055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread

timepass said:

Time will tell, since the acquisition is unknown (numbers & types)....

Secondly, I don't want to go on this old mantra that China would not share XYZ with Pakistan as its currently in use with their forces....

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asif iqbal said:

China needed a heavyweight 100+ VLS cruiser

guess they got 6 now

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plawolf said:

Some of the old ships being MLU’d could well end up as military aid gifts rather than return to PLAN frontline service if the PLAN is keen to replace older ships without totally writing off any investments they already made on the MLU.

That could also be why the MLUs are progressing so slowly, if the PLAN is shopping around for foreign clients willing to part finance the (most expensive) electronics and weapons suite upgrades.

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If Pakistan is keen on expanding its surface fleet rapidly on the cheap, this could be an excellent opportunity, especially with the two 054s; and maybe 051Cs as well, if they want to add fleet air defence to their toolkit. Since the 051Cs are using Russian radars and SAMs, I think the PLAN could potentially let them go ‘as is’, with only minimal modifications to allow them to network with the rest of the Pakistani fleet needed.

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On a broader note, I think the length of the current and future global trade slumps would also be a massively important factor in PLAN capital ship procurement, although the correlation is likely to be the opposite of what many may think.

China sees shipbuilding as a core strategical national security industry, that means it will do all in its power to help it weather the current, and any future slump in commercial shopping demand; and the way China can do that is with military naval contracts.

The length of time new PLAN capital ships spend tied up at port after launch and even handover is an import indicator imho of how much the current warship building boom is beyond the PLAN’s original plans.

It is very out of character for the PLA to have such major hardware assets sitting ideal waiting on crews and/or subsystems, because the PLA is normally so meticulous and forward thinking that when they put plans into action, things normally run like clockwork. In addition, the PLA has always operated under the unofficial motto of ‘people wait for kit, not the other way around’. In that the PLA would much rather have fully trained up crews waiting on new kit to be completed than to have new kit sitting around for crews to be trained up sufficiently to start using them.

All of this points to the current shipbuilding pace as an unplanned for outlier rather than part of some Chinese master plan. And as such, it would be dangerous to assume that the current pace of warship construction is to be the new normal going forwards, especially if there is a global economic recovery and commercial orders picks up again.

In my view, the current capital ship production rate is determined primarily by the minimum actively levels needed to keep Chinese yards employed, to avoid having to lay off large numbers of highly skilled workers. That would not only create social and economic instability to the shipbuilding cities of China, but would also be skills that are expensive and time consuming to re-generate if lost.

The current breakneck speed at which Chinese yards are pumping out new warships are also likely to be impacted by the lack of commercial orders, as shipyards are likely to be putting far more people on shift to work on the warships than would normally be possible if they also had a massive commercial order book to work on.

All of this means that if there is a major global economic recovery in the near to medium future, with commercial shipping orders picking up once more, I would expect PLAN capital ship production to start easing off to a more conventional rate.

Conversely, if the current trade war and global economic slump continues, I would expect PLAN capital ship production to carry on at its current breakneck pace, if not accelerate.

From an overarching strategical point of view, this also makes good sense, because good relations between China and the US would be a critical contributing factor to fostering a global economic recovery and boom. If Sino-US relations markedly improve, there would also be less cause for China to need such a massive and powerful navy, since everyone knows there is only one foe China would need such a navy to counter. OTOH, if the current Sino-US trade war and general great power competition continues and intensifies, we are probably looking at a new Cold War, in which case the new arms race is well and truly on, and the PLAN would make every ship it can get.

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• 1 - in service
• 1 - in trail
• 4 - launched
• 4 - various construction stage

• 12 - in service
• 5 - in trails
• 6 - launched
• 2 - various construction stage

• 67 - in service
• 9 - launch/construction
• 12 - in contract

Pika said:

I should note that the some in the 12 in contract are recent additions. Mostly reactionary orders by Military leaders after the recent PLAN modernization and expansion.

These 12 numbers could decline if LSC (Large Surface Combatant) plan comes into fruition or increase if they axe or delay their LSC plan.

I'll bet they will increase these numbers or build a Flight III improvement or a Fight IV to function as an LSC role.

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Peter2018 said:

Even Korea's shipyards are able to crank out lots of ships per year. For China, because of the size of their shipbuilding industry, they can crank out 10 DDGs per year for the next 15 years, until 200 DDGs is reached. Then they can slow down a bit.

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Tam said:

I heard the possibility that Bangladesh might be interested on the two 054, but maybe Pakistan can go for both the 054 and the two 052B. Pakistan however needs to work out something with the Ukraine for the maintenance of the DW80 engines of the 052B however. But I also don't see much of political problem on that.

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Tam said:

Sales arms agreements usually have clauses that prevent you from selling the equipment to a third party without their permission. Given the Russians, Pakistan is what they have in mind because the Russians don't want to offend the Indians. Why would or should Pakistan want something the Indians have or have technological access to? Knowing what they are dealing with is winning half of the battle, and that is already a half win for the Indians. So 051C is likely a no go.

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Tam said:

The steam powered ships like the two 051C and the four Sovs are a pain to maintain, and it is wise to forget about them. But I'm not too hot about the DW80 engines on the 052B either, considering how one of the 052B, the Guangzhuo, broke down in the middle of her Gulf of Aden escort task mission and had to be towed back. They never used the 052B after that for those missions. The steam powered 051B was only used one time, and after that, never again, the 051C and the Sovs were never brought up for the escort use.

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