Chinese Economics Thread

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Changing the goal posts, aren’t you? We were talking about the supply of RMB and i just prove to you trade deficit is not a prerequisite. The central bank will always be the one holding the bag. Look how much US treasury Chinese central bank has

Shifting currency risk to the central bank by swap doesn't increase the supply of currency in the hand of foreigners.

Simple, isn't it ?

And we have proof as well, euro zone has lot of swap agreement with many bank, and the Euro doesn't even close to the dollar in the international transactions .

To have stability in exchange rate you need lot of money in the hand of everyone, without risk associated with the swaps.

It requiring equity, not loan.
 
now I read
China’s industrial engine slowed to new 17-year low in August, even before new US trade war tariffs took effect
  • Industrial production, which measures industrial output grew at 4.4 per cent last month, down from 4.8 per cent in July and the lowest growth since February 2002
  • Retail sales, a key metric of consumption in the world’s most populous nation, grew by 7.5 per cent, below analysts’ forecasts
Updated: 11:32am, 16 Sep, 2019
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China’s industrial engine continued to stutter in August, with a key gauge of the country’s manufacturing output slumping to a new 17-year low, in the last month before the United States imposed new tariffs on Chinese-made goods.

Industrial production, which measures China’s industrial output, including manufacturing, mining and utilities, grew at 4.4 per cent last month, down from 4.8 per cent in July, which in itself was the lowest rate since February 2002. This was well below a poll of analysts taken by Bloomberg that had expected growth of 5.2 per cent.

A batch of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday also showed that retail sales, a key metric of consumption in the world’s most populous nation, grew by 7.5 per cent, also below analysts’ forecasts of 7.9 per cent expansion. This was a slight decline on July’s 7.6 per cent growth and the lowest figure since April.

Fixed asset investment, the level of spend on physical assets, including real estate and infrastructure, grew by 5.5 per cent in the first eight months of 2019. This was down from 5.7 per cent in July, and – again – below analysts’ expectations. The Bloomberg poll had forecast no change. This was the lowest growth in fixed asset investment since August 2018, when it was 5.3 per cent.

Within industrial production, the NBS figures showed slumps in both manufacturing and mining. Manufacturing grew by 4.3 per cent in August, down from 4.4 per cent in July and 5.2 per cent in June. Mining output, meanwhile, grew by 3.7 per cent last month, down from 6.6 per cent last month.

The continued slump in China’s industrial sectors came in the last month before
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of Chinese goods rose to 15 per cent on September 1. There is scant evidence of front-loading in the data, which was telegraphed by weak trade numbers for August released last week and weak sentiment among China’s factory owners.

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fell by 1 per cent in August, while imports fell by 5.6 per cent. Imports have fallen in all but one month in 2019 – April – with around 40 per cent of China’s overall imports estimated to be raw materials and components used in other goods.

The
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– a gauge of sentiment among factory owners – remained negative in August, with expectations of new export orders declining again. Despite the fact that
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announced plans to delay the planned increase of tariffs on US$250 billion of Chinese goods to 30 per cent from October 1 to October 15, most analysts expect this to come in eventually, further pressuring export-oriented manufacturers.

Fixed asset investment growth for the year-to-date had been flat, but in August it declined, despite the government’s efforts to funnel money towards infrastructure projects in a bid to boost the economy. Many analysts have pointed out that the major impact of the trade war on both the economies of the US and China to date has been a chilling effect on investment, and August’s growth slump is likely to indicate just that.

“Fixed investment expanded at a weaker-than-expected [rate]”, said Martin Lynge Rasmussen, China economist at Capital Economics. “This was the result of weakness in property construction and manufacturing overshadowing strong infrastructure spending.”

Beijing has taken a number of stimulus steps, including loosening local governments’ fundraising restrictions and reducing the
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commercial banks need to hold at the central bank – designed to pump money into the economy in the form of loans.

Yet, this has done little thus far to boost consumption. Retail sales have been on a downward trajectory for the last couple of years, a reflection of many of the issues in China’s debt-laden economy that predate the trade war.

Again, the uncertainty that the US-China dispute brings to the table is acting as a dampener on consumption, as can be seen in the unrelenting slump in China’s car market. Car sales in China fell by 6.9 per cent in August, marking the 14th successive monthly slump, with individuals and businesses appearing to be holding back on big ticket purchases while the geopolitical situation remains so volatile.

Recent noises from both Beijing and Washington have been more positive with regard the short-term possibility of a trade deal, with China announcing on Friday that it would exempt
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from the US, including pork and soybeans, from additional tariffs. In the case of pork, China’s demand situation means this is viewed in some quarters as necessity, with African swine fever threatening to wipe out more than half of the national herd.

Nonetheless, should it lead to an “
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” – in the words used by Trump last week – it could help galvanise sluggish investment and consumption in China, which has been buried by negative data for most of 2019.

Talks will resume in October, when a Chinese delegation led by Vice-Premier Liu He travels to Washington. However, given that many of China’s economic issues predate the trade war, this sort of short-term deal may leave analysts to measure their expectations as to its impact on the economy.

“China’s economy is undergoing a cyclical economic downturn driven almost entirely by domestic factors. The key drivers of the slowdown are tight financial conditions, thanks to a recent financial derisking campaign, and weak local government investment,” said Andrew Polk, the co-founder of economic consultancy Trivium China, in a
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to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
 
8 minutes ago
now I read
China’s industrial engine slowed to new 17-year low in August, even before new US trade war tariffs took effect
  • Industrial production, which measures industrial output grew at 4.4 per cent last month, down from 4.8 per cent in July and the lowest growth since February 2002
  • Retail sales, a key metric of consumption in the world’s most populous nation, grew by 7.5 per cent, below analysts’ forecasts
Updated: 11:32am, 16 Sep, 2019
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now
China's industrial output up 4.4 pct in August
Xinhua| 2019-09-16 11:15:41
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China's value-added industrial output, an important economic indicator, expanded 4.4 percent year on year in August, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Monday.

The growth rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than that logged in July, according to the NBS.

On a monthly basis, the industrial output rose 0.32 percent from July.

In the first eight months, industrial output climbed 5.6 percent from the same period last year, down from 5.8 percent registered during the January-July period, the NBS data showed.

Industrial output, officially called industrial value added, is used to measure the activity of designated large enterprises with annual business turnover of at least 20 million yuan (about 2.8 million U.S. dollars).

In a breakdown by ownership, the output of state-controlled enterprises went up 4.1 percent year on year in August, while that of joint-stock companies went up 5.3 percent and that of overseas-funded enterprises and enterprises with investment from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 1.3 percent.

The production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water reported a year-on-year increase of 5.9 percent in August, the fastest among the three major sectors, which also include mining and manufacturing.

Manufacturing output rose 4.3 percent year on year, and output growth of the mining sector rose 3.7 percent.

High-tech manufacturing led the overall industrial output growth with its 6.1-percent year-on-year increase.
 
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China's industrial output up 4.4 pct in August
Xinhua| 2019-09-16 11:15:41
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10:42, 16-Sep-2019
August data: China's economy remains stable

Positive signs point to resilience in face of risks: officials

China's economy remains on track in August with signs of stable growth, said Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

China's industrial output expanded by 4.4 percent year on year in August.

Retail sales increased by 8.2 percent year on year from January to August.

The country's investment in property development grew by 10.5 percent in the same period of last year, down from 10.6 percent in the first seven months of 2019.

EDIT
China’s economy still under pressure in August, but signs point to strong resilience
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/9/16 21:38:40
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China's economy continued to face mounting downward pressure in August, with growth in industrial output, retail sales and investment decelerating further, but positive signs also emerged that show strong resilience in the face of both internal and external risks, official data showed on Monday.

Despite the persistent downward pressure, officials and analysts are still confident that growth in the world's second-largest economy will be able to remain in the annual target of 6-6.5 percent, given the ample scope for fiscal and monetary policy and the potential of the domestic market.

Industrial output registered growth of 4.4 percent in August, the slowest pace in 17 years and 0.4 percentage point slower than in July, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

Growth in retail sales and investment also slowed in August, NBS data showed. Retail sales grew 7.5 percent year-on-year to 3.389 trillion yuan ($479 billion), 0.1 percentage point lower than July. Fixed-asset investment grew by a mere 0.4 percent year-on-year in August.

Though the data highlighted persistent downward pressure on the economy, other figures also showed stability in the first eight months of the year, according to Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the NBS.

At a press briefing on Monday, Fu said that China's industrial structure is being optimized and growth in the high-technology service industry is significantly higher than overall growth.

Information transmission, software and information technology services grew by 16.9 percent, and leasing and business services grew by 8.1 percent, both higher than the 6.4 percent growth of the Index of Services Production in August, NBS data showed.

"Clearly, signs of quality growth are accumulating and the economic structure is optimizing, both positive signs during a tough transition period," Yuan Fuhua, director of the economic growth office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Monday.

Yuan further noted that the difficulty for the Chinese economy should not be exaggerated and that major indicators will be kept within expectations and reasonable ranges.

In an interview with the Russian TASS news agency, Premier Li Keqiang struck a confident note on the economy, despite a complex international context and a higher base.

"The Chinese government has full confidence and ability to overcome all types of risks and challenges and keep economic growth stable and sound," Li said, according to a transcript published on the Chinese government's website on Monday.

Li stressed the need to secure and improve living standards, noting China will continue to increase investment in this area, as well as secure employment and increase input into social security, education and healthcare.

Employment remained stable in the first eight months of the year, with 9.84 million urban jobs added, accounting for 89.5 percent of the annual goal, according to the NBS.

Liu Xuezhi, an economist at Bank of Communications, said that China still has room to launch more active fiscal and monetary policies, including interest rate cuts, to stabilize the economy when necessary.

The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, announced on September 6 a cut in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions of 50 basis points effective on Monday, which will release long-term funds of about 900 billion yuan.
 
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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Shifting currency risk to the central bank by swap doesn't increase the supply of currency in the hand of foreigners.

Simple, isn't it ?

And we have proof as well, euro zone has lot of swap agreement with many bank, and the Euro doesn't even close to the dollar in the international transactions .

To have stability in exchange rate you need lot of money in the hand of everyone, without risk associated with the swaps.

It requiring equity, not loan.

Whatever. The point is there are plenty of ways to spread RMB around
 
noticed
China will release 10,000 tons of pork from its national reserves

Updated 7:45 AM ET, Tue September 17, 2019
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China will release 10,000 metric tons of pork from its central reserves this week in a bid to stabilize soaring pork prices and cope with a swine fever crisis that has wiped out roughly one third of its pigs.
The frozen pork will be auctioned online on Thursday afternoon, China Merchandise Reserve Management Center, a state-owned company that manages the reserves, said in a statement on Tuesday.
The pork is imported from the United States, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Germany, France and Chile. Major suppliers include American firms Smithfield, Clemens Food and Seaboard, as well as Denmark's Danish Crown.
The order to release the reserves came from several Chinese government bodies including the Ministry of Commerce and the Agricultural Development Bank of China, the reserve management center said.
Companies interested in the online auction need to sign up with the center in advance and be vetted by the Commerce Ministry before Thursday. Each bidder can only buy up to 300 tons.
China Merchandise Reserve Management Center stores and manages China's central reserves of resources that the country considers strategically important, including frozen pork, live pigs, other frozen meat and sugar.
The Chinese pork market — the world's largest has been ravaged by an outbreak of African swine fever. China has lost more than 100 million pigs in the last year, either because of disease or because farmers don't want to restock pigs after they die.
The decline has driven pork prices up nearly 50% in the last year.
Pork is a staple of the Chinese diet, and the decision to boost supplies comes as the country prepares to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China early next month. Releases from the reserves are often timed to coincide with major festivals.
At least four Chinese cities or provinces that are home to roughly 130 million people have already released some of their local reserves of frozen pig meat in the past few weeks. But Thursday will be the first time since January that China's central government has tapped into its reserves.
Using government reserves is not the only way China is dealing with the worsening pork crisis.
Officials have handed out subsidies worth about 3.2 billion yuan ($452 million) to low-income families who may struggle to afford pork at current prices.
Chinese authorities have also asked local governments to free up money that could be used for artificial insemination technology, a way to encourage farmers and producers to breed more hogs.
 
now I read
China's corporate social credit system creates level playing field for businesses
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/8/28 19:58:40
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now
China pushing ahead with controversial corporate social credit rating system for 33 million firms
  • National Reform and Development Commission has completed its initial assessments, which will be used to label firms excellent, good, fair or poor
  • Foreign firms fear they will be targeted in the event of a trade dispute or to give domestic firms a commercial advantage
Updated: 10:31pm, 17 Sep, 2019
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China is moving forward rapidly its plans for a controversial social credit rating system that will include 33 million companies, raising fears of reprisals among foreign firms as Beijing seeks to extend its control over the business environment in the country.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is pushing ahead with
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of all commercial entities from large firms to small, independently owned and operated business, prompting complaints over corporate privacy and heavy handed government intervention.

The social credit rating will include court rulings, tax records, environmental protection issues, government licensing, product quality, work safety, and administrative punishments by market regulators.

Advocates argue that it will help create better corporate citizens, but critics say that it will give greater latitude to local officials to target certain firms.

In a circular released on Monday, the NDRC said it had completed its initial assessment of the credit results, which will now be sent back to local authorities for further checks and updates.

Firms will be labelled as having excellent, good, fair or a poor credit rating, with the initial assessment used as “basic proof” to allow the government to conduct varying degrees of supervision. For any business deemed to have a poor credit history, the management will be called in by local officials for a detailed review, which will include plans to correct the problems.

The NDRC has already completed its assessment of travel service companies, coal mining firms, long-distance bus providers, natural gas suppliers and home services.

According to the assessment of the coal sector published in April, only 98 of over 19,000 firms were rated as excellent, while 1,868 were labelled as having poor social credit ratings. Some 204 natural gas suppliers were rated as poor after they appeared on the lists of the Supreme Court or the State Administration of Market Regulation for violating laws or regulations.

The NDRC did not elaborate on the business credit rating methodology, but said that it will solicit public feedback before the end of October.

It is generally believed that all the China registered firms and individuals will be eventually covered when the system is officially launched at the end of 2020, although the NDRC did not specify how many foreign or private firms were included in the current assessment.

The social credit system is highly controversial as the current monthly release of the social credit blacklist has barred tens of thousands individuals from taking trips on
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The new system has also created major discomfort for foreign firms, who are afraid that it could be used as a weapon during international trade disputes or to give domestic firms an advantage.

These worries have intensified given that China is now compiling an unreliable entity list to sanction foreign firms who hurt Chinese companies for non-commercial reasons. This is in response to sanctions from the United States against Chinese telecommunications equipment giant Huawei, with
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under investigation over a case where a gun was found in a parcel.

In a report published late last month, the European Chamber of Commerce in China warned that data collected under the corporate social credit system could be turned into a weapon to target foreign firms.

“Is it possible to use it as such? Sure. It’s a very powerful regulatory tool. If the government decides to do so, it can also be used in that manner,” said Björn Conrad, chief executive of Sinolytics, an independent research firm that worked on the report.

Chamber president Jorg Wuttke said there were concerns that the submission of sensitive data could put firms’ intellectual property at risk – a long-standing grievance in China by both US and European businesses.

“For example, particularly with banks, insurance and health care companies, to what extent can you disclose information to the local government?” he said.

Lian Weiliang, deputy chairman of the NDRC, said that the assessment would not used directly for punishment, instead, punishments would be meted out in accordance with joint memorandums by different government agencies that follows a “strict procedure”.

There are more than 50 such joint memorandums that stipulate both incentives and punishments in different sectors, Lian confirmed.

“All the existing credit incentive and punishment measures listed in the memorandums are based on laws and regulations,” he said.

“For severe violations, especially those endangering life and property, harsh punishment will be adopted, such as a temporary or even permanent ban on market entry.”

Chen Hongwan, director general of the NDRC’s fiscal and financial affairs department, said the social credit system was intended to profile the status of enterprises to facilitate government supervision.

“Internet and big data technology will be used effectively to aggregate all kinds of information. It will set up a risk warning mechanism to prevent the emergence of cross-sector and cross-region risks,” he was quoted as saying in the August issue of China Credit magazine.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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Vietnam Becomes a Victim of Its Own Success in Trade War

(Bloomberg) -- Follow Bloomberg on LINE messenger for all the business news and analysis you need.

Vietnam is finding it’s hard to win a trade war even when businesses are trying to hand you victories.

The Southeast Asian growth engine has a young and growing middle class, a horde of free-trade agreements, and a booming manufacturing industry. Businesses from Alphabet Inc.’s Google to Crate & Barrel Holdings Inc. are lining up to invest in the country as supply chains migrate from neighboring China, which served as the world’s factory for the better part of two decades.

But Vietnam is starting to see expectations outrun reality. More and more businesses are complaining about congested ports and roads, rocketing costs for land and labor, and regulations that aren’t being loosened fast enough. Tapestry Inc., owner of the Coach and Kate Spade brands, has lamented insufficient infrastructure investment that’s left some containers stalled on the waters. Eclat Textile Co., a supplier to Nike Inc., says it needs to diversify beyond Vietnam, including to cheaper locations.

If Vietnam isn’t able to fast-track progress in closing its infrastructure gap, it risks losing its “mini-China” status that has drawn so many of Bain & Co.’s toy-supplier clients there since 2015, said Gerry Mattios, Bain’s Singapore-based vice president. Costs could outweigh the benefits, sending producers to the likes of Sri Lanka or Cambodia, he said.

For now, the money keeps rolling in. Total disbursed foreign direct investment rose 6.3% to $12 billion in the first eight months of the year from the same period in 2018, according to government figures, with the number of new registered projects surging 25% to 2,406.

Here’s what’s at stake across capacity categories as Vietnam tries to lock in those trade-war wins:

Port Congestion

Infrastructure is the big challenge for Vietnam, especially at its ports. China claims six of the top 10 ports by container traffic in the world -- including Shanghai at No. 1 -- while Vietnam’s two biggest ports, Ho Chi Minh Seaport and Cai Mep, rank No. 25 and No. 50, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Vietnam’s share of global container traffic was just 2.5% in 2017 versus 40% for China. Shipping container capacity will need to grow at almost twice its 10%-12% pace of the past decade, as well as fold in third-party logistics and freight-forwarding practices to keep up with new demand, BI research shows.

What Our Analysts Say

“President Donald Trump tweeting Vietnam as a candidate for a manufacturing shift from China would require a long, drawn-out process. Vietnam lacks maritime infrastructure, large container ports and a shipping network needed for rapid export-capacity growth. It’s unlikely to match China’s deeply entrenched trade apparatus for several years.”

Click here to read the full report.

--Lee Klaskow, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Industry Analyst & Chris Muckensturm, Bloomberg Intelligence Associate Analyst

The government estimates it would cost about 80-100 trillion dong ($3.44-$4.31 billion) to develop its ports. Big-figure deals -- around new ports or revamping of old ones -- have yet to come to fruition.

Congestion at the ports often means rising inventory costs and less diverse production lines that are limited to non time-sensitive goods, according to the BI analysis. What would help: massive investments for warehouses, seaports, rail terminals, and inland container depots, for starters. BI also recommends a national or quasi-national container shipping company in order to support large-scale cross-border trade.

Demand is certainly growing. More than 530 million tons of cargo were shipped through Vietnam seaports last year, up 20% from a year earlier, according to the Vietnam Maritime Administration’s website. The volume of exported goods handled rose 15% to 142.8 million tons. And 18.1 million TEU of containers were transported last year, up 26% from the previous year.

“With the current situation, Vietnam for sure cannot meet the demand of a wave of companies if they move in,” Tsai Wen Jui, chairman of Taiwan-based bicycle saddle manufacturer DDK Group, said in an interview at their Binh Duong office. Even if 5% of Taiwan’s companies in China relocated to Vietnam, the infrastructure would be overwhelmed, he said.


DDK Group has a joint venture with Warburg Pincus-backed Becamex IDC to manage a 200-acre section of the industrial park in Binh Duong province only for Taiwanese companies. While Tsai said he’s pleased with the quality of the roads inside the park, he bemoans the lack of a highway to deal with traffic that keeps getting more congested.

Property Prices

Land prices also are a constraint, said Tsai. The land costs in Bau Bang industrial park have doubled to $80 per square meter from three years ago. The price at some parks in Binh Duong province has increased to $150 per square meter from $65 in 2016, Tsai added.

It’s not just Binh Duong that’s seeing some property fever. Rental prices for industrial property rose by double digits year-on-year in the first half of 2019 for several provinces, including 54.6% in Binh Duong and 31.1% in Tay Ninh, northwest of Ho Chi Minh City. In Hai Duong, east of Hanoi, prices were up 29.4%, according to data compiled by real estate service provider Savills Plc. Occupancy in these areas has also soared, led by a 63.6% growth rate in Tay Ninh province, the data show.

Residential costs have increased in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, with the former seeing a 20% price jump for condominiums in the second quarter from the previous year, and the latter experiencing a 4% jump on the primary market over the same period.

Regulation, Bureaucracy

Vietnam has made strides in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business gauge and the World Economic Forum’s Competitiveness Index. The business-friendly reputation has been helped by investment reforms, privatization of state-owned entities, and free-trade policies.

Businesses counter that there’s still a way to go to root out corruption, and bureaucratic networks can be tough for outsiders to crack.

Vietnam scored a 33 on a scale of 0 to 100, with 0 being “highly corrupt” and 100 being “very clean,” in Transparency International’s annual corruption index in 2018. That was little changed from 2015, reflecting slow progress in combating government bribery despite a recent crackdown on corruption, according to the group.

Labor Force

The demographics are on Vietnam’s side. The share of the population that’s working-age, or 15 to 64 years old, is set to remain larger than the averages across Asia and worldwide through 2025, according to data from the United Nations Population Division. And the government has expressed an appetite to up-skill its workers, from its schools to the factory floors.

But it’s hard for Vietnam to supply high-qualified labor for technology companies moving in even as training efforts get a boost, Huang Yung Cheng, chairman of the Council of Taiwanese Chambers of Commerce in Bac Ninh province, said in an interview. And overt corruption remains a worry for business.

Taiwanese companies said they need 20% to 30% more workers to meet production goals, according to minutes of an Aug. 21 meeting between those companies and Binh Duong officials posted to a government website. The fight over talent has meant higher labor costs, with wages for candidates with Mandarin proficiency rising about 60% year-on-year in Binh Duong.

More broadly, Vietnam’s minimum wages in 2018 at $180 a month were much cheaper than in Thailand ($274) and competitive with Cambodia ($170), according to Suan Teck Kin and Manop Udomkerdmongkol, analysts at United Overseas Bank. Cambodia’s minimum wage already has risen to $182 at the start of 2019, with talk of further increases as soon as next month.

Vietnam “can’t come close to matching mainland China’s critical mass of workers, consumers and/or infrastructure,” Sean King, senior vice president at Park Strategies LLC, said in an e-mail. “What’s more, Vietnamese productivity rates are 25%-30% lower than PRC rates. In short, there’s only one mainland China.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Michelle Jamrisko in Singapore at [email protected];Nguyen Xuan Quynh in Hanoi at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at [email protected];John Boudreau at [email protected]
 
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