Like I said before. It isn't about the truth. It is more about which side you choose to be with. This article pretty much sums up what I see things.
The dust of the district council election is settled, and some pro-establishment voters have asked whether 1.6 million votes are missing. This is only a false consolation. In fact, if you lose, you lose.
An analysis of the election results should adopt a pragmatic spirit and find out the truth from the results. In the current district board election, the establishment voter obtained 42.3% of the total votes, while the opposition got 56.9%, which basically reflected the public opinion's four-six ratio. On the other hand, in the 2015 regional elections, the opposition obtained only 38.5% of the votes, while the pro-establishment votes were as high as 55.8%. The main reason was that the election at that time was not so political, and it did not reflect the large public opinion of the ratio of four to six.
The percentage voters voted for the pro-establishment was 42.3%, showing that the vast majority of people who support the pro-establishment have already voted. It can be said that even if they are not satisfied with the performance of the chief executive, they still vote in tears. Therefore, the key to the result of this ballot is not that the pro-establishment supporters did not vote, but that the opposition have more people came out to vote.
From another point of view, even after more than five months of violent demonstrations took place, causing great damage to the society,
but did not cause the 60% of the opposition supporters to change their mind, or the so-called "Peace, Rational, Non-violence, non-profanity" votes to be changed. The government or the pro-establishment thought that the repeated smashing and burning would cause the "Peace, Rational, Non-violence, non-profanity voters" vote to turn, or at least not to vote, but this situation did not occur, and it is the most unpredictable in this election.
I've talked to many young people and understand their views. The biggest blind spot of the pro-establishemnt was that they did not understand the problem of "police violence" (police violence) in the mind of the other party. If you ask some young people, will they accept that the 57-year-old construction worker in Ma'anshan was pull gasoline and set ablaze by people in black, the response of the young people will be one.
The whole thing is just a show, and it is false. ; 2.
Those in black are disguised as "black police officers"; 3. More rational would say, "I also oppose these things, but
The pro-establishment felt that young people were both deviated from reality and thoughts were naive. However, after you have discussed with the young people in depth, you will find that they believe that the police ’s abuse of violence is “founded” and killed at least six demonstrators at Prince Edward Station. In addition, the 15-year-old female student Chen Yanlin of IVE was also killed by police and dumped to the sea. Of course, the university student Zhou Zile was also pushed down by the police.
Since the police are so brutal, this regime is a tyranny. In the face of tyranny, the rebellious violence, even if it is not acceptable, is understandable. Some young people even feel that violence is a necessary means of resistance.
These perceptions are supported by poll data. A survey this month asked citizens whether they accepted the violent and destruction by the protesters, and the results showed that only 39.8% of the respondents did not accept it; 27.7% understood but did not accept it; 24% understood and accepted it; There are 7.1% totally support it. The proportion of people who of understanding to acceptance is 58.7%.
More importantly, these figures have not changed much compared to the polls in July. And the proportion of people who understand or accept violence (58.7%) is quite close to the 56.9% vote of the District Council in favor of the opposition.
Because so many people "understand or support" violence, even after a series of violent demonstrations, they have not been turned to oppose the opposition. In addition,
opinion polls show that 42.5% of people believe that the SAR government should bear the greatest responsibility for violence, while only 12.9% think that violent demonstrators should bear the biggest responsibility. This explains the logic of the people who voted for the opposition. Although the demonstrators are violent, the police's killings and corpses are far more brutal, and the SAR government is responsible for all kinds of violence. So they insisted on voting for the opposition.
The core view of the opposition is "police brutality", which is based on numerous false news. For example, opinion polls show that 48% of people believe that the police killed the demonstrators at Prince Edward Station. But the riots have continued to this day. The government has not set up a war room to fight public opinion. Letting opponents fabricate and disseminate news of police killings has caused many people to have a deep-rooted concept of hatred, coupled with extremely low popularity among the chief executive. It has become the core reason for the defeat of the establishment. (Lu Yongxiong)
【專欄】區選追蹤—「和理非」選票沒有轉移之謎
區議會選舉塵埃落定，部份建制派選民執拗是否有一百六十萬張選票失蹤，這只是一種虛假慰藉，其實輸了就是輸了。
分析選舉結果應該採取一個務實求真的精神，從結果當中發掘真相。是次的區議會選舉，建制派整體得票率42.3%，而反對派得票率為56.9%，基本上反映出大民意的四六之比。反觀二○一五年的區選，反對派得票率只有38.5%，而建制派得票率高達55.8%，主要是當時的選舉沒有那麼政治性，便沒有反映出四六之比的大民意。
建制派得票率42.3%，顯示絕大多數支持建制的人已經出來投票，可以說即使他們不滿意特首的表現，也含淚投票。所以，出現這個選票結果的關鍵，不是支持建制派的人沒有投票，而是對家有更多人出來投票。
從另一角度看，即時發生了五個多月的連場暴力示威，令社會造成重大損害，也沒有令到那六成的反對派支持者，或者所謂「和理非」的選票轉移。政府或者建制派以為連番的打砸搶燒，會令到「和理非」投票轉向，或者至少不出來投票，但結果這種情況並沒有出現，是今次選舉當中最叫人猜不到的地方。
我與很多年輕人談過，頗了解他們的看法。發現建制派最大的盲點，是不理解對方心目中的「警暴」（警察暴力）問題。如果問一些年輕人，他們會否接受馬鞍山五十七歲的綠衣建築工人被黑衣人淋天拿水並放火焚燒，年輕人的回應會是一、整件事只是一場表演，是假的；二、那些黑衣人是「黑警」假扮的；三、比較理性的會說：「這些事情我也反對，不過…… 」
建制派聽完會覺得年輕人既偏離現實，想法也很天真。但當你和年輕人深入討論之後，會發現他們認為警察濫用暴力「有根有據」，在太子站殺死了至少六名示威者，另外，那名IVE的十五歲女學生陳彥霖也是被警察打死之後，棄屍海中。當然，科大學生周梓樂也是被警察推落樓的。既然警察如此殘暴，這個政權就一個暴政，面對暴政，那些反抗的暴力，即使不能夠接受，但可以理解。甚至有部份年輕人覺得，暴力是必要的反抗手段。
這些觀感是有民調數據支持的。有本月的調查問市民是否接受示威者的暴力衝擊和破壞，結果顯示完全不接受的受訪者只有39.8%；理解但不接受的有27.7%；理解並接受的有24%；完全接受的有7.1%。把理解加上接受的人數比例高達58.7%。而更重要的是與7月時的民調比較，這些數字沒有太大變化。而理解或接受暴力衝擊的人群比例（58.7%）與今次區議會投票結果56.9%支持反對派相當接近。
由於這麼多人「理解或支持」暴力，所以即使經歷連場的暴力示威，也沒有令到他們轉而反對反對派。另外，民調又顯示，有42.5%的人認為特區政府要為暴力負最大的責任，而覺得暴力示威者要負最大責任的只有12.9%。這解釋了投反對派票的人群的邏輯，示威者固然暴力，但警察殺人滅屍的行為遠為殘暴，而要為各種暴力負責任的是特區政府。所以，他們堅持要投票給反對派。
反對派的核心觀點是「警暴」，基礎是眾多虛假消息，例如民調顯示有48%的人認為警察在太子站打死了示威者。但暴動延續至今，政府並無成立心戰室去打輿論戰，任由對手捏造和散播警察殺人的消息，令很多人形成根深柢固的仇警概念，再加上特首極低的民望，就成為今次建制派敗選的核心原因。（盧永雄）
全文刊於《頭條日報》「巴士的點評」專欄
