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Apr 16, 2019
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Trump OK’s F-16 sale to Taiwan amid China tensions
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US Tells Congress of Plans to Sell F-16 Fighters to Taiwan
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The Trump administration has informed Congress it plans to sell
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fighters worth $8 billion to Taiwan in a move that will inflame already high tensions with China.

Two U.S. officials and a congressional aide say the administration informally notified lawmakers of the proposed sale late on Thursday. They were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The F-16 deal is highly controversial because China fiercely opposes all arms sales to Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province, but has specifically objected to advanced fighter jets. The notification also comes as U.S. trade talks with China are stalled and amid unrest in Hong Kong that many fear could prompt Beijing to move militarily against the former British colony.

The State Department, which would ultimately authorize the sale, declined to comment, but members of Congress from both parties welcomed the proposal.

The chairman and ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Reps. Eliot Engel, D-N.Y., and Michael McCaul, R-Tex., said in a joint statement that it "sends a strong message about the U.S. commitment to security and democracy in the Indo-Pacific" and "will help deter China as they threaten our strategic partner Taiwan and its democratic system of government."

"With China building up its military to threaten us and our allies, and the People's Liberation Army aiming thousands of missiles at Taiwan and deploying fighter aircrafts along the Taiwan Strait, now more than ever it is critical that Taiwan has the support needed to defend itself," said Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The informal notification starts a period of consultations with Congress and a formal announcement of the sale could be made as early as next month unless lawmakers object.

Just this week, America's top representative in Taiwan said Washington expects the island to continue increasing its defense spending as Chinese security threats to the U.S. ally continue to grow. W. Brent Christensen said the U.S. had "not only observed Taiwan's enthusiasm to pursue necessary platforms to ensure its self-defense, but also its evolving tenacity to develop its own indigenous defense industry."

That was a nod to President Tsai Ing-wen's drive to develop domestic training jets, submarines and other weapons technology, supplementing arms bought from the U.S.

Christensen is the director of the American Institute in Taiwan, which has served as the de facto U.S. Embassy in Taiwan since formal diplomatic relations were cut in 1979.

While China and Taiwan split during a civil war in 1949, Beijing still considers Taiwan Chinese territory and has increased its threats to annex the self-governing democracy by force if necessary.

Despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties, U.S. law requires Washington to ensure Taiwan has the means to defend itself.

Since 2008, U.S. administrations have notified Congress of more than $24 billion in foreign military sales to Taiwan, including in the past two months the sale of 108
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and 250 Stinger missiles, valued at $2.2 billion, Christensen said. The Trump administration alone has notified Congress of $4.4 billion in arms sales to Taiwan.

China has responded furiously to all such sales and recently announced it would impose sanctions on any U.S. enterprises involved in such deals, saying they undermine China's sovereignty and national security.

Tsai has adamantly rejected Chinese pressure to reunite Taiwan and China under the "one-country, two-systems" framework that governs Hong Kong. She and many Taiwanese have said that the people of the island stand with the young people of Hong Kong who are fighting for democratic freedoms in ongoing protests.

Beijing has cut contacts with Tsai's government over Tsai's refusal to endorse its claim that Taiwan is a part of China and sought to increase Taiwan's international isolation by reducing its number of diplomatic allies to just 17.China has also stepped up efforts at military intimidation, holding military exercises across the Taiwan Strait and circling the island with bombers and fighters in what are officially termed training missions.
 

Skywatcher

Captain
Wait, for just $8 billion?!

Given that Morocco is paying $3.787 billion for 25, 66 Block 70s should be $10 billion. I wonder if Taipei skimped on either the spare parts, the logistics package, or othe munitions?

Someone should tell Tsai that it's actually more expensive when you buy parts of the package separately, whether it's fighter jets or an home AV system.

At least it doesn't look like Taipei was dumb enough to actually try to assemble the F-16s themselves, so ROC military procurement hasn't gone full lunatic yet.
 

Skywatcher

Captain
It isn't the dollar value that's important, rather that the Taiwanese government is increasing the defence budget over inflation. One of the criticisms that's been made for a decade or more is that Taiwan has called for the US to authorise arms sales but not budgeted enough money to pay for them promptly - or requiring money to be cut from elsewhere in the defence budget. An 8% increase is significant for Taiwan because it starts to give a cushion of money to pay for foreign arms purchases, without needing to hold up domestic projects that Taiwan needs.

In other news, maybe the F-16 is going through now. I'm not sure what an "informal review" is. The DSCA notification process is fairly formal, although Congress' review is fairly routine and uncontroversial. I guess we'll find out fairly soon.

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8% is still a bad joke, given how all the new projects and buys out there, like the F-16 purchase (apparently they decided to defer the spares, munitions or support), the Abrams tanks, the submarines, various cruise missiles (that Yun Feng boondoggle comes to mind), sundry naval surface ships...

Taipei obviously can't sustain 5-10% increases, due to its debt ceiling and looming pension/social service crunches.
 

Pika

Junior Member
Registered Member
Someone explain to me why China makes issue of Taiwan receiving new fighters. Surely current PLAAF and PLAN can handle Taiwan's forces in any hypothetical conflict. Are the 200+ Block 70 F-16s that of big game changer?
 

Skywatcher

Captain
Someone explain to me why China makes issue of Taiwan receiving new fighters. Surely current PLAAF and PLAN can handle Taiwan's forces in any hypothetical conflict. Are the 200+ Block 70 F-16s that of big game changer?
The principle of it more or less.

Besides, if Beijing makes such a fuss over a couple squadrons of fourth generation fighters, it makes Washington DC think very hard about what the response will be to a qualitative upgrade like F-35s or THAAD?
 

Pika

Junior Member
Registered Member
The principle of it more or less.

Besides, if Beijing makes such a fuss over a couple squadrons of fourth generation fighters, it makes Washington DC think very hard about what the response will be to a qualitative upgrade like F-35s or THAAD?

Eventually down the line, I can see Taiwan getting the F-35 (but that's decades down the line)

But besides principle, are these F-16 Block 70, a game changer?
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Eventually down the line, I can see Taiwan getting the F-35 (but that's decades down the line)

But besides principle, are these F-16 Block 70, a game changer?
Been discussed to death many many pages ago. PLA artillery are gonna crater all of ROC's air bases in the opening minutes of conflict anyway. Whatever manages to get off the ground will resemble panicked flies rather than any coherent and intelligent military force. RAND studies concur. It's the principle of America meddling in Chinese domestic affairs.
 

Skywatcher

Captain
Eventually down the line, I can see Taiwan getting the F-35 (but that's decades down the line)

But besides principle, are these F-16 Block 70, a game changer?
Nope, the F-16 Block 70s aren't game changers by any means.

If Taipei gets F-35, it'll most likely be post 2035, assuming there still is a ROCAF by then (and China will probably have something sixth generation flying by then).
 

Mr T

Senior Member
But besides principle, are these F-16 Block 70, a game changer?

No. They clearly don't leap-frog PLAAF technology. But they're still very useful for Taiwan because they replace the F-5s (obsolete except for reconnaissance) and Mirages (need a serious upgrade, but France would charge a lot). That keeps the ROCAF as a viable force instead of shrinking to just the upgraded IDFs and F-16s. Having new F-16s also means they can be worked a little harder than the upgraded F-16s.

8% is still a bad joke, given how all the new projects and buys out there, like the F-16 purchase (apparently they decided to defer the spares, munitions or support), the Abrams tanks, the submarines, various cruise missiles (that Yun Feng boondoggle comes to mind), sundry naval surface ships

Eh, it's not bad. Taiwan's managed to string out purchases over a number of years in the past. Besides, the US doesn't require Taiwan to buy everything within a short period of time. The Abrams might be delivered towards the back end of the 2020s for all we know.

Taipei obviously can't sustain 5-10% increases, due to its debt ceiling and looming pension/social service crunches.

Nah, it's more down to political priorities. Defence spending has hovered around 2% of GDP for ages. That's very sustainable. The budget deficit is also low, so there's headroom for more defence spending.
 
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Skywatcher

Captain
Eh, it's not bad. Taiwan's managed to string out purchases over a number of years in the past. Besides, the US doesn't require Taiwan to buy everything within a short period of time. The Abrams might be delivered towards the back end of the 2020s for all we know.
Given that the sum of all those purchases is easily in the tens of billions of dollars (and that's excluding ludicrous pipe dreams like the Kidd DDG replacements and proposed VTOL fighter jet), it'll eat out any realistic increase, and then some.


Nah, it's more down to political priorities. Defence spending has hovered around 2% of GDP for ages. That's very sustainable. The budget deficit is also low, so there's headroom for more defence spending.
The debt ceiling is about 40% of GDP, and as of last year, total debt was 35% of GDP. With Taiwan's coming working age population implosion, social spending is going to go through the roof, which will more than eat up that 5% difference between current debt and the debt ceiling.

To stop the Cross Straits military imbalance from declining even more precipitously, Taipei needs to spend at least 5-6% of GDP on military. Money which they don't have.
 
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