A reappraisal of China's semiconductor strategy

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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Huawei can continue to use the latest version of the ARM ISA and manufacture its own chips
Although it makes sense for Huawei to move to open architecture such as RISC V

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The final option is an architecture license. Here, ARM would license you one of its architectures (e.g. ARMv7, ARMv8) and you’re free to take that architecture and implement it however you’d like. This is what Qualcomm does to build Krait, and what Apple did to build Swift. These microprocessors are ISA compatible with ARM’s Cortex A15 for example, but they are their own implementations of the ARM ISA. Here you basically get a book and a bunch of tests to verify compliance with the ARM ISA you’re implementing. ARM will offer some support to help you with your design, but it’s ultimately up to you to design, implement and validate your own microprocessor design.

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Finally at the top of the pyramid is an ARM architecture license. Marvell, Apple and Qualcomm are some examples of the 15 companies that have this license.


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the CPU was independently designed by Huawei based on ARMv8 architecture license
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
So reading from the article, I'm getting:

1. ARM licenses knowledge; it does not manufacture anything. So everything done with Huawei or HiSilicon so far is knowledge that is handed to HiSilicon rather than items handed to them that they do not know how to make. In other words, HiSilicon should at least know how to make the chips and understand how to replicate ARM's role for all existing chip designs; it just won't get further help from ARM developing future upgrades. This means that Huawei is at least able to keep making phones that are on its current level and if it wants to advance, it will have to do so without ARM help. Whether it's legal to continue manufacturing using ARM tech is something I do not know, given ARM pulled out but Huawei still owned 51% of the joint venture.

2. Kirin 985 is said to be unaffected because it's already too far along.

3. This took effect on May 16th, before Ren Zhengfei went out with his press conference assuring people that Huawei's high end, especially 5G products would definitely not be affected, so it should be included in his statement.

I'm not a techie so please feel free to correct anything that is wrong.

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"ARM will offer some support to help you with your design, but it’s ultimately up to you to design, implement and validate your own microprocessor design."

That means Huawei has all the design, implementation, and validation know-how they'll need, as they had to do all the legwork themselves for Kirin and Kunpeng anyways. The real bottleneck for Huawei will be with manufacturing (TSMC and all the others will eventually be forced to cut ties to Huawei), not design.

In 2018, ARM transferred IP to an ARM joint venture in China, and then sold 51% of that JV to a Chinese company.

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Any ideas of what IP was transferred to this JV? Because if the Cortex stuff was transferred as part of the deal, Chinese companies could well continue to use it indefinitely, since the consortium that owns 51% is, I believe, one of China's sovereign funds.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I'm certain that the next shoe to drop will be the US barring TSMC from manufacturing for Huawei. If they can compel ARM, they can most certainly compel TSMC - especially that Taiwan depends on America for the survival of its de facto "independence". I'm convinced that it's over for the present incarnation of Huawei; even under the best case scenario it will have to stay on ice for at least a couple of years.

As perverse as this may sound, I welcome this. China has been too complacent both about its capabilities and the ability of the current multilateral system to safeguard its interests. Sooner or later decision-makers are going to adopt some variant of my idea. Then we will see China move with alacrity to the technological frontier.
 
now I read
China offers five-year tax breaks to chip makers, software developers to bolster industry as trade war stretches to tech
  • Semiconductor makers and software companies will be exempt from corporate taxes for two years and their taxes halved in the following three
Updated: 11:20pm, 22 May, 2019
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China will give a five-year tax break to its home-grown semiconductor makers and software developers in a bid to bolster the industries as the trade war shifts to an assault on Chinese technology.

Integrated circuit makers and software companies will be exempt from paying corporate taxes for two years, starting in 2019, and their tax payments will be halved from the 25 per cent universal rate levied on Chinese companies in the following three years, the finance ministry said on its website on Wednesday afternoon.

The announcement comes as the intensifying trade war between China and the US spills over into the technology industry. The Trump administration has put Huawei Technologies, China’s biggest maker of telecommunications equipment, on a blacklist that will ban it from buying American technologies and goods.

The White House is considering cutting off the flow of vital American technology to as many as five Chinese video surveillance companies, including the biggest, Hikvision, and Zhejiang Dahua Technology, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the situation.

China last week imposed retaliatory tariffs on US imports after President Donald Trump had earlier more than doubled duties on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

“The government is acting very quickly this time to support the domestic high-technology industry after Huawei was targeted in the rising trade tension,” said Wu Kan, an investment manager at Soochow Securities in Shanghai. “The megatrend is that China will have to develop its own chips and software on a large scale to reduce its reliance on the US. We’ll see other support measures and that’s big positive news for China’s technology sector in the long turn.”

Investors cheered the move. Gauges tracking Chinese software developers and electronics equipment makers gained at least 0.8 per cent on Wednesday, defying a 0.5 per cent decline on the Shanghai Composite Index. Among them, China National Software and Service jumped by the 10 per cent daily limit in Shanghai, and Gigadevice Semiconductor surged 7.8 per cent.

Under the “Made in China 2025” industrial strategy, chip-making is one of the 10 key sectors in which Beijing hopes its domestic players will catch up with global leaders and become self-sufficient by 2025. China’s microchip industry now heavily counts on imports, with annual imports of semiconductor chips rising 30 per cent over four years to US$260 billion in 2017.

The drive towards self-sufficiency was made more urgent by Trump’s recent ban on the use of telecommunications equipment made by companies deemed a threat to America’s national security, which paved the way for the outright ban on products made by Huawei.

“The technology blockade by the US is escalating and China has to do something in the technology area if it wants to rise as a super power,” said Dai Ming, a fund manager at Hengsheng Asset Management in Shanghai.

Though China leads the world in areas such as fifth-generation wireless networks (5G) and e-commerce, it lags the US in some of the most cutting-edge technologies including chip design and manufacturing. The core components used by some of the country’s biggest tech firms are made by either Intel or Qualcomm, and the operating systems at the heart of their applications are by Google’s Android unit in smartphones, or Microsoft for computers.

The pain was already felt last year when ZTE, a major rival of Huawei, had to pay US$1.4 billion in fines and replace all its board members to end a US sanction against the company.

The Chinese government set up a state fund in 2014 to nurture indigenous technology and acquire foreign patents and designs. The China National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, also called the Big Fund, has already invested in about a dozen companies including Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology and Sanan Optoelectronics.

China’s local governments are in on the act. The Shanghai municipal government said on Tuesday that it will offer tax incentives and funding to support home-grown companies in the integrated circuits, artificial intelligence and biotechnology industries.

The tax breaks for the hi-tech industries are in addition to the policy adopted this year by Beijing to cut value-added taxes on Chinese companies to cushion a slowdown in economic growth.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm certain that the next shoe to drop will be the US barring TSMC from manufacturing for Huawei. If they can compel ARM, they can most certainly compel TSMC - especially that Taiwan depends on America for the survival of its de facto "independence". I'm convinced that it's over for the present incarnation of Huawei; even under the best case scenario it will have to stay on ice for at least a couple of years.

As perverse as this may sound, I welcome this. China has been too complacent both about its capabilities and the ability of the current multilateral system to safeguard its interests. Sooner or later decision-makers are going to adopt some variant of my idea. Then we will see China move with alacrity to the technological frontier.

I think it is too soon to count Huawei out. At some point the Chinese government itself will feel compelled to act, in order to defend the national tech industry.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Here's an interesting point to consider. TSMC's Fabs likely contain US technology, does it mean anything produced by them also cannot be used by Huawei?
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Almost certainly.

I'm guessing that seals the deal then. TSMC says they can still make CPUs for them but we should expect US pressure soon. Even the 5G chips are screwed because it likely requires licenses from US companies as well. US is not willing to embrace 5G because it doesn't need it due to low population density. Thus it wants to cripple China's 5G infrastructure.

In addition, I wonder if there is legal basis to make ARM China wholly independent due to this.
 
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CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm guessing that seals the deal then. TSMC says they can still make CPUs for them but we should expect US pressure soon. Even the 5G chips are screwed because it likely requires licenses from US companies as well. US is not willing to embrace 5G because it doesn't need it due to low population density. Thus it wants to cripple China's 5G infrastructure.

In addition, I wonder if there is legal basis to make ARM China wholly independent due to this.

Arm China is already 51% owned by a Chinese entity so just going by # of seats on board of directors, and voting rights, Arm China already is independent. The bottleneck right now and moving forwards is not design, it's manufacturing. So SMIC and all the others need to get their butts in gear.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
Now now...I am not saying I welcome these moves by US government. I am not implying that China won't be immune to the harm US has done.
At this point...US is indeed "winning".
BUT I'm glad that this has happened. Whenever the Chinese government decides to invest in infrastructure (foreign and domestic), I can't help but feel miserable due to the shoddy foundation of their technology industry. The Chinese were climbing up the ladder BUT the ladder was built in the first place by a foreign nation (USA). It is finally time to make your own ladder.
China has a lot of advantages (and disadvantages). Specifically,when it comes to semiconductors - they have advantages like a good crop of quality engineers, supply of raw materials (rare earths), ease of setting up a supply chain, policy/tax perks, not-so-steep learning curve, a large domestic market to address etc.
Disadvantages include getting cut off from foreign IP and the likes.

It is now or never. This US decision can be made advantageous for China if they place the right bets.
 
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