Trade War with China

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
checked after I had read
China is letting value of yuan slide to offset trade war tariffs, US Trade Secretary Steven Mnuchin says
  • Currency’s slump is not a coincidence and could be the result of Beijing not intervening in markets, politician says
  • Chinese firms are absorbing a large part of the tariff rise to prevent price increases being passed on to US consumers, he says
Updated: 11:28pm, 8 Jun, 2019
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Economics
IMF Says U.S. Is Paying China Tariff Costs, Contrary to Trump’s Claim
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Brendan Murray
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•May 23, 2019

42d130eceacf8fafce76f739023007b6

IMF Says U.S. Is Paying China Tariff Costs, Contrary to Trump’s Claim

(Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. are paying almost all the costs from Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports, IMF researchers said in findings that contradict the president’s assertions that China is footing the bill.

IMF researchers found “tariff revenue collected has been borne almost entirely by U.S. importers,” according to the International Monetary Fund’s blog post released Thursday.

“Some of these tariffs have been passed on to U.S. consumers, like those on washing machines, while others have been absorbed by importing firms through lower profit margins.”
 

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
Trump Admin operates on alternative facts. Tariffs are levied at the points of entry where domestic tariff rules apply, not at exit points which fall under China's jurisdiction. If they are referring to transfer pricing illegally done when China based US manufacturers re-exporting to US shores, then those US firms are tax cheaters in China and they should be dealt with according to China's domestic tax laws.

Mnuchin can spin as much as he wants but the facts remain RMB depreciation is solely a result of Trump's tariffs and market's reactions. PBoC monetary policy is pro-growth, so it's perfectly logical and reasonable to let it run its course and watch carefully from the sideline. US can bitch and moan, but can't do diddly squat about it. It's very wise PBoC is silently watching over the short sellers and they certainly felt the 1000 lbs gorilla breathing down their neck. PBoC wouldn't need to anything other than watch until Fed's next move before the year end.

US complains about intellectual theft. In fact US is the biggest when it comes to stealing intellectual capacity from all over the world. Without foreigners' help in US R&D, US wouldn't be where it is now. Stealing foreign talents is what the whole freedom enterprise is all about. Developing third world suffers a lot from brain drain. China trains her talents from the young age at great expense and US poaches them for free. China should point out this intellectual theft loud and clear.
 

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
Trump Admin operates on alternative facts. Tariffs are levied at the points of entry where domestic tariff rules apply, not at exit points which fall under China's jurisdiction. If they are referring to transfer pricing illegally done when China based US manufacturers re-exporting to US shores, then those US firms are tax cheaters in China and they should be dealt with according to China's domestic tax laws.

Mnuchin can spin as much as he wants but the facts remain RMB depreciation is solely a result of Trump's tariffs and market's reactions. PBoC monetary policy is pro-growth, so it's perfectly logical and reasonable to let it run its course and watch carefully from the sideline. US can bitch and moan, but can't do diddly squat about it. It's very wise PBoC is silently watching over the short sellers and they certainly felt the 1000 lbs gorilla breathing down their neck. PBoC wouldn't need to anything other than watch until Fed's next move before the year end.

US complains about intellectual theft. In fact US is the biggest when it comes to stealing intellectual capacity from all over the world. Without foreigners' help in US R&D, US wouldn't be where it is now. Stealing foreign talents is what the whole freedom enterprise is all about. Developing third world suffers a lot from brain drain. China trains her talents from the young age at great expense and US poaches them for free. China should point out this intellectual theft loud and clear.

--------
DavidAu add:
High time US admits it is an intellectual thief. It's a case of thief cries thief which is customerly used by the US. China now has more patents than USA! Won't be surprised if US tries to lure these young talents to the promise land, if not already done so....
 

Just4Fun

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here is an excellent op/ed by Leslie Fong former editor of Straits Time. The US completely misjudge the historic burden of China Xi just cannot give in to those outrageous demand. It will tantamount to surrendering Chinese sovereignty and their right for better future No sane leader will accept that . Least of all Xi who has strong sense of history and China's place in the world.
China will fight this trade war to bitter end!. In hindsight his early purge of his detractor now can be seen as preparation for this trade war To unite the whole administration and military behind him

Asian Angle by Leslie Fong
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Trump’s biggest mistake in US-China trade war: not realising the Chinese will never genuflect again
  • China’s collective memory of a century of humiliation by foreign powers, beginning with the First Opium War, has steeled its resolve
  • American politicians just do not understand the power of national self-esteem that underpins China’s resilience, writes Leslie Fong
Published: 11:30am, 1 Jun, 2019

This article states only from the angle of psychology of Chinese. But what is more important is the fact that the US has lost its qualification to talk with China any issues regarding China's sovereignty, after it failed to win the Korean war against China in the 1950s.

It is universally accepted that you would never get through negotiation what you couldn't get in the battle field. (世间普遍认同,战场上得不到的东西,你休想通过谈判得到。) Trump's biggest mistake is that he doesn't know this law, even though he proclaims he is a genius in negotiation. Trump is so stupid that he thinks he could use high tariff to pressure China to give up its sovereignty on issues such as territory (Taiwan), currency (RMB), economic policies (SOEs),... etc. He probably even thinks he could force China to accept a regime change through trade war. His stupidity and arrogance are beyond description.

China may agree to spend some trade surplus money to buy US goods. Anything beyond this is off the table.

China's national sovereignty is nonnegotiable. It is earned by Chinese people through armed struggles against foreign aggressors and their puppets from the 1840s to the 1950s. To have Chinese give up their sovereignty, Trump need fight and win a shooting war against China in China's turfs.

If the US can't win the Korean war when China was in its weakest times, forget about any war against China. War means hostility. Trade war, tech war, economic war, politic war, cultural war, cold war, or hot war,...etc., all are the result of hostility. Unfortunately, hostility can easily spread from one area to another. Eventually, armed confrontation will slip in as force is the ultimate answer to all disputes.

The US was lucky to walk away from its war debts after it lost the Koran war and Vietnam war. It did so by defaulting the dollar through abandoning gold standard in 1971, thus tearing up the Breton Forest Accord to pieces. It will not be so lucky for the Americans if the US loses another war to China in Asia. This time, the US will be dismembered by the gravity of its national debts and the squeezing force of dollar demise.
 

chlosy

Junior Member
Registered Member
what exactly do you mean by "the part where these apps can be easily installed through an app store"
?
The articles emphasize Facebook not being pre loaded, but do not mention loading the app is very easy from any app store
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Trump's ez election win on Mexico will give him the reelection. immigration is the #1 issue according to many polls. Looks like China will have to hold out for 5+ years now.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Trump's ez election win on Mexico will give him the reelection. immigration is the #1 issue according to many polls. Looks like China will have to hold out for 5+ years now.
I look forward to the time. If Trump exits and someone who makes sense enters, he can rally Europe against China, which is an incredibly easy task given that the EU was asking to be rallied when Obama was leaving. With Agent Orange, the US goes it alone and has already given up the moral high ground in the eyes of the rest of the world.

I know he's outwardly very nasty to China, but look at what could have happened if a capable US president who didn't divide his country and alienate American allies was elected instead. At the end of Obama's term, China was in a dangerous position and its citizens didn't even know because everyone was friendly, but they were getting into position to surround China with trade attacks. Now, every Chinese citizen is incredibly aware of the dangers yet they have actually ameliorated under a US president with a big mouth who has crippled the European trade front against China. 5 more years is a blessing and an opportunity for China but a curse to be waited out for those in the EU who are still anti-Chinese. For them, they'll have to hold out for another 5 years. If Trump amends the constitution and sets himself up for unlimited terms, the European alliance with the US is broken.
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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I thought China was begging for a deal badly as Trump said recently. Now they're making threats because China is not coming to the table at all. If they don't need China, you don't need to make threats. Just end all relations... When you fear the very thing happening that you used as a threat, you're the one bluffing and in the weaker position. We're a long way from trade wars are easy to win and China was going to collapse day one of Trump's trade war.
 

xiabonan

Junior Member
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I thought China was begging for a deal badly as Trump said recently. Now they're making threats because China is not coming to the table at all. If they don't need China, you don't need to make threats. Just end all relations... When you fear the very thing happening that you used as a threat, you're the one bluffing and in the weaker position. We're a long way from trade wars are easy to win and China was going to collapse day one of Trump's trade war.

Kinda reminds people of Mao Zedong's reference to the US as a "paper tiger" isn't it.

A threat works best when your opponent is caught unprepared. Now that China has been preparing for full tariffs for months, both examining its tools and preparing its people mentally, how do you expect your threat to work?

The same applies to the Huawei situation. With each day passing by American companies are losing money and market share. If the situation drags on, that money and market share is never going to come back, just like the situation for soy beans. Once China switches suppliers to domestic sources and from other countries, why do they want to switch back to American ones?

What the US had planned for is probably this: by banning Huawei, China will immediately be forced to come back to the negotiating table, hence why Trump said Huawei can be included in a deal. Meaning by taking Huawei hostage the US can hopefully extract from China the deal that they want asap, and then when the deal is signed Huawei can be spared and American companies will be back to business as normal, without losing much at all.

But how it played out later, I think we all know by now. Huawei isn't facing an existential threat, although some of its business may be damaged, but its core business can be largely intact. And as I said earlier, with each day passes, the likelihood that those American suppliers banning Huawei will become irrelevant in the China market increases day by day.
 
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