Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

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tidalwave

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This is the country that went from its first atomic bomb to its first hydrogen bomb in 3 years (which took the US 11) - while it was still a backward peasant society with more than 50% illiteracy. I simply refuse to believe that given the enormous depth of engineering talent and experience in China today, the vast industrial supply chain, and a willingness to treat patents as recipe books, it would take a decade to make an EUV machine. That's bullshit, plain and simple.
So? Russia , Taiwan, Korea, majority of the Western countries don't have this technologies.
I into this Semiconductor field many years, what's yours?
You can call it BS if it makes you feel better.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
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So? Russia , Taiwan, Korea, majority of the Western countries don't have this technologies.
I don't care whether or not they have these technologies. They either do not have the capability or the incentive to develop them - China has both. Taiwan, Korea, and a majority of Western countries don't have nuclear weapons either, yet China does.

I into this Semiconductor field many years, what's yours?
For all your years of experience, the only response you've given when you've been pressed for specifics is "I dunno lol". Well, I do know - I know the history. I know that each time China's been subjected to a technological embargo - from nuclear weapons by the Soviet Union to semiconductors today - it's risen to the occasion and broken the embargo with lightning speed.

You can call it BS if it makes you feel better.
I don't need your permission or condescension to call it BS. It is BS and I will call it BS. Even if you happen to be correct, it will be by pure luck - you've given no one any reason to think you understand in detail what China needs to build an EUV machine from what it has now, so why should anyone take your word for it?
 

tidalwave

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I don't care whether or not they have these technologies. They either do not have the capability or the incentive to develop them - China has both. Taiwan, Korea, and a majority of Western countries don't have nuclear weapons either, yet China does.


For all your years of experience, the only response you've given when you've been pressed for specifics is "I dunno lol". Well, I do know - I know the history. I know that each time China's been subjected to a technological embargo - from nuclear weapons by the Soviet Union to semiconductors today - it's risen to the occasion and broken the embargo with lightning speed.


I don't need your permission or condescension to call it BS. It is BS and I will call it BS. Even if you happen to be correct, it will be by pure luck - you've given no one any reason to think you understand in detail what China needs to build an EUV machine from what it has now, so why should anyone take your word for it?
Since you put that way, so I just add a bit, NK also had nuke with starving stomachs, for whatever Worths.
 

AndrewS

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Of course if Huawei still get supply then no need to upset the balance.
But US government most likely get TSMC and Samsung stop from supplying Huawei this year 2020.
Not a simple modifications from current supply chain. To make those components suppliers need whole set of different tools.

In my opinion, it would take 10 years minimum. No way no how in 2 years

Huawei being banned from the latest EUV technology is not the end of Huawei.
There are still many growth areas where use of older nodes works out cheaper than designing for the latest EUV node.

There should also be other Chinese companies which still can use the latest EUV technology from Samsung or TSMC.
 

Pkp88

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Can someone kill this thread? Half the conversations have nothing to do with lithography...
 

AndrewS

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It's more than half.
Even if given you half, half is enough damage to slow them big time.

That's my opinion and you can have yours

ASML has already developed the EUV machine and underlying technologies.
SMIC ordered the B Model.
But now, ASML has a C model.
My understanding is that this improves modularity and maintenance, rather than the underlying technology.

So how does China embargoing EUV technologies really slow ASML?
With China cutting itself out of the global supply chain, and industries leaving China, ASML would still be able to address at least 75% of the global market.

So a Chinese embargo of EUV technology may result in a marginal slowdown in ASML developing what comes next after EUV, but that is another 10+ years away. But at the cost of China losing influence, expertise, money etc

It doesn't change the Chinese response, which is fundamental research in new technologies which will replace current EUV tech in 5+ years.
Nor should China stop seeking to match current EUV systems.

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It also raises the point whether sub-3nm semiconductors are economically viable or desirable from a Huawei perspective.

I've seen an estimate that the chip design cost at 5nm (2020) is typically $543M.
And that the design cost at 3nm (2024) is $500M to $1500M.
Presumably the design cost at 2nm (2028?) would be $1000M+

Is designing and manufacturing a sub-3nm chip for consumer purposes still economically viable?

With the consumer smartphone processor volumes that we see from Samsung/Apple/Huawei, it looks like the cost-benefit threshold is between 3nm-5nm. Huawei has already been allocated 5nm/7nm capacity by TSMC and 6nm capacity by Samsung.

And SMIC should be able to get down to 7nm in the next few years, which Huawei should still have access to.

But the vast majority of Huawei products (and sales) are mostly in consumer/industrial sectors where the optimum cost-benefit requires older process technology.
 
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