Trade War with China

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Just4Fun

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China just released trade data of the first five months of 2019.
Will Trump twitter "trade wars are easy to win" again?


海关总署：前5个月美国为中国第三大贸易伙伴，中美贸易下降9.6%
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Translation of some of the report.
1) China's total goods trade value is 12.1 trillion Yuan, 4% increase YOY. Export is 6.5 trillion Yuan, up 6.5%, Import is 5.6 trillion Yuan, up 1.8%. Trade surplus is 893.3 billion Yuan, increase 45% YOY.

2) EU is China's largest trading partner, accounting for 15.7% of total goods trade, up 11.7%. ASEAN is China's second largest trading partner, with 13.5% total goods trade value, up 9.4%. The US is China's third largest trading partner, accounting for 11.7% of China's total goods trade, down 9.6%. Japan is the fourth largest trading partner, accounting for 7% of China's total goods trade, up 0.9%. Goods trade with Belt and Road countries is 3.49 trillion Yuan, accounting for 28.8% of China's total goods trade value, up 9%, making B & R countries the largest trade bloc of China.

3) China's total goods trade with the US for the first five months is 1.42 trillion Yuan, down 9.6%. Export is 1.9 trillion Yuan, down 3.2%. Import is 335.2 billion Yuan, down 25.7%. Trade surplus is 750.6 billion Yuan, up 11.9%.

4) Private enterprises' export and import value is 5.02 trillion Yuan, accounting for 41.4% of China's total goods trade, up 11.1%. Foreign Investment firms' export and import value is 4.9 trillion, accounting for 40.5% China's total trade value, down 1.2%. SOEs' export and import is 2.14 trillion Yuan, accounting for 17.7% of China's total trade value, increase 1.4%.
 
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Tam

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Jura said:
now I read
China's rare-earth exports slump 16 percent month-on-month in May
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/6/10 12:55:19
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Rare earth export slump --- and I don't think the Chinese government is withholding shipments --- is more an indication of a global manufacturing slowdown that is sweeping across the world from Germany to Japan and the US. Less things being ordered, less things being made, less rare earths needed. This is more of an incoming global recession sign.
 
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AndrewS

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Exclusive: Nokia and Ericsson plan emergency break-up over trade war and security fears

Nokia and Ericsson, two of Europe’s biggest technology titans, are weighing drastic changes to their corporate structures, including setting up separate units in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres, in a bid to protect themselves against the escalating global trade war.

Both companies, which make equipment used to run 5G networks, have started drawing up emergency plans to move some of their most sensitive operations out of China and split up their supply chains to counter increasing national security concerns, sources have told The Sunday Telegraph.

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Just4Fun

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Just4Fun said:
China just released trade data of the first five months of 2019.
Will Trump twitter "trade wars are easy to win" again?


海关总署：前5个月美国为中国第三大贸易伙伴，中美贸易下降9.6%
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Translation of some of the report.
1) China's total goods trade value is 12.1 trillion Yuan, 4% increase YOY. Export is 6.5 trillion Yuan, up 6.5%, Import is 5.6 trillion Yuan, up 1.8%. Trade surplus is 893.3 billion Yuan, increase 45% YOY.

2) EU is China's largest trading partner, accounting for 15.7% of total goods trade, up 11.7%. ASEAN is China's second largest trading partner, with 13.5% total goods trade value, up 9.4%. The US is China's third largest trading partner, accounting for 11.7% of China's total goods trade, down 9.6%. Japan is the fourth largest trading partner, accounting for 7% of China's total goods trade, up 0.9%. Goods trade with Belt and Road countries is 3.49 trillion Yuan, accounting for 28.8% of China's total goods trade value, up 9%, making B & R countries the largest trade bloc of China.

3) China's total goods trade with the US for the first five months is 1.42 trillion Yuan, down 9.6%. Export is 1.9 trillion Yuan, down 3.2%. Import is 335.2 billion Yuan, down 25.7%. Trade surplus is 750.6 billion Yuan, up 11.9%.

4) Private enterprises' export and import value is 5.02 trillion Yuan, accounting for 41.4% of China's total goods trade, up 11.1%. Foreign Investment firms' export and import value is 4.9 trillion, accounting for 40.5% China's total trade value, down 1.2%. SOEs' export and import is 2.14 trillion Yuan, accounting for 17.7% of China's total trade value, increase 1.4%.
Click to expand...

What has the report revealed?
1) Trump's attempt to hold China's rise through trade war isn't working so far. China's status as world largest goods trader is not just holding steady, but actually strengthening despite high US tariffs. (Bad news for China haters, even though they will insist China is making up the numbers as usual.)

2) China's effort to diversify its trading partner base is paying off. China is moving away from the US. In the meantime, trading with Belt & Road counties increases rapidly. This trend will likely continue. (The potential is unfathomable for China.)

3) There are some foreigner-owned firms moving out from China, (either because of increase of product cost in China, or because of US-China trade war.)

4) China is well on its way to climb up the value chain. (Those move-out foreign firms are likely low-value goods makers. Their goods were replaced by high-value goods made by Chinese firms. This is why China's overall trade value is actually increased even though there foreign firms moving out from China.)

5) Relatively weak import numbers may be caused by low commodity prices, especially low crude oil price. This may signal a worldwide recession is coming soon. Weak import numbers also may inflate China's trade surplus numbers. (My speculations.)
 
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AndrewS

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Standards body warns on US blacklisting of Huawei
Financial Times London

Analysts say move could lead to bifurcation of 5G development

The international body responsible for setting 5G standards has warned that the US move to blacklist Chinese telecoms group Huawei could have “a dramatic impact” on future standardisation, with analysts warning it could lead to a bifurcation in development of the next-generation wireless technology.

Adrian Scrase, who heads up the 3GPP’s permanent support team, said: “We cannot speculate on what will happen, but if the current situation prevails — this could have a dramatic impact on future standardisation.”

Analysts see several risks, including a fracturing of the global standard setting system and a return to a bifurcated market — much as China’s great firewall has created a “splinternet” of what was conceived of as borderless cyber space.

Huawei and other Chinese groups already play a leading role in standard setting. Georg Mayer, an executive at the telecoms group, leads one of three divisions that decides on technical specifications at 3GPP, the standards body. The Shenzhen-based company also owns more 5G standard essential patents for the technology than any other company, according to market intelligence group IPlytics.

“The risk that 3GPP is going to break down is pretty high,” said Edison Lee, analyst at Jefferies. He also sees a possibility that US companies will pull out of standards bodies if Huawei remains at the table but US patented technology — under the terms of the Entity List — cannot be licensed to the group.

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The non-US world is going with low-band and medium-band frequencies.
But the US military is blocking US telecoms companies from using these frequencies, so they have to develop high frequency mmWave technology and standards

Remember that the US 5G market is a lot smaller than the European 5G market.
And in turn the European 5G market is a lot smaller than the Chinese market.

So if the 5G 3GPP standards body (based in France) has to choose because US companies can't deal with Huawei or Chinese companies, it makes more sense to exclude Qualcomm and Intel patents from the global 5G standard. See chart below

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xiabonan

Junior Member
Does anyone think Trump has been ill-advised by people close to him?

I think there must be some sort of a gap in understanding and knowledge on the whole 5G thing within the Trump administration. Do they not understand that by banning Huawei, it is not that the world is closing on Huawei, but the US is getting isolated from the rest of the world? Are they just THAT confident that Huawei will effectively be dead due to the ban and that somehow US firms will come out on top?

Hasn't the AIIB taught them a thing or two? This whole thing right now just looks an awful like how the AIIB story unfolded.
 
C

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
why would they have learned from obama admin when they have summarily dismissed his entire record. clean slate for repeating stupid historical mistakes!

xiabonan said:
Does anyone think Trump has been ill-advised by people close to him?

I think there must be some sort of a gap in understanding and knowledge on the whole 5G thing within the Trump administration. Do they not understand that by banning Huawei, it is not that the world is closing on Huawei, but the US is getting isolated from the rest of the world? Are they just THAT confident that Huawei will effectively be dead due to the ban and that somehow US firms will come out on top?

Hasn't the AIIB taught them a thing or two? This whole thing right now just looks an awful like how the AIIB story unfolded.
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T

Tyler

Captain
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gelgoog said:
The Free Software community has had similar issues with things like the export of cryptography software in the past. Typically that was solved by putting the code on foreign servers where US rules don't apply. My guess is much the same would happen in this case.
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They will probably learn from what ARM and AMD did, by setting up "foreign joint ventures".
 
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AndrewS

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manqiangrexue said:
I look forward to the time. If Trump exits and someone who makes sense enters, he can rally Europe against China, which is an incredibly easy task given that the EU was asking to be rallied when Obama was leaving. With Agent Orange, the US goes it alone and has already given up the moral high ground in the eyes of the rest of the world.

I know he's outwardly very nasty to China, but look at what could have happened if a capable US president who didn't divide his country and alienate American allies was elected instead. At the end of Obama's term, China was in a dangerous position and its citizens didn't even know because everyone was friendly, but they were getting into position to surround China with trade attacks. Now, every Chinese citizen is incredibly aware of the dangers yet they have actually ameliorated under a US president with a big mouth who has crippled the European trade front against China. 5 more years is a blessing and an opportunity for China but a curse to be waited out for those in the EU who are still anti-Chinese. For them, they'll have to hold out for another 5 years. If Trump amends the constitution and sets himself up for unlimited terms, the European alliance with the US is broken.
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No, Europe wasn't asking to be rallied when Obama left. Europe is still bitterly divided on so many issues, and the situation is only getting worse.

Trump has demonstrated to China, Europe and Asia how how the US has gone completely rogue and is attacking the existing system.

So there could still be a US-Europe agreement on how to deal with China on trade and investment, but it would be premised on a liberal trade and investment order, around the WTO.

That means a a much more reasonable set of asks, and rules out unilateral tariffs in contravention of the WTO, and the separation of national security and economic issues, etc etc

Obama's strategy was TPP and the TTIP, which would have bound most of the world's economic activity to those US-derived rules.
But in the long-run, joining TPP should be in China's interests.

The National Science Foundation reported that China is now spending more on technology R&D than the USA in 2019, and this is still growing rapidly.
And the sheer size of China's domestic market would mean Chinese companies (whether state-owned or private) would expand and become global multi-nationals.

I reckon that in 10 years time, it would be in China's interests to join TPP.
And if the US is still absent, it means everyone in Asia looks to China for global economic leadership, rather than the US.
 
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