Chinese Economics Thread

Zool

Junior Member
China may have maintained consistent and significant GDP growth over and above India's own actual numbers, according to Arvind Subramanian, former Chief Economic Adviser for the Indian Government:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

July 25

NEW DELHI — It was not the kind of news a freshly reelected government likes to hear.

Days after Narendra Modi was sworn in for a second term as India’s prime minister, industry data showed that sales of passenger vehicles experienced
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in May. The next month’s figures were almost as bad, indicating
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in the number of cars sold nationwide compared with a year earlier.

The nosedive in the auto industry feeds into a growing set of worries about India’s economic trajectory. In recent years, India’s official figures for gross domestic product showed the country to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Now the economy is undeniably losing speed, and the key uncertainty is how long the softer pace of growth will last.

What’s more, some economists are questioning whether India truly deserved the title of the globe’s fastest-growing major economy in the first place — and those questions are coming straight from the top.

In June, Arvind Subramanian, who stepped down as the government’s chief economic adviser last year, released
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
India’s GDP growth was considerably slower than the official figures showed from 2012 to 2017. The government
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Still, all of this adds up to a major policy challenge for the Modi government. For it to achieve its goal of turning India into a $5 trillion economy by 2024, the economy must expand significantly faster than it is growing today. Rapid economic growth is also crucial if India is to generate
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
eradicate extreme poverty and achieve Modi’s aim of turning India into a major player on the world stage.

The ripples of unease about the accuracy of the official figures make the task even trickier. If the “government itself is formulating policies based on growth numbers that may not be correct, then you are setting yourself up for making the wrong policy choices,” said Jahangir Aziz, head of emerging market economics at JPMorgan Chase.

The predicament of the auto industry is a prime example of the effect of slower growth. Some manufacturers have announced
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
of their production lines because there is not enough demand for their vehicles.

“It’s very bad,” said Sugato Sen, deputy director general of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. He said the only period he could remember when the business experienced a similarly prolonged slump came in 2001.

Regulatory changes have increased the cost of cars, and a credit squeeze has affected nontraditional lenders extending auto loans. But fundamentally, Sen said, the decline in sales is a question of sentiment. The sector “depends very significantly on how people feel,” he said. “When the economy grows, the industry does well, but when the growth rate falls below a certain level, that impacts the industry very, very significantly.”

In the fiscal year that ended in March, India’s GDP growth
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, the lowest rate in five years. In the most recent quarter, the annual growth rate was just 5.8 percent, the first time the country’s quarterly economic growth
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
China’s
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

India’s challenge is an echo of what developing economies around the world are facing as a widening trade war initiated by the United States depresses sentiment and investment. India’s state-owned banks are also burdened by corporate loans gone sour, which has made them more reluctant to lend.

Some economists see India’s slowing growth as a temporary phenomenon. They say output will re-accelerate as measures to kick-start economic activity — such as lowering interest rates — gain traction. “Growth is slipping, but you need to look a little ahead,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, an Indian ratings firm owned by Standard & Poor’s. “I’m more positive on the, let’s say, five-year outlook than the current-year outlook.”

Others say the deceleration is partly the product of some of the Modi government’s policy choices in its first term. Such measures include the decision to implement a nationwide value-added tax (a step economists say is necessary in the long run) and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
most of the country’s bank notes (a step many economists say was disastrous).

Other experts contend that the malaise in the economy runs deeper and preceded the Modi government. Subramanian argued in a paper first released in June that India’s GDP growth figures from 2012 to 2017 do not correspond with some of the underlying economic indicators.

According to the official figures, “India somehow sustained an economic boom in an environment with substantially lower investment, profits, exports, credit financing, and probably consumption,” Subramanian wrote in
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. “That leaves us with a deep puzzle.”

By his calculations, rather than expanding at a rate of 7 percent per year, India’s economy probably expanded at closer to 4.5 percent per year after 2011 — an economy growing
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Subramanian’s piece set off
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. A council of economists who advise Modi
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and said it “lacks rigor.” Rakesh Mohan,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
expressed doubts about Subramanian’s methodology and questioned his decision to go public with a detailed analysis.

“You should be telling the truth, but in what fashion?” said Mohan.


If Subramanian’s conclusions are correct, then “any company, any investor” would have to rethink its expectations of India’s economy.

Whats really interesting, and I'm sure extremely concerning for the Indian Government regarding confidence in the Indian economy, is that this is not just a former senior economics official making off the cuff remarks. He actually conducted an in-depth review of Indian economic growth and what he determined to be the real GDP figures.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Trump warns China may delay trade agreement to after US election
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!




Rest of the article just mentions how people want him to resolve the trade war.

Oh my goodness, that's hilarious! He's basically trying to create suspense in the American public to see what China would do with a second term Trump and pushing the responsibility to the voters, that if he can't get China to sign his deals, it's the voters' fault for not giving him a second term! Obviously, if he does get a second term, he'll just make up more excuses from there for why he still can't get China to sign.

It also shows that China's indifference at this point requires him to preemptively mentally prepare the American people for a no-deal so they don't dump an avalanche of criticism on him when he can't get Xi to budge in the upcoming few months.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Oh my goodness, that's hilarious! He's basically trying to create suspense in the American public to see what China would do with a second term Trump and pushing the responsibility to the voters, that if he can't get China to sign his deals, it's the voters' fault for not giving him a second term! Obviously, if he does get a second term, he'll just make up more excuses from there for why he still can't get China to sign.

It also shows that China's indifference at this point requires him to preemptively mentally prepare the American people for a no-deal so they don't dump an avalanche of criticism on him when he can't get Xi to budge in the upcoming few months.
Pretty much nailed it man.
 
now I read (in fact was surprised by this press release)
Progress made in Chinese enterprises' purchase of U.S. agricultural produce
Xinhua| 2019-07-28 19:05:56
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Millions of tonnes of American soy beans have been shipped out to China, the latest progress in the purchase of U.S. agricultural products by Chinese enterprises after a June meeting of the two heads of state in Osaka, official sources said Sunday.
 

getready

Senior Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



It also approved soybean imports from all parts of Russia, the General Administration of Customs said in a separate statement on its website, having all but halted U.S. soy imports as the trade dispute between Beijing and Washington deepened.

China was the top buyer of U.S. soybeans until Beijing slapped a 25% tariff on shipments last year in response to U.S. tariffs on a range of Chinese products.
 
Today at 2:18 PM
now I read (in fact was surprised by this press release)
Progress made in Chinese enterprises' purchase of U.S. agricultural produce
Xinhua| 2019-07-28 19:05:56
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
related:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

·
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Millions of tonnes of American soy beans have been shipped out to China, the latest progress in the purchase of U.S. agricultural products by Chinese enterprises after a June meeting of the two heads of state in Osaka, official sources said Sunday.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
now I read
Economic Watch: China's new economy coming to the fore
Xinhua| 2019-07-29 19:56:10
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

At a residential community in Beijing on the western suburbs, several salespersons are touting their new services: with a click on their app, orders of fresh food will be delivered in as fast as 30 minutes from a neighboring warehouse.

The fresh food delivery service is the latest foray into the market made by Meituan Dianping, an online food delivery-to-ticketing services platform, as more and more Chinese tend to buy a growing basket of things online.

The company's expanding app-based services are part of China's burgeoning new economy, which features new industries and new forms and models of business that have become new growth drivers.

These new growth drivers contributed 16.1 percent to the country's GDP last year, up 0.3 percentage points from one year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

They grew 12.2 percent to 14.54 trillion yuan (about 2.11 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2018, 2.5 percentage points higher than the GDP growth.

Those in the tertiary industry were the largest contributors to GDP with a share of 8.5 percent, followed by the secondary industry.

China has economy-of-scale advantages on the internet and digital services thanks to its huge online population, with the service sector enjoying ample growth space, according to Lai Youwei, head of Meituan Research Institute.

Industrial data showed that China had about 829 million internet users by the end of 2018, with a penetration rate of 59.6 percent.

The new economy market players are growing fast. The latest Fortune China 500 list showed that revenue of the new economy sector including electronics and internet services expanded 29 percent year on year last year, outpacing the average growth of the listed firms.

The Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index reading, which tracks activities of over 140 emerging sectors, rose to 30 percent in June thanks to increases of capital input, up 2 percentage points from May, the highest since December 2018.

The State Council said earlier this month that China will foster new growth models of the platform economy, promote the development of the "internet plus service industry" and support social capital in going to sectors including medicare, education and tourism.

The business environment will be further optimized and the approval procedures for the establishment of new platform firms and their branches will be further streamlined, according to the State Council.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
There is not stopping of Huawei they pile up profit year after year via emperor. they increase market share at the expense of Apple , Vivo . Xiaomei. US and western market is irrelevant to the heath of the company

Huawei outsells smartphone rivals in China, tightens market grip amid U.S. spat
Sijia Jiang
3 MIN READ

HONG KONG (Reuters) - China’s Huawei Technologies cemented its dominance of the domestic smartphone market in the second quarter, with shipments and market share rising, as Chinese customers backed the embattled firm amid its trade fight with the United States.

Huawei, which was put on a trade blacklist by the United States since mid-May and was virtually barred from doing business there even earlier, shipped 37.3 million smartphones in China in the three months ended June, up 31% year-on-year, according to market research firm Canalys.

Its market share rose more than 10 percentage points to 38% in the quarter, even as all other top vendors lost ground in the world’s biggest smartphone market, the Canalys data showed.

Huawei was added by Washington to a so-called Entity List in May. The blacklisting has threatened to cut its access to essential U.S. components and software such as the Google Android apps.

The addition to the list “caused uncertainty overseas” but the firm has been shifting its focus towards its home market, where it invested in an aggressive offline expansion to lure consumers with a patriotic sales pitch, said Canalys analyst Mo Jia.

Calls to support Huawei have consistently surfaced on Chinese social media on comment threads trailing news on the company.

Kitty Fok, who tracks China’s smartphone sector at research firm IDC, said that consumers responded to the spat over Huawei with pro-China sentiment, which helped boost the brand’s already-strong appeal in the country.

“The product itself is already well-recognised, and the trade war helped people feel like they need to support Huawei. The only worry was that they might not get the component supply, but in the end, they did,” said Fok.

Huawei’s second-quarter smartphone shipments surged even as overall Chinese smartphone shipments shrank. Smartphone shipments in China declined by 6% in the quarter to 97.6 million units, the 9th consecutive quarterly fall, according to Canalys.

Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) and Apple Inc (AAPL.O), the top four vendors behind Huawei, saw declines in shipments and market share in the quarter, Canalys said.

The second-quarter China shipments represented 64% of Huawei’s total smartphone shipments in the quarter, it said.

“Clearly the international market is a risky one now, whereas in China, where the Android ecosystem is most mature, in terms of sales channels and software income, Huawei has clear advantage in price negotiation,” said Canalys analyst Jia.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Very easy to leave the Chinese market, very hard to get back in. Trump dealing long-term, possibly permanent damage to US agriculture.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Exclusive: China to inspect Argentine crushers, could unlock No. 1 soymeal market


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
•July 30, 2019
By Hugh Bronstein

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - A Chinese delegation is set to visit Argentina in August to inspect soymeal crushing plants, Argentine government and industry officials told Reuters, a key step as the South American country looks to open up exports of processed soy to the world's No. 1 consumer.

Global trade uncertainties - including pessimism about U.S.-China negotiations that start on Tuesday in Shanghai - has, however, strengthened Argentina's hand, grain traders said, prompting China to expand its soymeal import options.

"We will have a visit of Chinese officials as part of the process of pursuing the objective of exporting soybean meal to China," Santiago del Solar, chief of staff to Argentina's Agriculture Secretary, told Reuters.
He added Chinese customs inspectors would arrive on Aug. 18 for a two-week trip and visit crushing plants operated by eight firms including Bunge Ltd, Vicentin, Molinos Agro SA, Louis Dreyfus Corp, Cargill Inc.
China is the No. 1 buyer of Argentine soybeans but does not import any of its processed meal, which could be used to help feed the world's biggest hog heard as consumers in the country shift toward a diet of meal-fed pork and poultry.

"Argentina has spent 20 years trying to gain access to the Chinese soymeal market. In all that time, this is the first Chinese trade mission to Argentina specifically to discuss soymeal," Gustavo Idigoras, president of Argentina's CIARA-CEC chamber of grains exporting companies, said in an interview.

The mission comes at a time when U.S. exporters are facing troubles getting farm goods approved by China due to the trade war raging between Washington and Beijing, which traders said may favor Argentina.

"This is a troubled time for the U.S.-China trade relationship. Maybe that's an opportunity for Argentina, specifically regarding value-added products like soymeal," said an executive at one of the Argentine crushing plants slated to be inspected. He asked not to be named.

"In March the Chinese vice minister of food security told me that the only questions remaining about Argentine soymeal were of price and quality," Idigoras said. "We offer the best of both, so we are very confident the mission will be a success."
 
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
Trump warns China may delay trade agreement to after US election
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!




Rest of the article just mentions how people want him to resolve the trade war.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


While not directly related, this article basically highlights the Trumpsters' position in the election. In a basic premise of poisoning the well, the extreme right had literally killed off one of the most important pillars of US democracy : That of the transfer of power. In the end, it remains to be seen how many GOP voters actually buys what this article is selling, but the damage is already done: That it is implied that Trump must win in order to show that the election is "fair", which destroys the very notion of free and fair elections to begin with.
 
Top