Trade War with China

CMP said:

i can confirm you are correct. even under ordinary circumstances, but especially under trump and the new mccarthyism, there is nothing to gain and everything to lose by even leaving a single hint of disloyalty

our friend max here can’t possibly understand the risk profile for a chinese working in the west. the best move is to avoid expressing opinions westerners would disapprove of or frown upon. and when pressed to have an opinion, simply lie and express the politically correct opinion for the host country. deary me, i do love this freedom and democracy so much and nothing back home can compare! it’s priceless, and no amount of money or opportunity could be traded for it!

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Well, actually one thing I appreciate about being in the US is the freedom to express whatever political views you want and not have to worry about repercussions. I can see how this may not be the case in certain sensitive fields of research, but I have never witnessed it in my own experience. I work with a large number of colleagues of Chinese descent, and most are either moderately pro-China like myself or don't seem to care too much, but there are some that are very pro-China, as well as a small number that actually happen to be the most anti-China (but not necessarily very pro-US) people I have known. And most non-Chinese I work with tend to either seem to be neutral, or even have a positive view of China, very few have a very negative view. I guess there is a lot of variance between different population strata, so I don't think it's possible to generalize about most Americans or most Chinese.

CMP said:

which also means they have a lot to lose and will not be open about any of their opinions or thoughts that non-chinese will take offense at, or risk raising suspicions of inadequate loyalty to america, or too much loyalty to china

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I remember when I was growing up in the UK. in my late teens and early twenties, in the work place, whenever English people starting to bad mouth China or a developing country.

I, naively thinking I've as much right to express my opinons as any other British citizen. Pointing out the flaws in the British system, or Monarchy, or anything British.

I was quickly told "if I don't like it here, I can simply leave the country"!

Its amazing, basically what they are saying is I have no rights to debate with them. I'm not seen as the citizen of the country.

The things was, my friends who have same opinons as me, but are English, put the same points across, they are not told to leave the country, yet somehow, when I express my opinons, I get slapped down by "I should leave if I don't like it"!

This is why most Chinese abroad will talk about weather and fishing or golf. Rather than opening up and telling it how it is.

I think on this point, our friend Max will never understand!

solarz said:

While true, there's still the question of how much resources you should devote to such R&D. The devil is in the details.

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CMP said:

As much as possible.

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In the short-term, yes, China companies should spend as much as possible on increased R&D spending.
But in the long-run, it does look like there is a practical limit to productive R&D spending.

Many hi-tech countries (US, Germany, Korea, Taiwan, Israel, Switzerland, Austria, Finland etc) max out at $1400-$1600 per person
But China is roughly at $400 (PPP) per person.
That works out as 2.18% of GDP, which is an exceptionally high amount of R&D spending for a middle-income country.
Everyone else at that level is already wealthy and developed, and we can already see China is on the path to joining them, given some time.

And eventually, a wealthy developed China could be spending 3.1% of GDP on R&D spending like its East Asian Confucian peer group.
That likely means more R&D spending in China than the rest of the world combined.
But bear in mind that this scenario is at least 2 decades away...

Max Demian said:

We do touch upon political topics now and then. I try not to be critical and just listen. Often they echo the sentiments I hear at sdf, but they are not reluctant to point out the things that are currently better here than where they came from, such as infrastructure, schools, medical services, clean air&water, lack of corruption, efficient and fair judicial system. That they are content is evident from the fact that they bought properties and are raising their children here.

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You know what, I posted the last comment and left and I was thinking about what I'm saying. I could have been too hasty as I wrote assuming that the political environment where you are is similar to the US, where I am and that's most likely not true. I don't want to leave you the impression that all the Chinese people you talk to are having all-Chinese meetings behind your back plotting your demise LOL That's certainly not happening. What I was saying is that when a country like the US is a rival to China and has made a very negative political environment against the Chinese here, the Chinese will side with our own country, in spirit even if they have nothing in material to offer. But if you are in a relatively neutral country, like Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, etc... with no rivalry to China, the relationship will be much more relaxed and amicable between the natives and the Chinese. So once again, don't think that all the Chinese are out to get you; you very well might live in a nice country where friendship trumps (any small amount of) rivalry. I didn't mean to leave that sort of impression on you at all especially I most likely have never been where you live.

Max Demian said:

Curiously, none of them seem too impressed about democracy, unlike some Taiwanese people I've got to know better. But that's a story for a different forum ...

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Not curious to me. I have lived in China and unless you are a radical out to cause trouble, you have all the freedoms you could want and then some additional ones you do not have in the US! Comparing my living experience between countries, I can tell you that democracy is absolutely a gimmick and unless you're a real trouble-maker, you have to be badly brainwashed with the placebo effect to feel any difference in a democratic country than you do in China.

western does have better freedom of speech/press etc. I hate trump, i can bash or make fun of him. i can't do that in china with Xi. Not a single day goes by where media doesnt bashing or make fun of trump. personal freedom(what to eat, what to buy, where to visit etc etc), about the same. but probably shouldn't get into politic, off topic.

AndrewS said:

In the short-term, yes, China companies should spend as much as possible on increased R&D spending.
But in the long-run, it does look like there is a practical limit to productive R&D spending.

Many hi-tech countries (US, Germany, Korea, Taiwan, Israel, Switzerland, Austria, Finland etc) max out at $1400-$1600 per person
But China is roughly at $400 (PPP) per person.
That works out as 2.18% of GDP, which is an exceptionally high amount of R&D spending for a middle-income country.
Everyone else at that level is already wealthy and developed, and we can already see China is on the path to joining them, given some time.

And eventually, a wealthy developed China could be spending 3.1% of GDP on R&D spending like its East Asian Confucian peer group.
That likely means more R&D spending in China than the rest of the world combined.
But bear in mind that this scenario is at least 2 decades away...

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You are observing the falling rate of profit under capitalist economies. In competitive markets, the players are allowed to invest where ever they think will return profits. As capital intensity grows the return from productive investments declines and instead investment goes into parasitic sectors (the FIRE sector) or outright scams. You only have to see the absolutely moronic products coming out of silicon valley such a Juicero to see what happens in a mature market economy. In the long run China will have to euthanize the market and switch back to democratically directed investment lest the hard work of the Chinese people be squandered on get rich quick schemes.

s002wjh said:

western does have better freedom of speech/press etc. I hate trump, i can bash or make fun of him. i can't do that in china with Xi. Not a single day goes by where media doesnt bashing or make fun of trump. personal freedom(what to eat, what to buy, where to visit etc etc), about the same. but probably shouldn't get into politic, off topic.

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You are allowed to criticize in the west because you are powerless. Same with participating in elections.

Looking at the recent Fed rate positions and possible July cut, I do not think there will be a trade deal anytime soon. Trump needs rates to keep getting cut to prevent a recession and a trade deal *might* derail that.

I alway feel ridiculous when reading something in Western MSM like journalist ask young student come from Asia how they feel when live and study in America or UK etc. Besides something obviously like US is beautiful, rich,

Gatekeeper said:

WOW! That's naive to even say that from Ren. I'm surprised, in marketing, you should always show that you are backing your product. This is why in my days all the top bosses in the car industries drives around in their own brand cars as opppsed to top of the range luxury models from a premium brand.

Its not sending a postive image about your own product

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Max Demian said:

We do touch upon political topics now and then. I try not to be critical and just listen. Often they echo the sentiments I hear at sdf, but they are not reluctant to point out the things that are currently better here than where they came from, such as infrastructure, schools, medical services, clean air&water, lack of corruption, efficient and fair judicial system. That they are content is evident from the fact that they bought properties and are raising their children here.

Curiously, none of them seem too impressed about democracy, unlike some Taiwanese people I've got to know better. But that's a story for a different forum ...

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School and hospital does suck. But in other ways, top tier city are better than west standard like new york. Those city are approaching korean and japanese tier.

Then journalist alway come up to ask "golden spoon", " prince and princess" about politics. I mean what the heck those teen know or feel about lack of freedom of speech or human rights. I pretty sure they're can do anything back home because their parents will protect them with any cost.