Chinese Economics Thread

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Mar 5, 2019
while now
Economic Watch: China poised to meet economic targets for 2019
Xinhua| 2019-12-16 20:45:41
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Would you both please - as per the rules - at least add a personnel opinion or sentence to your post. You surely know, that posting only links without anything more is against the rules.
 
Deino who's "both" in your post in blue above?
one is me (thought it's obvious my point has been the timeline
Mar 5, 2019
Monday at 8:20 PM
of the GDP growth data and their presentation),
but whom else did you mean?
I want to know so that I can compare his/her content to what I've posted

Clipboard596_2.jpg
 

SamuraiBlue

Captain
China's domestic bond market defaults tops records
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The domestic defaults in China's domestic bond market are at $18.7bln, but the offshore bond defaults, a total of just eight, are at $1.97bln.
Here is a look at some of the pros and cons for China's credit going forward:

Pro's

  • Defaults are part of a developed credit market and by allowing the market to price in risk shows that Beijing is moving towards a healthy economy able to manage defaults
  • Defaults may pick up, but they are at a low number at present.
  • The more realistic pricing of risk (i.e. defaults are allowed to happen) is actually improving trust among investors and this has resulted in more cash moving into China's junk bonds which look appealing in a low interest rate yielding environment
Con's
  • The default rates may be low, but the type of companies defaulting is a concern
  • The biggest state owned firm in 20 years defaulted on dollar debt which raises doubt over Beijing's support for government-linked borrowers
  • Wholesale, sector bail outs no longer available as China's economy slows
  • If dollar debt is no longer prioritised over domestic bonds (to avoid international reputational damage) then domestic defaults may spill over into the offshore market.
China state-owned firms could see more defaults and fewer bailouts from Beijing, analysts say
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Brace for more defaults by
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state-owned businesses, analysts warn.

A huge bond default by a large state-owned business spooked investors last week, prompting experts to question if it’s a sign that Chinese government bailouts may be dwindling.

“We believe bailouts will be increasingly selective, leading to more defaults by SOEs,” said ratings agency S&P Global Ratings in a note, referring to state-owned enterprises in China.... to read further
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@Jura , I really do not need to go and search these kind of news since it is in the Economy section of various established economy news publishers.
You can see forexlive gave a fair analysis giving the pros and cons of the present situation. Lets see how it turns out.
 
Tuesday at 8:48 AM
Yesterday at 8:11 PM
followup
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Trade war: China watchers gear up for ‘noisy ceasefire’ despite completion of phase one deal with US

  • US-China trade war phase one deal largely welcomed, but businesses and former trade officials wary of getting carried away
  • Geopolitical issues provide ample potential for deal to get interrupted, while text needs to be translated, legally scrubbed and proofread, state media said

makes me wonder how they'll make it enforceable
related views by Chinese sources:

China is honoring trade deal; it’s the US’ turn
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with an interesting Dec. 26 speculation inside,

and
Xi says phase-one China-U.S. trade deal benefits both sides, world
Xinhua| 2019-12-21 04:44:03
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also mentioning Taiwan etc.
 
Glob. Times sounding desperate, even quoting
Matthew 22:21
!!
Banning Huawei will cost US opportunity in 5G era
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the context is "The final version of the defense bill contains new restrictions meant to prevent the administration from taking Huawei off a Commerce Department list that bans American firms from working with the company without specific exemptions." (
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)
 

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yeah, I have no idea what Xi and his team are doing. They are really going to sign and implement an unequal treaty? Again? Lets wait and see. I already have started to call Xi a sell-out. Unbelievable, spits on all the revolutionaries of the past century that have freed us of foreign suppression and unequal treaties.

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I have said Xi is going to sign an unequal treaty. Someone should edit the Wiki-page about unequal treaties when he sends Vice-Premier Liu He to sign the unequal treaty ('phase one trade deal') in January 2020. Mao and Deng are spinning in their graves. Really, really disappointed with Xi. Maybe it's time that he will be removed from office including Li Keqiang and Liu He and appoint people that will fight for Chinese sovereignity and dignity instead of being a sell-out and giving huge concessions on a platter to the US.

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localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
I have said Xi is going to sign an unequal treaty. Someone should edit the Wiki-page about unequal treaties when he sends Vice-Premier Liu He to sign the unequal treaty ('phase one trade deal') in January 2020. Mao and Deng are spinning in their graves. Really, really disappointed with Xi. Maybe it's time that he will be removed from office including Li Keqiang and Liu He and appoint people that will fight for Chinese sovereignity and dignity instead of being a sell-out and giving huge concessions on a platter to the US.

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Define an equal treaty
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I have said Xi is going to sign an unequal treaty. Someone should edit the Wiki-page about unequal treaties when he sends Vice-Premier Liu He to sign the unequal treaty ('phase one trade deal') in January 2020. Mao and Deng are spinning in their graves. Really, really disappointed with Xi. Maybe it's time that he will be removed from office including Li Keqiang and Liu He and appoint people that will fight for Chinese sovereignity and dignity instead of being a sell-out and giving huge concessions on a platter to the US.

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Could you point out the part that bothers you? Because I haven't seen anything that fundamentally alters the big trend that China will continue growing quickly and the US will continue growing relatively slowly. I see nothing enforceable and nothing that provides additional safety or such for the IP of American companies that want to do business in the Chinese market. If you see something, point it out. From what I see, China said that it will buy more US goods over 2 years (so no lump sum and something they can always halt and hold over America's head should things go sour) and none of the fundamental alterations to China's economy or the economic relationship between the two countries that America wanted. I think you're falling for Trump's trick, which is to make a deal that has little to no impact and then brag about it being a success to his voters.

The biggest fundamental and lasting take-way from this is that now, Chinese companies are striving to develop indigenous tech rather than relying on American parts and the average Chinese consumer has become much more politically-conscious when making purchases.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Buying more US goods isn't really a problem. It's not that much more than before Trump started his trade war. I haven't heard anything of the more outrageous demands Trump made earlier like the US has a say and an US official gets posted in Beijing that gets to oversee all of China's economic planning or how the US can slap tariffs while China cannot. Just the idea of a "phase one" deal is Trump spinning victory out of him getting less than he promised to his voters. Are we really going to see a "phase two"? Only if he gets elected for a 2nd term. He had to get some sort of a deal done before the election. Here in the US, I mostly hear how this is a horrible deal or falls short of what Trump promised he would get from China. So if the deal was such a defeat for China and a win for the US, why would the US side want the deal killed?
 

styx

Junior Member
Registered Member
i think that china will make a counteroffensive next year when american economy will definitely lose steam and trump will be in the worst position strugglin with recession.
 
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