Trade War with China

Shaolian said:

Thank you guys for the enlightening discussions.

There are just a few things that I'm still not sure when it comes to the relationship between Google, Google's own version of Android (which is based on AOSP?) and AOSP itself.

My understanding of it is this, correct me if I'm wrong:

1. AOSP is based off of Linux kernel. Henceforth, newer Linux versions will have nothing to do with AOSP anymore.

2. AOSP is open source, and is maintained by Google.

3. Google's Android is based off of AOSP, and Google's Android is NOT open source.

4. The confusing part is this, which one does Google update first, AOSP or Google's Android? For example, Android Pie, does Google update AOSP to version "Pie" first, then update their own Google's Android? Or is it the opposite? My impression is, Google's Android gets updates first, then only AOSP. And lots of features are missing from the bare bones AOSP.

5. All current Android devices' OS'ses (Xiaomi's MiUI, Huawei's EMUI, etc.) in China or the whole world for that matter, is currently based off of Google's Android (not based on AOSP). Only major exception is Amazon's Kindle devices (which uses Amazon's in-house OS, based on AOSP) and also all the "custom ROMs" (based on AOSP) that private developers (normal phone enthusiasts, like you and me) make.

If my understanding is correct, then Huawei would still be forced to eventually fork their Ark OS further and further away from AOSP, because one can never be sure if Google will one day decide to turn off the tap to AOSP completely. But in the mean time, of course, Ark OS will be pretty much 100% compatible with AOSP.


CAUTION!!

All the above is just my understanding, please correct me if any info is wrong.

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Actually, Google updates Android first, and AOSP only receives the update later.

AOSP is open-source, and it's exactly that, open-source. It can't be controlled by Google in the same way that Android is.

xiabonan said:

Actually, Google updates Android first, and AOSP only receives the update later.

AOSP is open-source, and it's exactly that, open-source. It can't be controlled by Google in the same way that Android is.

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So, my assumptions are all correct?

Shaolian said:

So, my assumptions are all correct?

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Pretty much, except the part that Google can turn off the tap on AOSP. I don't think it can. At least it can't turn off the tap specifically to Huawei. Google may find a way to make AOSP unable to get the latest Android updates but that would mean not only Huawei but anyone using AOSP will not be getting updates, and this may cause further fragmentation within the Android Ecosystem.

Also, Huawei's OS is likely not simply a fork of Android and polished version of AOSP. It will be run Android apps but has a different core architecture and runtime.

xiabonan said:

Pretty much, except the part that Google can turn off the tap on AOSP. I don't think it can. At least it can't turn off the tap specifically to Huawei. Google may find a way to make AOSP unable to get the latest Android updates but that would mean not only Huawei but anyone using AOSP will not be getting updates, and this may cause further fragmentation within the Android Ecosystem.

Also, Huawei's OS is likely not simply a fork of Android and polished version of AOSP. It will be run Android apps but has a different core architecture and runtime.

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That may well be the case, but just one more scenario from me.

Say, Google discontinued AOSP, and just maintan (Google's) Android. Wouldn't that still be enough for all the manufacturers out there, except Amazon's Kindles and all those custom ROMs? Because as far as I know Samsung's TouchWiz/OneUI, Xiaomi's MiUI and Huawei's current EMUI are all based on (Google's) Android, and not AOSP?

Unless all these manufacturers' UIs are based on AOSP, then Google could still pull off AOSP with minimal inconvenience to those manufacturers. Samsung won't care, cos it's UI is based on (Google's) Android, not AOSP, Xiaomi won't be either, cos again, same reason, but Huawei (or anyone Google decides to ban) will be inconvenient.

But of course, this will still generate a whole lot of distrust in Google.

Here's the bottom line... How much money is the US willing to outspend China in order to get the world to follow US interests? Trump has to be the worst representative to gang-up the world against China since he's also attacking them but still no matter who, how much money is the US willing to spend to pay-off other countries to turn away from China? Trump thinks the US has the upper hand simply because he thinks everyone needs the US while the US needs no one. The US would tell China that it had to be an open country in order for their to be innovation. No one even Democrats mentions that to Trump since he's closing off the US. Why? Because that's nonsense they too have been using to manipulate China into opening solely so the US can have influence over China. They want veto power over anything China does like they have over allies now. They hate China simply for existing hence they're alarmed over Made in China 2025. So why would they tell China the secrets to being innovative when that would just make China into a competitor? It's all a lie in the first place and there are no good intentions involved.

People say the US will win because the economy is bigger and it has more money than China? But everything cost more for the US. That's why it's American experts that scoff at PPP more as any kind of legitimate indicator. They sell treasuries and bonds to pay for programs beyond what money the US makes. Why is Trump having trouble building his wall when tariffs alone he says China is paying will easily pay for it? Isn't the US flush with cash? The US isn't flush with cash because they already spent it in a budget passed by Congress and the President. The US would have to reallocate money away from programs. There's already partisan politics when they try to hammer out a budget. Just imagine the battle where they have to take money way from government programs just to pay off countries not to deal with China. And you think those countries aren't going to milk every penny they can from the US? They want to be in denial and rather believe everyone in the world naturally loves Americans and will naturally not expect the US to bail them out on what they lose from China as a customer.

Trump is expecting US companies to stop making money from what for many is their largest customer for their products. That's the flip side of the coin of Trump's ban is those US companies aren't making money. If they aren't making money, the less money they have for research and development. And where will those companies be asking for money to pay for the loss? Rare earths are getting attention in the US. And the guy that owns Mountain Pass, the US's only rare earth miner, is asking for money from the US government so that the US can be an independent rare earths producer. And the only way that can happen is the US government has to subsidize the industry.

When I ask why doesn't the US just end trade or any relations with China if the US doesn't need China? If that were true, why don't they do it? They're the ones that need China because China's existence contradicts everything they were culturally taught to believe. They need to change China to their way in order to claim their way is the only way and there's no alternative in the world so everyone has no other choice. Leaving China alone to go off on its own way goes against that. They know China is not going to wither away and die. Look at North Korea and how they want to be involved in what they claim is one of the most isolated and poorest countries in the world. And that was before they got nukes. They always have to impose themselves. Their only means left to change China would be war because Trump used up all of the US's leverage they had on China over trade complaints. If that was the easier less dangerous choice, they would drop all relations. They have more to worry about if they don't turn China.

xiabonan said:

Pretty much, except the part that Google can turn off the tap on AOSP. I don't think it can. At least it can't turn off the tap specifically to Huawei. Google may find a way to make AOSP unable to get the latest Android updates but that would mean not only Huawei but anyone using AOSP will not be getting updates, and this may cause further fragmentation within the Android Ecosystem.

Also, Huawei's OS is likely not simply a fork of Android and polished version of AOSP. It will be run Android apps but has a different core architecture and runtime.

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I don't think you and another person understand why Google is legally obligated to make AOSP.

This is because Android itself is based on another operating system --- Linux. Linux is free open source.

Linux license (GNU, GPL, etc,.) requires that if you take Linux, modify it and turn it to your own operating system, you are legally obligated to make your creation free as well, the code open, albeit minus certain proprietary additions.

Android is like an onion. The kernel or core is based on Linux. Android is a layer over Linux that has this virtual machine that executes pseudobyte code. It used to be a VM (interpreter) but now a dynamic runtime compiler and execution. There used to be a native code client for Android but we see less and less use of it as time goes by, probably eliminated altogether since its a security risk.

Then on top of Android is the UI. That's where "stock Android", Samsung "Touchwiz", MIUI, EMUI, OneUI, and so on resides.

So you see, Google cannot simply cut off from AOSP, they are legally obligated to maintain it as long as they operate Android. In addition, Google's ChromeOS is based off Linux as well. So you have been making a lot of money that's based off from an operating system that is basically free and open source.

Android apps are not statically compiled and stored in binary form like Windows .COM and .EXE files. This means they are processor independent. You can run Android apps on an Intel processor like in Chromebooks or in an ARM processor.

So at this point, you can see how ARK OS can be made to work. The dynamic runtime is the part that is important.

Google is at work on a new OS called Fuschia, that is said to be the combination of both ChromeOS and Android into a unified OS. This will run Android apps. Its been tested on devices, ironically, Huawei's.

now noticed the tweet

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China's soybean and pork imports from the United States fell heavily due to the China-U.S. trade friction, while those from other countries posted significant growth.

now I read
13:47, 08-Jun-2019
Google lobbies to continue business with Huawei

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Google is seeking to continue doing business with Huawei and has warned the Trump administration that it risks compromising national security if it moves ahead with a sweeping ban on the Chinese company, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Thursday.

Google's senior executives are lobbying U.S. officials to exempt it from an order that bans American companies from supplying software and components to the Chinese telecom giant, the newspaper said, citing three people briefed on the conversations.

The U.S. administration in May added Huawei to a trade blacklist after the China-U.S. trade talks suffered a major setback. The move, which put Huawei and 68 affiliates in more than two dozen countries on the Commerce Department's so-called Entity List, has prompted protests from several of the biggest U.S. tech companies.

Google has since then suspended business with Huawei after the ban, cutting it off from updates to the Android operating system.

While the sanctions are expected to hurt Huawei in the short term, industry experts say it could force the company – and other Chinese firms – to become self-reliant by developing more home-grown technologies, hurting the dominance of American companies such as Google in the longer term.

Google, in particular, is concerned it would not be allowed to update its Android operating system on Huawei smartphones, which it argues would prompt the Chinese company to develop its own version of the software, FT reported, citing people briefed on Google's lobbying efforts.

The search giant argued that a Huawei-modified version of Android would be more susceptible to being hacked, the newspaper said.

Senior Google executives have approached the U.S. commerce department asking either for another extension or to be exempted from the ban altogether, FT said.

"Like other US companies, we're engaging with the Department of Commerce to ensure we're in full compliance with its requirements and temporary license. Our focus is on protecting the security of Google users on the millions of existing Huawei handsets in the US and around the world,” Google told FT.

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now I read
China, US too intertwined to ‘break up’ despite trade war, Xi Jinping says in Russia

• President tells forum in St Petersburg he does not want a decoupling from Washington and doubts his ‘friend’ Donald Trump does either
• On efforts to boost global trade, Xi says he wants to be ‘a constructor, not a destroyer’

Updated: 3:24pm, 8 Jun, 2019

Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned against a decoupling of the US and China as trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies continue.

Speaking to businessmen and officials at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on Friday, Xi, sitting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, said he believed disengagement would be dangerous and that his “friend”, US President Donald Trump, would share the same view.

“There are some trade frictions between us and the US, but China and the US are closely intertwined, and we are each other’s biggest investor and trade partner,” he said.

When asked if he thought China’s relationship with the US should be adjusted as globalisation has come under pressure, Xi said: “More than 10,000 people fly between China and the US on a daily basis, which is about 4 million [people] a year.”

“I can hardly imagine a complete decoupling between China and the US. This is not the case that I would like to see, and I don’t think our American friends want to see it, and my friend [Donald] Trump wouldn’t want to see it either.”

It was the first time Xi had openly referred to the US president as a “friend”, while Trump has used the word repeatedly about the Chinese leader as evidence of his success in dealing with Beijing, despite the ongoing trade war.

An almost year-long trade negotiation aimed at resolving the two countries’ disputes collapsed last month, just days before Trump increased the tariff rate on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated by announcing higher tariffs on US$60 billion worth of US imports that came into effect at the start of June.

On Thursday, Trump raised the stakes once more by saying on Twitter that he might consider increasing tariffs on all Chinese goods imported by the US, possibly two weeks after the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan at the end of this month.

Meanwhile, Beijing has intensified its trade war rhetoric against Washington, after the US, citing national security concerns, imposed a supplier ban on Huawei Technologies Co, China’s leading telecommunications equipment firm.

Beijing has also indicated that it could tighten its export controls on rare earths if Washington continued to pile on the pressure.

On Friday, however, Xi took a more conciliatory tone, saying he was committed to seeking a resolution to the trade war and to promoting global trade.

“I want to be a constructor, not a destroyer, and we should respect the things that already exist and do our best to improve them, instead of tearing them down,” he said.

“I don’t want to be a wall builder or a ditch digger, and all I have been doing is to expand my circle of friends.”

Xi’s remarks came amid growing concern that the world economy is on the brink of its worst setback in decades as its two biggest economies continue their tit-for-tat fight on trade, technology and national security.

Meanwhile, Yi Gang, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, is expected to meet US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Japan over the weekend during a two-day gathering of finance leaders from the Group of 20 economies. It will be first face-to-face talks between key trade negotiators from the two countries in nearly a month.

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saw this news on some Czech main-steam news-server yesterday, but didn't notice it even mentioned here:
Exclusive: Facebook suspends app pre-installs on Huawei phones

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Facebook Inc is no longer allowing pre-installation of its apps on Huawei phones, the latest blow for the Chinese tech giant as it struggles to keep its business afloat in the face of a U.S. ban on its purchase of American parts and software.

Customers who already have Huawei phones will still be able to use its apps and receive updates, Facebook told Reuters. But new Huawei phones will no longer be able to have Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram apps pre-installed.

Smartphone vendors often enter business deals to pre-install popular apps such as Facebook. Apps including Twitter and Booking.com also come pre-installed on Huawei phones in many markets. Twitter Inc declined to comment and Booking Holdings did not respond to a request.

The move by Facebook dampens the sales outlook for Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, whose smartphone business became its biggest revenue generator last year, powered by strong growth in Europe and Asia.

Huawei declined to comment.

Alphabet Inc’s Google said earlier that it would no longer provide Android software for Huawei phones after a 90-day reprieve granted by the U.S. government expires in August. But Google’s Playstore and all Google apps will still be available for current models of Huawei phones including those which have not yet shipped or even been built.

The Facebook ban, by contrast, applies to any Huawei phone that has not yet left the factory, according to a person familiar with the matter. Facebook declined to comment on when the suspension took place.

In May, Washington banned U.S. companies from supplying technology to Huawei, part of a long-running campaign against the company. The United States alleges that Huawei is too close to the Chinese government and that its telecom network gear and other products could be a conduit for espionage, which Huawei denies.

Buyers of current Huawei phone models that do not have Facebook pre-installed would still be able to download it from the Google Playstore. Future versions of Huawei phones, however, will not have access to the Google Playstore and its apps unless the U.S. government changes course.

Huawei has said it was prepared for the U.S. action and vowed to work around any disruptions. But some customers at stores in Europe and Asia have told Reuters that they are reluctant to buy Huawei phones in the face of uncertainties, and analysts expect a dramatic drop in Huawei smartphone sales.

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