Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

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tidalwave

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But reporting shows that 10nm and below uses <10% US IP, so clearly changes have occurred overtime. The fact that the US has been out of the semiconductor manufacturing space for quite awhile (after out-sourcing everything) has ensured that new progress in field is European/Asia driven.
Don't worry, US will change to 5%..
 

tidalwave

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If Huawei got crushed which to the delight of US, but the real nightmare will begin.
Chinese economic dream will shatteref as well if Huawei get crushed.
China government will push the economic development aside and focus on the great gamble.

The great gamble of taking Taiwan within 10 yrs will full anticipation of rebuild Taiwan from ground up.

I am not sure that's to the interests of US long term it crushed Huawei at the current around.

Chinese government is preparing this scenario, that's why it building carriers like mad man. At least 4 strike groups ready by 2025. 2030 could be the year for the great gamble.
 
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styx

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you are telling nonsense, huawei will not be crushed, the tech war between usa and china is like first world war, it will be a long war of attrition that will be wim from who has most resources (china simply by market dimensions and number of engineers)
 

ougoah

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That's ridiculous. How does an invasion of Taiwan tie into any of this semiconductor sphere? Some people need to stop being so dramatic. Chinese gaps in total semi-conductor self reliance and leading the field are no bigger than Japan's or Taiwan's or Netherland's, or South Korea's i.e. leaders in their various fields within semi-conductor industries. Huawei's wellbeing may be a great importance especially in the field of communications technologies (as opposed to semi-conductors) but the real threat is being cut off from supply chains and cut off from being a part of the supply chain not just for semi-conductors but every piece of consumer and military electronic product. That's the real aim of the US. Even if all this is somehow lost (and that's a big freaking margin as unlikely as the USN losing all 10 CBGs), it is but one industry. It may be a big step back but it's like when people retrain or re-educate for different careers when the old one becomes unfeasible.

Dramatic give-uppers are perpetual losers. Those who persist eventually get to the top. No one said there is not going to be adversity. What you are suggesting can cause China to lose not just 10 or so years of work within one industry but decades of development in every field and every effort made to build China up. China needs to learn to take hits like it's always done. The relative passivity from CCP against Huawei attacks is to be expected if anything. What's more valuable than exporting smartphones and telecom tech is the engineers behind these technologies. They can adapt and continue towards taking the lead in every aspect of semi-conductor technology with or without export dollars flowing in for years.

Going all in on some sort of MAD is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Opportunities are abundant. By all means struggle against those forces and hit back, but why talk about invading Taiwan or banning all US tech products? That's doing a Trump and has an equal effect on China. If you're talking about banning Apple, Chinese consumers will get annoyed but will have to cooperate. After all Google, youtube, Facebook are already banned so it's been done first by China if you think about it that way. Unless you can use the threat to reverse the attacks on Huawei, there would be no point banning Apple. While they are totally overpriced electronics usually bought by wealthy youngsters, the US can use the same moves to hurt China much more. On this point Trump is correct due to the "trade deficit". The only thing Huawei can and should do is adapt with the financial assistance of the CCP by compensating relative financial losses due only to US attacks.
 
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tidalwave

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I foresee this US tech war ten years ago, now I will predict 10 years from now.
Huawei boasted it has no US components in its equipments. The current US 25% to 10% is a direct response to that. It will have a major repercussions. Don't believe ,just sit back and watch.
History is full examples when a country being economically sabotaged from all fronts it led something else.
China was hoping phase 1 would leads to easing of Huawei, but boy it will a rude awakening happen.
Renegade of phase 1 by China after that will be very likely
 
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tidalwave

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Then again, I put alot of blame on Huawei itself for not fully get into Semiconductor actively from manufacturing standpoint many years ago. It's too content going the fabless route. Getting into Semiconductor manufacturing is too messy from their stand point from all these years, now it affects the whole country. It also prepared harmony OS half hearted, otherwise they would have alot of apps in their HMS.
 

AndrewS

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US will announced in Jan 2020 the changes from 25% to 10% US content that will set the threshold forbidding companies supplying Huawei.. Clearly this is targetting TSMC. TSMC did a study and indicates 14nm process has about 15% US content therefore Huawei will not able use TSMC 14nm process. TSMC 7nm process has less than 10% therefore can be used for the time being. But US can change again and lower to like 5%. The goal is stop Huawei supply chain.

If TSMC 14nm has 15% US content , how about SMIC's 14nm ? It's not known yet.
SMIC can potentially dragged into being sanctioned due to US claiming it violating the law of supplying Huawei.

That's why I am promoting Huawei get its own fab and secretly license SMIC14/12nm process and have SMIC engineers secretly setup the fab in the background. This way, it won't implicate SMIC during this battle.

Also this is going to be big. Huawei uses alot fo non US components for replacement but this 10% rule will knock alot of non US suppliers to Huawei out.

Huawei maybe in big trouble this time.

Where did you see that the "TSMC 7nm process has less than 10%"
 

tidalwave

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Did some one not aware China government announced banning all US tech products in government branch? It will spread out in 3 yrs.
 

tidalwave

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据彭博和路透的报导,美国商务部可能在明年的 1 月 17 日,将针对华为的出口管制美国技术标准从 25%调到 10%,以中断台积电等非美企业对华为供货。



路透并指出,台积电内部评估,7nm 来自美国技术比率目前约在 9 点多,仍可继续进行,14nm 以上的制程,美国技术比率在 15%以上,一旦限缩在 10%,将无法再为华为旗下的海思提供芯片代工服务
 
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