhurki

Junior Member
Registered Member
All the main surface combatant types (frigate, medium destroyer and large destroyer) are either finishing production, or approaching the end of its production run, but all of them have future variants waiting in the wings that will likely begin production sometime in early to mid 2020s. There's nothing particularly concerning or abnormal about that.
A construction holiday of a few years does seem a bit abnormal after they've just launched 10 major combatants in a year.

Wouldn't it have been a better decision to maintain a slower rate of production on the lines which are ending their run now, in order to ensure proper supply of trained personnel for their follow up construction?
A sudden hiccup of 2 or more years would certainly displace capacity and resources quite vigorously.
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
A construction holiday of a few years does seem a bit abnormal after they've just launched 10 major combatants in a year.

Wouldn't it have been a better decision to maintain a slower rate of production on the lines which are ending their run now, in order to ensure proper supply of trained personnel for their follow up construction?
A sudden hiccup of 2 or more years would certainly displace capacity and resources quite vigorously.

Agreed. I feel like we are missing something, either technical difficulties, or severely lacking in trained personnel, or a big leap in capability is expected so they'll be producing entirely new platforms in a few years instead of variants/upgrades.

Or.. maybe the CCP really doesn't like to move forward too quickly, or take any risks, so they'll slowly absorb all knowledge before pursuing any more large ships. Idk which is most likely.
 

lcloo

Captain
Jumping to conclusion just because of one photo showing only one type 075 in dry dock is rather hasty. This reminds me of the few negative postings (technical problem, lack of sailors etc) on CV17 a few weeks before it sailed to Hainan island.
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
Jumping to conclusion just because of one photo showing only one type 075 in dry dock is rather hasty. This reminds me of the few negative postings weeks before on CV17 before it sailed to Hainan island.

Not that just but the expectations regarding all large surface ships.

(There also haven't been significant development on new subsurface platforms but that's another story)
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
A construction holiday of a few years does seem a bit abnormal after they've just launched 10 major combatants in a year.

Wouldn't it have been a better decision to maintain a slower rate of production on the lines which are ending their run now, in order to ensure proper supply of trained personnel for their follow up construction?

A sudden hiccup of 2 or more years would certainly displace capacity and resources quite vigorously.


Agreed. I feel like we are missing something, either technical difficulties, or severely lacking in trained personnel, or a big leap in capability is expected so they'll be producing entirely new platforms in a few years instead of variants/upgrades.

Or.. maybe the CCP really doesn't like to move forward too quickly, or take any risks, so they'll slowly absorb all knowledge before pursuing any more large ships. Idk which is most likely.


I think both of you have it the wrong way around.

IMO it is launching 10 major combatants in a year is what is abnormal, and is a result of happy coincidence of 052D production rate reaching its peak and ongoing 055 production.



Whether it would have been a better idea to maintain a slower and continuous rate or production before moving onto the next generation of surface combatant is debatable.
It could depend on when the industry would have been able to deliver more advanced combatants (with associated subsystems), any need for shipyards to upgrade their own production facilities, as well as whether the Navy had itself mandated a certain fleet level to be reached at a certain period of time before moving onto a more advanced type of combatant later.


I also have not seen an abundance of proof that the Navy is in lack of trained personnel going into the future either; they have a sufficient fleet of modern small, medium and larger combatants such that they can be switched over from smaller and/or older ships to newer more modern combatants. The time taken between launch and commissioning for 052Ds and 055s we've seen is about what would be expected when extrapolated from the time taken for launch/commissioning for the 054A and 056/A classes (when considering their size and complexity).

I think it's worth adding as well, that most navies do not constantly have ongoing surface combatant production; if anything it is normal for shipbuilding pauses of years or even decades between successive generations of ships in the same role.
China of course, is not most navies, and into the immediate future may only experience a surface combatant production pause of a few years before moving onto a new generation. This is partly because of the pace of advancement of domestic technology, and partly because the Chinese Navy overall will likely still expand going into the future and has yet to reach whatever "critical mass/aim" the top brass have.

BUT, that doesn't mean we may still not see a slight pause in production. Remember after all, that the Chinese Navy didn't launch any new destroyers between the second 051C (early 2007) and the third 052C (October 2010) for a period of about three and a half years, so it's not like pauses in production are new.
 

Bhurki

Junior Member
Registered Member
IMO it is launching 10 major combatants in a year is what is abnormal, and is a result of happy coincidence of 052D production rate reaching its peak and ongoing 055 production.
I do understand that last year was a high density phase of the staggered production run and average rate has always been 4-5/annum.
However, what irks more is the absence of any news/rumours about follow-on classes among the impending dead ends of current class runs.
 
Top