Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Mr T

Senior Member
Given that the sum of all those purchases is easily in the tens of billions of dollars (and that's excluding ludicrous pipe dreams like the Kidd DDG replacements and proposed VTOL fighter jet), it'll eat out any realistic increase, and then some.

Taiwan doesn't do 5 year plans like China. We don't know what the budget will be next year or the year after, so there's no point speculating. But as I said, Taiwan can defer payments on less important purchases like the tanks and have them delivered later. There's probably also some slack in the budget in recent years because most of the Bush arms sales have gone through and Obama dragged his feet during his second term in office..

The debt ceiling is about 40% of GDP, and as of last year, total debt was 35% of GDP.

So? South Korea's is over 36% of GDP. China's debt is over 50% of GDP. Hell, Japan's is over 250%, and they find money for extra defence spending to support a large and modern navy, along with a decent airforce (and modest ground forces).

To stop the Cross Straits military imbalance from declining even more precipitously, Taipei needs to spend at least 5-6% of GDP on military. Money which they don't have.

That's nonsense. Such a figure would be over $30 billion, way more than Taiwan needs. Besides, a military comparison between China and Taiwan isn't helpful, because in case of war the two countries' forces aren't going to meet on an open plain and charge each other.
 
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Yesterday at 10:07 PM
29 minutes ago
related:
US Tells Congress of Plans to Sell F-16 Fighters to Taiwan
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and
Trump administration to go ahead with US$8 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan, angering China
  • Republican Senator Marco Rubio calls the proposed deal ‘an important step in support of Taiwan’s self-defence efforts’
  • Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman warns ‘the US will have to bear all the consequences’ for its bold move
Updated: 4:24am, 17 Aug, 2019
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The Trump administration is pushing ahead with a US$8 billion sale of 66 F-16 fighter aircraft to Taiwan, a move expected to add further tension to already strained relations between Beijing and Washington, according to two influential senators.

Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida praised the administration for advancing the deal, which he said in a statement was “an important step in support of Taiwan’s self-defence efforts”.

“As the Chinese government and Communist Party seeks to extend its authoritarian reach in the region, it is critical that the United States continue to enhance our strategic relationship with our democratic partner Taiwan through regular and consistent support,” said Rubio, a member of the Senate foreign relations and intelligence committees.

This statement was echoed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who praised President Donald Trump for helping to bolster US and Taiwanese security with the proposed sale.

“With China building up its military to threaten us and our allies – and the People’s Liberation Army aiming thousands of missiles at Taiwan and deploying fighter aircraft along the Taiwan [Strait] – now more than ever it is critical that Taiwan has the support needed to defend itself,” Cruz said, commending Trump for acting “decisively” to advance the transfer.

In fact, Trump has not appeared particularly decisive on the high-profile deal, which would be the first such sale of fighter jets since 1992, assuming Congressional approval.

The months of slow walking since the deal was outlined early this year saw lawmakers and defence experts surmise that Trump was using the pact as leverage to secure a better trade agreement with Beijing in the countries’ massive trade war.

A State Department spokesman said: “We are aware of media reports regarding a possible sale of F-16 fighter aircraft to Taiwan. The department does not comment on proposed defence sales until they are formally notified to Congress.”

Beijing strongly opposes arms deals with Taiwan, which it considers a renegade province, even though the US is obliged to defend the self-governing island under the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act, which turned 40 this year.

Beijing quickly registered its strong displeasure to the proposed contract involving the 66 Lockheed Martin F-16 Viper aircraft, which follows a US$2 billion agreement for 108 Abrams tanks and support equipment approved in July.

“China urges the US to fully recognise the highly sensitive and harmful nature of the relevant issue, abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, refrain from selling F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan and stop arms sales to and military contact with Taiwan,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in a press briefing.

“Otherwise, the Chinese side will surely make strong reactions, and the US will have to bear all the consequences,” she said, without being specific.

The wording in the 1979 Taiwan act is suitably vague and recent administrations have stopped short until now of allowing Taipei to buy new fighter jets.

Rubio urged the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and House Foreign Affairs Committee to quickly advance this “critical” arms sale.

According to a spokeswoman in Rubio’s office, the administration has informally notified both committees of the proposed transaction, giving them by tradition up to 30 days to raise concerns and suggest changes.

The administration then formally sends the arms package to Congress, which only needs to vote on it if someone raises an objection and files a joint resolution of disapproval.

But few in Washington see much resistance to the deal, and Congress could receive the full package within days or weeks rather than waiting the full month.

Growing concern over China’s actions and motives – including its military expansion in the South China Sea, espionage, perceived unfair trading, intellectual property theft and the Hong Kong stand-off – have made tough China policies among the few issues that Democrats and Republicans agree on in deeply polarised Washington.

“The train is certainly on the track,” said someone close to the deal. “It’s partially out of the station, if not totally.”

Military experts say the new variant of the F-16 that Taiwan would receive, the Viper, can carry a wide range of short- and medium-range air-to-air missiles and is better able to counter the threat of an air strike from mainland China’s fourth generation aircraft like the Su-35 and J-10.

While China is expected to show its displeasure over the agreement in some tangible way, analysts said, they do not expect the fallout to be huge.

“This sale will not have a decisive, enduring impact on US-China relations,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Relatively modest acts of retribution that Beijing could take in response to the deal – in part aimed at appeasing nationalistic Chinese – might include cancelling some contracts for US companies, adding firms to its threatened “unreliable entities” list of firms or individuals deemed a threat to China and stepping up audits, said Kelsey Broderick, China analyst with the Eurasia Group.

Glaser added that she does not expect the arms package to be of huge benefit for Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in her January re-election bid, given that many Taiwanese voters are rather blasé about arms sales.

Analysts said the timing of Trump’s decision to go ahead with the F-16 deal reflected a number of issues, including a desire to tout jobs and Tsai’s recent stopovers in the US.

Presidential impatience over the slow pace of progress on a US-China trade deal also may have played a part, some analysts said, as Beijing has hardened its stance and become increasingly unwilling to resume large purchases from US farmers, a key constituency for Trump’s 2020 re-election bid.

Over the past year, the two sides have slapped hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of tariffs on each other’s goods, sending jitters through global markets.

“Trump likes to pile on the pressure when he’s not getting his way,” Broderick said, adding that she is not convinced the US leader is a big believer in Taiwan or Hong Kong democracy, but welcomes the possible leverage.

“He doesn’t see a strong path forward on trade and is frustrated by the slow pace,” she said. “So he decided: OK, let’s take some action.”
 

Skywatcher

Captain
Taiwan doesn't do 5 year plans like China. We don't know what the budget will be next year or the year after, so there's no point speculating. But as I said, Taiwan can defer payments on less important purchases like the tanks and have them delivered later. There's probably also some slack in the budget in recent years because most of the Bush arms sales have gone through and Obama dragged his feet during his second term in office..
They still have to pay tens of billions in the 2020s.



So? South Korea's is over 36% of GDP. China's debt is over 50% of GDP. Hell, Japan's is over 250%, and they find money for extra defence spending to support a large and modern navy, along with a decent airforce (and modest ground forces).
South Korea actually has a conventional military advantage over North Korea, and they actually have a serious defense budget and conscription, so their budgetary worries are about future social spending.

China and Japan are $15 trillion and $5 trillion economies, that kind of market setting size allows them to get away with all sorts of fiscal anomalies that someone with a GDP of $500 billion can't.

Now to raise the defense budget to an Israel level of 5-6%, Taipei will run a new deficit of about 3% annually (unless they raise taxes to that amount, but with high income inequality that's unlikely, since the rich can lobby away taxes and taxing the middle class and poor more would be electoral suicide). Let's assume that social spending increases will result in another deficit of 2-3% of GDP. An annual deficit of 5-6% will result in a national debt of 90+% after ten years. That level of debt will cause Taiwan bond rates to rise significantly from the current 0.64%. Any sort of shock would send rates spiking even further.

That's nonsense. Such a figure would be over $30 billion, way more than Taiwan needs. Besides, a military comparison between China and Taiwan isn't helpful, because in case of war the two countries' forces aren't going to meet on an open plain and charge each other.

No, that's the minimum they should be spending. Now the ROC Armed Forces have a desired end strength of 175,000-190,000 in a professionalized force. Generally, for a professionalized military, you spend about twice the GDP per capita on personnel costs, so they should be spending about 1.5-2% of GDP on personnel costs alone. Now operations and maintenance will tack on about the same amount or slightly more, and procurement and R&D will likely add at about the same amount.
 

Brumby

Major
So? South Korea's is over 36% of GDP. China's debt is over 50% of GDP. Hell, Japan's is over 250%, and they find money for extra defence spending to support a large and modern navy, along with a decent airforce (and modest ground forces).

China's debt load is actually over 300 % of GDP. You just have to google as it made headlines this year
 

Skywatcher

Captain
China's debt load is actually over 300 % of GDP. You just have to google as it made headlines this year
Umm, if you bothered to read the posts, we're talking about national government debt load.

That 250-280% would be aggregate debt load, including national, local and private debt.

Unless one subscribes to a lunatic like Gordan Gutherie Chang (though I don't think even he's crazy/disingenuous enough to claim the 300% as national government liabilities).
 

Mr T

Senior Member
They still have to pay tens of billions in the 2020s.

If delivery for everything completes by 2029. Assuming that, you have to look at how much money is put aside to equipment purchasing.

I read a year or two ago it was 30%, which would be just under $4 billion a year, or nearly $40 over 10 years, which doesn't take account of future budget increases.

I can't find that article now, but I did find one from last year.

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That was 21% for indigenous weapon systems like the submarines, with a further 26% for "investment".

Either way that does suggest that Taiwan is putting aside serious money for both foreign purchases and domestic builds.

their budgetary worries are about future social spending

I don't think that South Korea's demographics are better than Taiwan's. In fact, both countries have very low birth rates and similar population pyramids.

China and Japan are $15 trillion and $5 trillion economies, that kind of market setting size allows them to get away with all sorts of fiscal anomalies that someone with a GDP of $500 billion can't.

Actually Japan's is largely based on the fact that Japanese companies and individuals hold most of the national debt. If they were paying gilt rates demanded by international investors they'd have been in big trouble, but that's not necessarily relevant to Taiwan.

Now to raise the defense budget to an Israel level of 5-6%

As I said, there's no reason to raise it to that sort of level, unless China has made it clear it will invade by the next set of national elections unless Taiwan unifies. If Taiwan has put asid
 

Skywatcher

Captain
If delivery for everything completes by 2029. Assuming that, you have to look at how much money is put aside to equipment purchasing.

I read a year or two ago it was 30%, which would be just under $4 billion a year, or nearly $40 over 10 years, which doesn't take account of future budget increases.

I can't find that article now, but I did find one from last year.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


That was 21% for indigenous weapon systems like the submarines, with a further 26% for "investment".

Either way that does suggest that Taiwan is putting aside serious money for both foreign purchases and domestic builds.
Then where's the operations and maintenance (O&M) and personnel money going to come from? The Taiwanese public doesn't have the stomach for conscription or high taxes, apparently.


I don't think that South Korea's demographics are better than Taiwan's. In fact, both countries have very low birth rates and similar population pyramids.
My point exactly. Seoul only needs to realistically worry about rising social spending costs. Taipei has to worry about both increasing investment demands in social spending, and military needs.

Actually Japan's is largely based on the fact that Japanese companies and individuals hold most of the national debt. If they were paying gilt rates demanded by international investors they'd have been in big trouble, but that's not necessarily relevant to Taiwan.
The reason China and Japan can rely on domestic debt is because their size insulates them to a degree from political risks and other things that raises interest rates.
Taipei can't go asking for those low interest rates, not without being laughed off the market.


As I said, there's no reason to raise it to that sort of level, unless China has made it clear it will invade by the next set of national elections unless Taiwan unifies. If Taiwan has put asid
If they want to have a professional military any meaningful size, it has to be 5-6%, otherwise its a bunch of hot air, and everyone from Beijing to DC knows.

They could get away at 3-4% like Singapore and South Korea, but the Taipei needs to start conscripting again.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
Then where's the operations and maintenance (O&M) and personnel money going to come from?

Presumably the rest (53%) of the budget. A professional army is more expensive than a conscript one, but the size of the Taiwanese forces has shrunk significantly with the end of conscription.

My point exactly. Seoul only needs to realistically worry about rising social spending costs. Taipei has to worry about both increasing investment demands in social spending, and military needs.

Not really. South Korea had to worry about North Korea's WMD and dealing with the large number of conventional rockets and artillery it can use to attack civlian targets. Plus there's increased worry about China, Russia and Japan (although the latter is more through misplaced nationalism).

Taipei can't go asking for those low interest rates, not without being laughed off the market.

If Taiwanese held the vast majority of the debt the government would find it easier to dictate gilt prices, but that wasn't the point I was making.

They could get away at 3-4% like Singapore and South Korea

Err, Singapore and SK only spend just over 2.5% of GDP. It's not 3-4% for sure. Don't get me wrong, I think that Taiwan should also boost defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, which is easily sustainable. But the current increases are sufficient for the moment.

If they want to have a professional military any meaningful size, it has to be 5-6%, otherwise its a bunch of hot air, and everyone from Beijing to DC knows.

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
China's debt load is actually over 300 % of GDP. You just have to google as it made headlines this year
It depends on what kind of debt you're talking about. Chinese debt is primarily domestic and the comparative figure for the 304% figure is comparative to a world average of 320% with the USA at about 350% I think. But that total debt composition is different as Chinese external debt (debt owned to foreign countries) is only some 15% of GDP, which is incredibly low compared to most developed countries (including the USA) which have external debt at some 100-300% GDP.
 

Skywatcher

Captain
Presumably the rest (53%) of the budget. A professional army is more expensive than a conscript one, but the size of the Taiwanese forces has shrunk significantly with the end of conscription.
To pay for a professional military, you generally need to spend about 150-200% of GDP per capita per person. With a desired end strength of 170,000-190,000, that's going to be about 2% of GDP in personnel costs. And then there's operations.

Not really. South Korea had to worry about North Korea's WMD and dealing with the large number of conventional rockets and artillery it can use to attack civlian targets. Plus there's increased worry about China, Russia and Japan (although the latter is more through misplaced nationalism).
That's an asymmetric threat. Taipei faces a boarder threat.
 
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