Hong-Kong Protests

once again going back to Yesterday at 2:43 PM
as now
Police say turnout peaked at 183,000
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and the organizer (
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):
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I hate to say it but I told you so.

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Hong Kong sees biggest protests since democrats' election boost
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Vast crowds of black-clad demonstrators thronged Hong Kong on Sunday in the largest anti-government protests since local elections last month that boosted the pro-democracy movement seeking to curb controls by China.

It was the first time since August that the Civil Human Rights Front - organizer of million-strong marches earlier in the year that paralyzed the Asian finance center - had received authorities’ permission for a rally.

It estimated turnout of 800,000 while police said 183,000.
...

Event taking the organizer's numbers ~800K showing up now is a lot less than the ~2M showing up at rallies earlier in the summer.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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Read the Hong Kong Free Press response to Ukrainian Nazis marching with Hong Kong protestors. Sounds just like Trump defending Nazis marching in Charlottesville. This just shows how immature the minds of these Hong Kong protestors are that they do not understand what that looks like if it were the Western world. See I gave them the benefit of the doubt that they're just naïve and not sympathetic like they charge with TRIADS and the communist government. Of course they don't have to worry because since it's anti-China, they're okay with it. I bet the Jewish groups that are normally vocal are silent on this too. Why? Because they too see a rising China as a threat to their narrative of the world. Just like with Marco Rubio. Who gives a crap about what right-wing Cuban-Americans want but the US gives them a voice. China won't give them a priority because China owes them nothing because China wasn't involved in any wrong that they see was committed against them. That's why Marco Rubio hates China so much because a prominent China in this world means Cuban-American interests are about as worth as anyone elses maybe even less with China because of Marco Rubio. The same with Jewish interests. China doesn't have a history of anti-Semitism yet fear because China is not obligated out of guilt to promote their interests especially if they take a geopolitically anti-China stance which they seem to be doing. Stay silent on Ukrainian Nazis marching with Hong Kong protestors just like they stay silent on American religious groups who are the number one perpetuators of anti-Semitism trying to covert others to their religion.

Don't ever believe China faces people who love freedom and democracy. The US wants everyone to believe their side is full of altruistic people. No the US has an alliance of people looking to push their interests because the US looks out for their interests. Vietnam is communist yet the US likes Vietnamese communists more than Chinese communists. Why? It's only because Vietnamese suck up to the US where the Chinese in power positions don't. Vietnam doesn't want China in power and they can't stop China by themselves. The US calls Saudi Arabia as an ally despite it's not being a democracy because having influence in a strategic resource like oil is more important. Self-interests rule them and that's contradiction to caring for others unless it serves their interests first.
 

KYli

Brigadier
Event taking the organizer's numbers ~800K showing up now is a lot less than the ~2M showing up at rallies earlier in the summer.

This rally if not the top 5 biggest rallies, then at least it is the top 10 biggest rallies. If you wanted to argue that this rally didn't show that the oppositions still retain a significant supports, then I have nothing more to say.

The withdrawal of the extradition bill, victory at the district elections, and no significant fake news should have dampened the outpour of people but somehow they can still muster that many people show you that this isn't going to end any time soon.
 
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supercat

Major
This rally if not the top 5 biggest rallies, then at least it is the top 10 biggest rallies. If you wanted to argue that this rally didn't show that the oppositions still retain a significant supports, then I have nothing more to say.

The withdrawal of the extradition bill, victory at the district elections, and no significant fake news should have dampened the outpour of people but somehow they can still muster that many people show you that this isn't going to end any time soon.

It seems to me that the Chinese government has determined that they will neither yield to any of the demands nor crackdown violently. That means the protest can keep going on, but nothing substantial will happen. So it will eventually die down after a while - just my 2 cents.
 

KYli

Brigadier
It seems to me that the Chinese government has determined that they will neither yield to any of the demands nor crackdown violently. That means the protest can keep going on, but nothing substantial will happen. So it will eventually die down after a while - just my 2 cents.

We have learned from Occupy Central that those moderates are weak and self-centered. They can be wore down and waited out. The main issue is it doesn't take much for the moderates to come out to protests, and that embolden the radicals to think that they can continue the riots.

For the radicals, some estimates put their numbers between 20,000 to 40,000. The new HK police chief is a hardliner. For the past few weeks including PolyU incident, the HK police has successfully arrested thousands of rioters(radicals). This morning the HKPF has dispatched thousands of police to MTR subway and major intersections to deter and arrest any instigators. So if the HKPF can remain active in arresting these rioters and make no major mistakes, then things would eventually quiet down. But that is being optimistic.

If foreign entities or Taiwan continued to pour in more resources, then things might not die down or can even be escalated. If they pulled off something like Ukraine, then hell would break loose. The arrest from yesterday shows that they intend to frame the HKPF by using a Glock(And bullet proof vest and other standard police weapon) which is a standard gun used by the HK riot police. More importantly, the HK legislative elections would be held in September 2020. It is a must win for the pan-Dems camp in order to partially control legislative council and influence the outcome of selecting the HK Chief Executive in 2022. For the pan-Dems camp, they are not going to sit around and letting the riots to die down. If I am being pessimistic, then things would not die down and instead it would escalate before the HK legislative election.

There are two factors that are not good for the HK government. First, the support of the pan-Dems camp remains strong even after so much violence. Not only that, the pan-Dems camp has actively coordinated with radicals without consequences. That means pan-Dems camp has no reason to cut ties with the radicals. Second, it wouldn't take long for fresh recruitment to fill the rank for the radicals and new recruits would be even more radicalized. Can the HKPF fend off the future generation of the radicals that are more aggressive and brutal without bloodshed? I am not even talking about the HK economy or the long term fix. Things don't look good for HK.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think they planned [the riots] for a particular time. It is more of a planned waiting for an opportunity!

This may be closer to the truth. I take for granted that the Western dirty-tricks people have always had something subversive planned for China.


They know that once the kids in the education system been brain washed, it will be forever.

The brainwashing may not last forever. The Soviets undoubtedly tried to educate their children in what they considered the "right way", but when the kids grew up they still dumped the USSR. Similarly, when the Hong Kong economy deteriorates so much that the decay is undeniable -- especially when compared to Shenzhen, next door -- I think the sensible Hong Kongers will be sensible.

I'm not attacking you; I just think this is an interesting point to discuss.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
I hate to say it but I told you so.

Police estimate 183,000 people were there -- or less than 3 percent of Hong Kong's population. How can that possibly be interpreted as proving that a majority of the people support the violence? (Even if we could assume that everyone who was there was supporting the violent thugs.)

(Even the 800,000 figure -- which is probably very inflated -- is nowhere near a majority.)
 

KYli

Brigadier
Police estimate 183,000 people were there -- or less than 3 percent of Hong Kong's population. How can that possibly be interpreted as proving that a majority of the people support the violence? (Even if we could assume that everyone who was there was supporting the violent thugs.)

(Even the 800,000 figure -- which is probably very inflated -- is nowhere near a majority.)

"In any case, it is clear that there were a lot of protesters in the summer -- and nearly all of them have NOT been showing up in recent protests."
That's what you said.
is more evidence for thinking that the rioters are losing popular support.
That's what you said.

You based your argument on a simple "observation" that is "that lots of people are avoiding recent protests and and nearly all of them have NOT been showing up in recent protests which is refuted by the fact that 12/8 rally is one of the biggest rallies, maybe not top 5 rallies but at least one of the top 10 biggest rallies.

You can refuse to admit that your observation is wrong. But as I said, there are many reasons why there are less people at recent rallies and have explained many of them. More importantly, I said that the election result shows the majority of the voters support the rioters over the HK government. I never said that the majority of voters support violence. There is a difference between taking the side of the rioters than simply supporting the violence.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
My two penneth on the protest movement itself.
Its biggest strength and possibly its eventual biggest future weakness is that it is currently "fashonable" and "cool". Certainly if you are 18, then the danger, excitement and hormones from having large numbers of boys and girls protesting by day, gives the promise of a lot of fun by night. If you are 14, then not only is it "cool", it is also "grown up".
That is a powerful force to have to reckon with.#
The danger however for the instigators and organisers, is that it can all of a sudden and with very little warning become "unfashionabe" and "uncool".
We all know that there is nothing less cool than yesterdays fashion!

They will get bored by the mayhem sooner or later and they will start to resent the disruption caused by the damage.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
We have learned from Occupy Central that those moderates are weak and self-centered. They can be wore down and waited out. The main issue is it doesn't take much for the moderates to come out to protests, and that embolden the radicals to think that they can continue the riots.

For the radicals, some estimates put their numbers between 20,000 to 40,000. The new HK police chief is a hardliner. For the past few weeks including PolyU incident, the HK police has successfully arrested thousands of rioters(radicals). This morning the HKPF has dispatched thousands of police to MTR subway and major intersections to deter and arrest any instigators. So if the HKPF can remain active in arresting these rioters and make no major mistakes, then things would eventually quiet down. But that is being optimistic.
.
20 000 is more than enough for a civil war.

Only luck of HK is China has control above the sea, so the Capitol cant shift the situation to civil war by shipping heavy weapons to the rioters. (like in Syria )
 
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