Chinese Economics Thread

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
The Trump presidency actually has put forth a new paradigm for China relations. His Anti-China rhetoric has caused the american populace to shift their attention to a new boogeyman - "CHINA".
Even if a democrat comes into power, he/she will be forced to continue with the new paradigm that Trump has set forth. In short...China's visions of a frenemy relationship with America has ended. 2018 marks the beginning of the adversarial relationship with US.
The democrat will however seek to continue with the same policies as of Trump AND will try to strengthen/motivate its hesitant Allies to create a United Front against China.
Just imagine a Democrat leader chiding countries of Europe and East Asia to adopt policies inimical to China in return for ignoring to review their Defense spending commitments !

TRUMP 2020 !
 

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Trump presidency actually has put forth a new paradigm for China relations. His Anti-China rhetoric has caused the american populace to shift their attention to a new boogeyman - "CHINA".
Even if a democrat comes into power, he/she will be forced to continue with the new paradigm that Trump has set forth. In short...China's visions of a frenemy relationship with America has ended. 2018 marks the beginning of the adversarial relationship with US.
The democrat will however seek to continue with the same policies as of Trump AND will try to strengthen/motivate its hesitant Allies to create a United Front against China.
Just imagine a Democrat leader chiding countries of Europe and East Asia to adopt policies inimical to China in return for ignoring to review their Defense spending commitments !

TRUMP 2020 !
The anti-China policy actually began with the Obama presidency , hence the pivotal to Asia, politically and military . You are right, Trump is a better option for China.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
The Trump presidency actually has put forth a new paradigm for China relations. His Anti-China rhetoric has caused the american populace to shift their attention to a new boogeyman - "CHINA".
Even if a democrat comes into power, he/she will be forced to continue with the new paradigm that Trump has set forth. In short...China's visions of a frenemy relationship with America has ended. 2018 marks the beginning of the adversarial relationship with US.
The democrat will however seek to continue with the same policies as of Trump AND will try to strengthen/motivate its hesitant Allies to create a United Front against China.
Just imagine a Democrat leader chiding countries of Europe and East Asia to adopt policies inimical to China in return for ignoring to review their Defense spending commitments !

TRUMP 2020 !

Problem is the US doesn't have that kind of power like it use to. The US has created an international economic system where its allies are export dependent. They just didn't see China being a consumer power to challenge the US. All these export dependent countries need to sell their products. I'm sure they want the US to be stronger than China but not when it comes at the expense of their own economic well-being. So unless the US is going make up the difference from losing all that money they make from China, they're not going to be too eager to join in especially with Trump in office. I read the EU was sending an envoy to the US to reset trade talks meaning they were using the China card against the US and now that the two have supposedly made an agreement, the EU has to smooth relations with the US. Trump wanted South Korea to pay $5 billion from the $1 billion it was already paying for US troops stationed there. The US was going to demand even more money from Japan. South Korea protested and the US saw South Korea moving towards China and the US dropped its demand.

Even if the Western alliance did all join together, that's not going to stop China. If they actively worked to undermine China, China wouldn't just do nothing. What would China have to lose since they would have to go as far to end all relations with China. China doesn't have to follow treaties. China doesn't have to respect their intellectual property and they can copy everything they produce and sell it to the world and that would undermine their economies. The only way they can stop China would be through committing war crimes. Yeah go ahead and nuke China and all that fallout will kill US allies in Asia slowly. Again will allies especially in Asia accept that kind of sacrifice in blindly following the US?
 
Last edited:

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
From my limited understanding of the "phrase 1" deal is:

China: promised to buy more agricultural goods.

USA: No new tariffic, and rolled back of some tariffics already imposed.

Unless there's more that I've missed (feel free to correct me).

So, basically it is a "let's both take a few steps back!" Everyone is happy. But I suspect China is happier, because the threatened terrific never materialised, as well as rolled back in tariffics already applied. The only cost is to buy more agricultural products WHICH they need anyway! And even if they don't need it because they have alternate source like south American countries. Well, China can simply stop buying from these countries to satisfy USA. Again back to where we were before all these nastiness kicked off by Trump!

So I just don't buy this as another "unequal treaty" theory proposed by our friend here.
 
Tuesday at 5:25 PM
relatively short while ago, Dec 3, 2019
and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

·
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I will be signing our very large and comprehensive Phase One Trade Deal with China on January 15. The ceremony will take place at the White House. High level representatives of China will be present. At a later date I will be going to Beijing where talks will begin on Phase Two!
now though
China trade delegation to travel to Washington on January 13 to sign phase one deal
  • China delegation reschedules US trip after US President Donald Trump unilaterally announced January 15 date for ‘high representatives’ from Beijing to sign
  • Trump’s eagerness to claim big ‘win’ from phase one deal contrasts with Beijing’s more measured approach

so follow the link
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
if interested
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
From my limited understanding of the "phrase 1" deal is:

China: promised to buy more agricultural goods.

USA: No new tariffic, and rolled back of some tariffics already imposed.

Unless there's more that I've missed (feel free to correct me).

So, basically it is a "let's both take a few steps back!" Everyone is happy. But I suspect China is happier, because the threatened terrific never materialised, as well as rolled back in tariffics already applied. The only cost is to buy more agricultural products WHICH they need anyway! And even if they don't need it because they have alternate source like south American countries. Well, China can simply stop buying from these countries to satisfy USA. Again back to where we were before all these nastiness kicked off by Trump!

So I just don't buy this as another "unequal treaty" theory proposed by our friend here.

The price on agriculture goods has also tanked because of the trade war, so they'll be getting bargain amounts for whatever they choose to pay.
 

SamuraiBlue

Captain
Honestly speaking I believe this will a blessing in disguise in the long run for PRC.

China’s War on Shadow Banking Can’t Last Forever
Beijing has been willing to stomach defaults in the private sector. Now even state-linked firms are looking vulnerable

Cause and effect. Action, reaction. As China cracks down on shadow finance, private companies and state giants alike are learning that the karmic wheel of money can come to a screeching halt.
In April 2018, China unveiled far-reaching rules for its financial industry as part of an effort to curb risk. Banks were asked to spin off their wealth-management arms, which had helped funnel credit to an overburdened private sector, and stick to traditional, boring (read: low-yielding) loan books. They were given three years to adopt the new rules, ending in December 2020.
This was a declaration of war on shadow financing. The industry shrank by 1.6 trillion yuan ($229.1 billion) in 2019, after contracting by 2.9 trillion yuan a year earlier.

In the Shadows

China has reined in non-standard credit since releasing new asset-management rules in April 2018
The policy change has already inflicted some damage. Onshore bond defaults hit a record high for two straight years. In 2019, most of them came from
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
struggling to refinance, while state-owned enterprises emerged largely unscathed.

As we enter 2020, however, China’s draconian reforms could start to backfire on the state, too.

For starters, a shadow-banking crackdown has severely restricted Beijing’s fiscal prowess. To boost infrastructure spending, officials have been allowing local governments to issue special-purpose municipal bonds at a record pace, even
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Yet infrastructure spending remains anemic, growing even slower than the overall economy. .... to read further
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Basically it was this easy money that Chinese corporation and local governments alike taking it like heroin that led to the present chain of defaults.
Now by weening corporations for this drug will lead to a healthier more stable economy.

 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Honestly speaking I believe this will a blessing in disguise in the long run for PRC.



Basically it was this easy money that Chinese corporation and local governments alike taking it like heroin that led to the present chain of defaults.
Now by weening corporations for this drug will lead to a healthier more stable economy.


I don't disagree with that.
 
Yesterday at 6:34 PM
Tuesday at 5:25 PM
now though
China trade delegation to travel to Washington on January 13 to sign phase one deal
  • China delegation reschedules US trip after US President Donald Trump unilaterally announced January 15 date for ‘high representatives’ from Beijing to sign
  • Trump’s eagerness to claim big ‘win’ from phase one deal contrasts with Beijing’s more measured approach

so follow the link
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
if interested
and here's kind of cautionary Glob. Times story of China, US shouldn’t rush phase one deal
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Since Chinese and US officials agreed on the text of a phase one trade agreement, there has been much speculation about when the widely hailed deal could be signed. US President Donald Trump has said that the signing could come on January 15. The South China Morning Post reported on Sunday that a Chinese delegation will travel to Washington on January 13 to sign the deal, after it misreported that a trip would taken place on Saturday.

Given the damage the long-running trade war has inflicted on the world economy, it is completely understandable that many around the world - from officials to investors - hope Beijing and Washington could sign the phase one agreement as soon as possible. It is also apparent that many in China, including officials, also want to see a deal signed sooner rather than later.

However, as trade negotiators continue to finalize the agreement, a speedy signing is not of the essence, but the actual content of the deal and its implementation are.

Given the potential significance of the phase one deal for ending the costly trade tussle and even for the future of the world's most consequential bilateral relationship, it is imperative for both sides to get the deal done right, rather than in a rush.

From discrepancies in official statements on both sides, it is apparent that there are still some final details to be worked out. For example, US officials have unilaterally disclosed information, such as the amount of China's purchases of US products, and the date and location for the signing ceremony.

Chinese officials have not publicly confirmed any of this information.

Though the phase one deal is in the final stage, it is also important to know that this is a delicate phase, particularly given the increasingly toxic political environment in Washington over relations with China. At this stage, there are still many things that could go wrong. After all, the US backtracked in the trade talks before.

That is not to say that the phase one deal is in jeopardy, but it should serve as a reminder that both sides need to treat the process seriously and keep a single-minded focus on putting the final touches on the agreement and making sure that the deal will be implemented well.

Rushing through the process to make short-term political points for a partisan audience would be not only short-sighted - it would also be dangerous to the future of the trade negotiations to address the remaining issues in the dispute, as well as the broad bilateral relationship.

The phase one agreement might be limited in scope, but if properly executed, it could be a great start for both sides to continue de-escalating tensions and even reengage in meaningful discussion to reset the relationship between the two vastly different economies.

Conversely, failure of the phase one deal could plunge the most consequential relationship into another conflict and the world economy into further disarray. It is hoped that both sides will work to avoid that.
 
Top