052C/052D Class Destroyers

obj 705A said:

there really are no economic or industrial limitaions to how many DDGs China wants, the only deciding factor is the will of the CCP (ie: if they want more DDGs they will build more DDGs, if they want less they will build less) if anything China suffering from an economic trouble causing it to significantly reduce the DDG production is nothing more than a fantasy & wishfull thinking from China haters , they have a similar mentality to the likes of Gordon Chang & David Axe, it's similar to what some Indians think when talking about the PLAN build up just to assure themselves everything will work itself "we don't need to worry about them, the PLAN doesn't have experience, they don't have crews, quality is bad, they cant maintain ships blah blah blah.." I'm not saying that China will keep on producing 10 DDGs per year for ever, may be they would or may be they wouldn't who knows! may be after 2-4 years from now DDG production will be lowered back to 5 per year, I'm not Xi Jinping so I don't know how many DDGs the PLAN wants, but in any case the number of DDGs that have been produced in 2019 was undoubtibly a surge, in many cases a surge in weapons' production is done when a country is preparing for war that it knows will happen or intends to wage one (Taiwan sepratists better say their prayers), once the Taiwan issue is resolved then China may decide that it's pointless to maintain a huge DDG fleet & may bring down the DDG production rate to 3 or 4 per year, or may they wouldn't! it totally depends on how hawkish (or peacefull) China will be in the future.

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China's strategy is peaceful economic development, as evidenced by 20+ years of military spending at 2% of GDP.

But we've seen a rapid increase in DDG construction over the past 2 years, from an average of 3 per year to 10 per year.

This coincides with China being cast as the enemy by the US and a quasi-containment policy being waged.

So I really see China's future level of military spending being dependent on how the US acts.

If things do get worse, I reckon that China would build 10 DDG per year for the next 5 years.

That means the modern DDG fleet grows from 40 to 90 ships. Then they could drop down to a sustainable level of 6 DDG per year, which eventually means a fleet of 200.

But like i say, this is only if US-China relations get worse.

Appix said:

Hopefully Type 095 SSN will follow in the 2020's. They are needed with the Yellow Peril spreading as wildfire among the facists in Murica and their Anglo vassals. I heavily dislike Anglos (Australians, Americans, Brits) as Chinese. After all the misery since 1840's China need a good and strong military.

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Many "Anglos" post on this board and have a sincere interest in China's development and desire to see Chinese civilisation flourish, including a strong military-industrial complex to protect against foreign predation. Your self-described "dislike" of "Anglos" is crude and reflects a worldview that is not conducive to peace between the various peoples of this world.

@Mods just a suggestion, if you deem these comments (including this one) to be too political & may derail the thread well how about relocating them to the stratigic defense section instead of outrightly deleting them? like I don't know may be a new thread in strategic defense that would be called "Chinese strategy in the pacific".

Lethe said:

Many "Anglos" post on this board and have a sincere interest in China's development and desire to see Chinese civilisation flourish, including a strong military-industrial complex to protect against foreign predation. Your self-described "dislike" of "Anglos" is crude and reflects a worldview that is not conducive to peace between the various peoples of this world.

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he said nothing wrong though, there is daily anti-China propaganda being spread in the "5 eyes" countries, nowadays anti-China racisim is considered politicaly correct, ofcourse English & Chinese members here can be (& should be) nice & helpfull to each other, frankly I believe good relations between the members should trump political differences, I personaly have all the respect for all our English members here (if we have any).
it's unfortunate ofcourse but there is just no other way around it.... the 5 eyes will forever remain an existintional threat to the Chinese people for as long as the earth remains, why else do you think the PLAN is mass producing DDGs like hot cakes especially with this recent surge!
while most of us here are fanboying in excitement about "10 DDGs in a single year" but it's unnatural for a country in peace time to produce that much weapons no matter it's economic might, that is why I have no doubt that this surge means that a military campaign on Taiwan will happen in this decade, the DDGs will be used to shadow US carrier groups just few kilometers away from the carriers so as to have a kill switch over them, while other DDGs (like may be 12 type 055) will be armed with nuclear LACMs & will be sent to the US west cost in order to have a kill switch over mainland USA if Washington starts getting any funny ideas.

obj 705A said:

he said nothing wrong though, there is daily anti-China propaganda being spread in the "5 eyes" countries, nowadays anti-China racisim is considered politicaly correct, ofcourse English & Chinese members here can be (& should be) nice & helpfull to each other, frankly I believe good relations between the members should trump political differences, I personaly have all the respect for all our English members here (if we have any).
it's unfortunate ofcourse but there is just no other way around it.... the 5 eyes will forever remain an existintional threat to the Chinese people for as long as the earth remains, why else do you think the PLAN is mass producing DDGs like hot cakes especially with this recent surge!

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The problem is that the poster's language suggests that he dislikes "Anglos" -- not the policies of particular governments, or certain social or cultural trends, or the words or actions of certain people, but rather all Anglos, as a people. I would call that racism, just as I would if someone said they disliked "Chinese". Of course it is often the case that more narrowly expressed criticism masks a broader prejudice, and this is certainly true with respect to western criticism of China, which is usually expressed in terms of the policies and values of the CCP, when the truth is that a powerful China would be received with great anxiety in western (and other) societies irrespective of its form of government. Nonetheless, the distinction between peoples, their cultures and their governments is worth preserving, particularly when those distinctions are threatened by irresponsible discourse from reckless actors.

5 years ago I was talking about China building two Burke level ships for 30 years. Look at where we are now.
Of course 10 per year is not the sustainable rate, but it's approaching 60 fast.

Just my opinion that comes up next.

The surge is temporary, just like the Type 054A surge a few years ago. My artificial goalpost is the 052D line will reach 30 ships, based on the number for the Type 054A. This is artificial, like the goalpost Jeff Head said about the Type 056/056A class reaching 60 ships (its been about 11 ships over that line.) They can or may not continue once they reach this 30 ships. What comes up next would be an overhaul of the 052X program, whether they will revamp the design ahead as the 052E, or discontinue it and maybe build more 055 instead.

The number of destroyers being built may lessen if or when the 052D production ends, but each of the new ones are going to be 055 or an 055A design. The 055 design has many years ahead of it in terms of its future potential, so you will likely see more resources thrown into building more of it, particularly when China feels increasingly challenged.

The surge in destroyer production can dip and replaced by other building surges. Like suddenly building a lot of Type 095 submarines for instance. Or a large surge in building for carrier and naval aviation. Or even a revival in frigate shipbuilding. The new frigates and 052E successors will be more like downscaled mini 055s, sharing technologies with their big brother.

I don't think they will ever retrofit the two 051C. On the Sovremenny, only 136 and 137 will get the refit as this is already fait accompli, but 138 and 139 isn't going to get refitted. I think both 052B, the 168 Guangzhou and 169 Wuhan will get refitted, in a manner similar to the 167 Shenzhen. So 112, 113, 115 and 116, 138 and 139, about six destroyers, will see their replacements within this new decade (2020-2030), possibly in the first half. 167, 168 and 169 will get replaced along the second half, assuming 168 and 169 wasn't sold to someone else. That's another three destroyers looking to be replaced.

I do think possibility of Pakistan acquiring new Chinese warships high, but not on used warships, is because Pakistan is looking to build these new warships in a Pakistan shipyard in a dual partnership like they had with the FC-1. That is the smart thing to do as it helps jump starts Pakistan's own warship building efforts, and learn to to this on their own. Either they will use the 054A as the basis for this, or some other export frigate design proposed by the former CSSC, now CSG. This affects any potential purchase of Pakistan on the two stripped down 052B, and I believe that in the end, both 052B will be extensively refitted and returned to the PLAN active status. The two ships will see additional service for a number of years, but their fate and replacement has already been written before that.

Tam said:

I don't think they will ever retrofit the two 051C. On the Sovremenny, only 136 and 137 will get the refit as this is already fait accompli, but 138 and 139 isn't going to get refitted. I think both 052B, the 168 Guangzhou and 169 Wuhan will get refitted, in a manner similar to the 167 Shenzhen. So 112, 113, 115 and 116, 138 and 139, about six destroyers, will see their replacements within this new decade (2020-2030), possibly in the first half. 167, 168 and 169 will get replaced along the second half, assuming 168 and 169 wasn't sold to someone else. That's another three destroyers looking to be replaced.

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It is certainly possible that PLAN will begin to retire destroyers with fewer than thirty years of service, but until we actually see this happen I think the default assumption should be that past practice will continue, which would imply only four retirements over the next decade: the 051Gs and 052s.

Lethe said:

It is certainly possible that PLAN will begin to retire destroyers with fewer than thirty years of service, but until we actually see this happen I think the default assumption should be that past practice will continue, which would imply only four retirements over the next decade: the 051Gs and 052s.

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Normally yes. You should wait for the 30 year operational life to run out.

But under extraordinary circumstances, you should always consider changes. Those ships contain hundreds and hundreds of experienced crew and officers that can serve their country better in a much more modern and capable ship. You should be optimizing your resources best.

While the hulls might last those 30 years, I am afraid those Russian equipment --- those radars, those computers, those missiles --- may not, and the Chinese Navy does not have some service contract with the Russians to renew. That might be one of the reasons they are refitting 136 and 137 with all Chinese equipment. Both the 052B and the 051C are chock full of Russian equipment, and I don't mean the obvious missile systems. For example, both classes still use the original Russian Mineral ME radar instead of its Chinese derivative. Both ships still use the Russian Fregat MAE (Top Plate) radar instead of its Chinese derivative.

But if you upgrade them to their Chinese derivatives, you're upgrading them for yesterday. They are already obsolete when they come out of their upgrades given the situation always has constant advances in technology. How difficult would it be to upgrade them to handle the kind of threats that would appear in 2030? Should you expend the money and the development resources to make these ships future proof, there is the alternative cost of having these resources spent more efficiently elsewhere.

Given that both 052B have been stripped down completely and is currently not active and won't be for some time to come, their crews may already have been transferred to other ships which may have speeded up the commissioning of other new destroyers. Is it worth training a set of new crews for both ships? You're talking of 260 souls here for each ship, 260 souls you can put into a 052D, of which there is a long waiting line. And there is the Type 055, which there is also a long waiting line for crews to man them. So there is a kind of situation there if you imagine yourself in the shoes of whoever is in charge.

The circumstances between the Chinese navy and every other navy in the world is that procuring a new ship in any other navy is a very difficult process rife with political roadblocks and wrangling, and taking many years to reach the finish line. This makes it easier to keep upgrading ever older ships than procuring new ones.

In China, you have a problem everyone wishes they have. Making lots of new ships seems fast and easy, probably the easiest thing to do. New ships are coming out of the gills at the risk of becoming commodities. You have a reverse situation where making a new ship might be easier to do than doing a major midlife upgrade to one.

Tam said:

Normally yes. You should wait for the 30 year operational life to run out.

But under extraordinary circumstances, you should always consider changes. Those ships contain hundreds and hundreds of experienced crew and officers that can serve their country better in a much more modern and capable ship. You should be optimizing your resources best.

While the hulls might last those 30 years, I am afraid those Russian equipment --- those radars, those computers, those missiles --- may not, and the Chinese Navy does not have some service contract with the Russians to renew. That might be one of the reasons they are refitting 136 and 137 with all Chinese equipment. Both the 052B and the 051C are chock full of Russian equipment, and I don't mean the obvious missile systems. For example, both classes still use the original Russian Mineral ME radar instead of its Chinese derivative. Both ships still use the Russian Fregat MAE (Top Plate) radar instead of its Chinese derivative.

But if you upgrade them to their Chinese derivatives, you're upgrading them for yesterday. They are already obsolete when they come out of their upgrades given the situation always has constant advances in technology. How difficult would it be to upgrade them to handle the kind of threats that would appear in 2030? Should you expend the money and the development resources to make these ships future proof, there is the alternative cost of having these resources spent more efficiently elsewhere.

Given that both 052B have been stripped down completely and is currently not active and won't be for some time to come, their crews may already have been transferred to other ships which may have speeded up the commissioning of other new destroyers. Is it worth training a set of new crews for both ships? You're talking of 260 souls here for each ship, 260 souls you can put into a 052D, of which there is a long waiting line. And there is the Type 055, which there is also a long waiting line for crews to man them. So there is a kind of situation there if you imagine yourself in the shoes of whoever is in charge.

The circumstances between the Chinese navy and every other navy in the world is that procuring a new ship in any other navy is a very difficult process rife with political roadblocks and wrangling, and taking many years to reach the finish line. This makes it easier to keep upgrading ever older ships than procuring new ones.

In China, you have a problem everyone wishes they have. Making lots of new ships seems fast and easy, probably the easiest thing to do. New ships are coming out of the gills at the risk of becoming commodities. You have a reverse situation where making a new ship might be easier to do than doing a major midlife upgrade to one.

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I understand the argument and it may well be that PLAN will start to retire older destroyers earlier and replace them rather than putting them through MLU, but until we have direct evidence that this is happening I think the prudent assumption is that PLAN will continue its practice of maintaining vessels in service for at least 30 years. In any case, it will not be long before we are able to discern if PLAN is or is not going down this path.

Posted by LKJ86 at the PDF.