Trade War with China

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solarz

Brigadier
Yes, this is great, there's some racism there. Nice to stir the pot, to throw out mild provocations and occasional insults, sarcasm etc, sprinkled with lot's of LOL's, and just wait until someone crosses a certain line. Perhaps @siegecrossbow can examine the whole conversation, which starts some 10 pages back, so see what role various people play. Otherwise, the moderator risks being used for someone's agenda.

Just put the troll on your ignore list. Problem solved.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
And if we go with China having a $38 Trillion in PPP terms in 2025, what does that mean for military spending?

If China maintains military spending at a modest 2% of GDP, that works out as $760Billion in PPP terms.
But if there is a full-scale technology cold war, that will spill over into the realm of military spending.

So we could expect China's military spending to be double at 4%.
After all, that is what the US routinely spent over the past 15-odd years.
They should decrease taxes and military spending as gdp rises imo. Private sector is more important.
 

vesicles

Colonel
They should decrease taxes and military spending as gdp rises imo. Private sector is more important.

I've heard many people talk about this theory. In the short term, this may sound like a good thing since you focus more on making the money. However, you should also think about how to protect your hard-earned money once you get it.

Without a powerful military, your money will become others' money in no time.

At the very least, a huge market with a deep pocket and immense spending power will attract a lot people who would want to sell their products to you. If you don't want to buy their goods, they will coarse you to do open your market to them. Sounds familiar? I'm not even talking about any current events. I'm talking about the Opium War back in the 1840's when the British forces China to open their market to British opium traders. Back then, China was still pretty poor, but still a huge market. Just imagine how people will salivate when China is actual wealthy...

And developing military does not take overnight. It takes a lot of time and resources.

This is why we buy alarm systems for our houses and pay taxes to have an efficient law enforcement agency. Sure, we can use that money to get our kids into even better schools, but we need help to make sure our kids stay safe...
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Well if China has no ambitions to run an empire like the US, it has no use for a burgeoning military that wastes money. It just needs to do enough to keep India and US in check.

Naturally, we Chinese are peaceful, intellectual, and business minded people and don't like chaos and trouble. I know it's probably why we got screwed so many times, but I'm confident the future will be different.
 

vesicles

Colonel
Well if China has no ambitions to run an empire like the US, it has no use for a burgeoning military that wastes money. It just needs to do enough to keep India and US in check.

Naturally, we Chinese are peaceful, intellectual, and business minded people and don't like chaos and trouble. I know it's probably why we got screwed so many times, but I'm confident the future will be different.

why are you confident that the future will be different? We are still human and our human nature will never change. We respect and admire the strong and prey on the weak. It's human nature.

It's not about running an empire, but protecting yourself. You cannot rely on others' mercy for peace. You have to be be strong to stay safe.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Naturally, we Chinese are peaceful, intellectual, and business minded people and don't like chaos and trouble. I know it's probably why we got screwed so many times, but I'm confident the future will be different.
The future will be no different if people like you get their way. Happily, nobody anywhere near the Chinese leadership is so completely brain-dead to seriously consider what you proposed. What an absurd proposition.

And another thing, who said China shouldn't run an empire?
 

Arkboy

New Member
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The future will be no different if people like you get their way. Happily, nobody anywhere near the Chinese leadership is so completely brain-dead to seriously consider what you proposed. What an absurd proposition.

And another thing, who said China shouldn't run an empire?


Maybe there is a reason why Huawei was targted with such surgical precision. Not only does it set back Huawei at least 30 billion this year (which is the GDP of some smaller nations!) but also it hampers their 5G rollout efforts at the most critical moment in history just when China is signing on board other nations striking 5G implementation and infrastructure deals. The effect of the ban also targets Huawei's smartphone division which has become a huge moneymaker for the entire company but also by forcing Huawei to slash its smartphone production it takes out three birds with one stone, reducing its rise in the 5G endpoints and eroding away whatever synergy that might have developed when other partners roll out both the 5G towers and 5G smartphone endpoints.

Huawei is seen by the West as the single most important company in terms of helping China rise, which is why it was targeted first in the technowar.... the hopes of Steve Bannon, Pompeous, and many of the other PNAC Hawks is that by destroying or severly containing Huawei, the US will reverse the tide on China's tech rise, hence influencing China's grand strategy of the BRI, and of MIC2025 and by extension also the plans to replace the Petrodollar hegemony with the PetroYuan.

Steve Bannon has openly called for regime change of the Chinese government (mainland) and stated that it either us or them, meaning its all or none, winner takes all, zero sum game, no second place etc etc and that if US doesn't squash China and takeover it completely, China will eventually do the same to the US.
 

Arkboy

New Member
Registered Member
In the bigger picture you can see the US moving away from the "free trade" system that it built after WWII because by and large it no longer benefits the US for such a system. You see this happen with corporations as well, take Google and its Chrome browser for example. On the way up (back when IE had largest share and Firefox a second place and Chrome was just 1%) it was all about freedom this and that, allowing extensions and even ad blockers, though ad blocking was not good for its business model. Chrome had to support it for any chance to gain on Firefox and IE. Now that Chrome has like 90% of the browser marketshare, they turned against thier earlier model of openness and starting July will ban all ad blocking on their Chrome... If you look at Google as a whole company, on its way up it was all about openness, transparency and freedom and this was a sales pitch to contrast it to Microsoft with the "do no evil" slogan/motto... as Google grow up very bigly and the market matures it has turned into the very thing that it once disparaged when it was little...

So we are at the inflection point where the US calculates that the benefits it gets from keeping the status quo that it maintained since WWII is no longer outweighing the costs it has to pay (in terms of this openness allowing competitors like China to catch up etc) so it believes its best own interest is clamping down on competitors even if it is blatantly obvious to everyone what is really happpening. For sure the Huawei ban will negative blowback effects for US, in terms of showing the world that it is no longer reliable and is reneging on its own systems put in place for more than half century, but in its final analysis it must believe that clamping down on China regardless of method is more important than maintaining a free open system.
 
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