To address its own and country biggest weakness, Huawei must advance its chip manufacturing.

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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
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But the CCP has chosen not to do this. I don't know the reason though I hope it's not (and I don't think it is) to salvage the relationship with the US. I won't criticize them because I believe they have more information than me in making this decision.
There's an argument to be made in favour of holding off until the results of 2020 come in. If Biden takes it then, although he shares what is now the general American aim of containing China, he might not be willing to toss US companies into the furnace to do it. He'll probably take the TPP/alliance-building route (which suits China just fine, it's what it has been dealing with for the past 30 years).
If Trump wins or if his successor proves as insane, then by all means scorch the Earth.

In all cases, I believe it is now crystal clear to all Chinese policymakers that technological self-sufficiency is now priority #1 through 99. Xi himself has spoken about this on numerous occasions.

I hope that's not the reason. If that's the reason, it would be much better to throw them all out now and have negotiations later on how to reciprocate a re-integration in the economy, and there only.
The CCP is a technocratic government, and it must be responsive to economic conditions and public opinion. Throwing Apple out would put hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers out of work, at the very least. Unlike America, China isn't on its way down and doesn't want to set itself on fire so the flames lick its enemy.
 

styx

Junior Member
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but hitting hard apple (and other dow jones companies) would signify to destabilize financially many american investors. In my opinion china should use a "war without limits" approach with USA
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I hope that's not the reason. If that's the reason, I think it would be much better to throw them all out now and have negotiations later on how to reciprocate a re-integration in the economy, and there only. Tech must be forever independent hereon forth.
You know better than most that Trump is too insane to be deterred or pressured; the satirical post you made about his reaction to an alien death ray illustrates that well. The problem with Trump is that he's playing with house money - he probably cares less about America than Xi Jinping does. All he wants to do is look tough and "win". If the nukes were flying he'd still be going, "We're having a little spat with China, folks, everything's under control. I know we lost the entire West Coast and 95% of our farmland is irradiated, but we're still winning bigly."

The second and deeper problem than his personality disorders is that he's been far too lucky. All throughout his life he's had some deus ex machina come along and pull his bacon out of the fire. What has that taught him? That he'll be fine no matter what he does. Add to that his followers' nihilism, and that he knows it perfectly well when he summed it up as "I can shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and my people would still vote for me."

Getting into a tit-for-tat is not the right way to go about this, despite my earlier comments made in anger. China's aim is first to protect itself and second to use this opportunity to take strategic actions that would otherwise be closed. I don't want to harp on this again, but I keep coming back to the patent invalidation idea. It's a great asymmetric retaliation that would serve China's long-term interests far better than expelling Apple or cutting off rare earths - any company barred from doing business in China now has its patents become eminent domain under Chinese law.

Better than booting Apple, this step is irreversible. Patent lawyers and politicians would know perfectly well that once something becomes public domain, there's no possibility of closing it up again. It's gone forever. The only point of negotiation would be on some symbolic pittance as a compensation and a halt on moving new patents into the public domain.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
You know better than most that Trump is too insane to be deterred or pressured; the satirical post you made about his reaction to an alien death ray illustrates that well. The problem with Trump is that he's playing with house money - he probably cares less about America than Xi Jinping does. All he wants to do is look tough and "win". If the nukes were flying he'd still be going, "We're having a little spat with China, folks, everything's under control. I know we lost the entire West Coast and 95% of our farmland is irradiated, but we're still winning bigly."

The second and deeper problem than his personality disorders is that he's been far too lucky. All throughout his life he's had some deus ex machina come along and pull his bacon out of the fire. What has that taught him? That he'll be fine no matter what he does. Add to that his followers' nihilism, and that he knows it perfectly well when he summed it up as "I can shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and my people would still vote for me."

Getting into a tit-for-tat is not the right way to go about this, despite my earlier comments made in anger. China's aim is first to protect itself and second to use this opportunity to take strategic actions that would otherwise be closed. I don't want to harp on this again, but I keep coming back to the patent invalidation idea. It's a great asymmetric retaliation that would serve China's long-term interests far better than expelling Apple or cutting off rare earths - any company barred from doing business in China now has its patents become eminent domain under Chinese law.

Better than booting Apple, this step is irreversible. Patent lawyers and politicians would know perfectly well that once something becomes public domain, there's no possibility of closing it up again. It's gone forever. The only point of negotiation would be on some symbolic pittance as a compensation and a halt on moving new patents into the public domain.
All suggestions are good amongst us keyboard warriors LOL We're not decision makers.

But I never said to do this in order to deter Trump from escalating. My recommendations were aimed at diminishing American technological presence in China and their ability to earn money off of the Chinese. Of course, they're only good suggestions if the net effect is more harmful to the US than China, which is up to the CCP to calculate, not me.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
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华为“备胎”之不能承受之重
2019-05-18 17:00:21 来源:EETOP
昨天华为透漏备胎计划的消息刷屏了,几乎各大公众号都在转发。很多媒体冠以“热血沸腾”、“美国怕了”… 等令人振奋的标题,顿时全网沸腾。不过冷静下来仔细分析,感觉到要想完全以华为
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替代进口
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并不现实。备胎也有其不能承受之重。
最难以替代的恐怕是:高性能模拟
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、EDA工具软件及操作系统。

高性能模拟及射频
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据IC Insights 最新发布的数据,
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首次进入世界
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厂商TOP15,并且首次超越联发科成为Fabless
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公司的亚洲老大,世界第四。(如图 1)

20190518051325717.jpg

图 1
但是华为
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研发的主要是数字
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,用于华为手机与华为通信设备当中,而模拟
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、射频
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等还要依赖进口,其中很大一部分就来自美国;此前华为公布的92家核心供应商当中就有33家来自美国,占其核心供应商的比例超过三分之一,图2是华为的主要的美国供应商在华为的销售额,排除掉第一名是代工厂的Flex,其他大都是
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供应商,包括Intel, 博通,Tl, ADI, Maxim, AMD,Qorvo,Skyworks等,其中:博通、Tl, ADI, Maxim,Qorvo,Skyworks等提供的主要是模拟器件。


Latest technicak Chinese article points out Huawei only develop digital chip not analog chip and among them is radio frequency chip , huawei buy from skyworks and qorvo.
Huawei also buy high performance analog to digital chip from Texas instrument.
Huawei mostly develop digital CPU chip for cellphone and server

The article points out that the Huawei just announced already backuped plan will come out is trying to calm people.
Once those analog chips stockpile finished, they will be dead in the water.
Their current operation has to scale back and focus on R&D

Their oversea market share will be lost.
Like I said before, Huawei never prepare for trade war, they mostly develop digital CPU to control cost, and have neglect analog chips.

To develop those analog chips, Huawei needs at least 3 years.
 
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gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
There are competitors. For example I think NXP does analog chips.

One good thing is most analog chips are typically done in older processes, which China has plenty of fabs for. As long as they have the fabs, even if they had to do the chips from scratch, in 2-5 years they would be available.

You typically can't do a chip in less than two years because it takes a very long time to produce a chip in a plant. Can easily take 18 months.
 
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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
If China doesn't want to upset US further by banning Intel , Micron, it can suspend it's own Lenovo, the biggest user of US chip.
Cutoff of its own finger to spite the enemy.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
There are competitors. For example I think NXP does analog chips.

One good thing is most analog chips are typically done in older processes, which China has plenty of fabs for. As long as they have the fabs, even if they had to do the chips from scratch, in 2-5 years they would be available.

NXP doesn't have analog radio frequency transceiver chip for cellphone.

NXP mostly have radio frequency identification chip like credit card, key fob, etc

But Huawei does have radio frequency chip for future product like Baloong chip for 5G.
 
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gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
If China doesn't want to upset US further by banning Intel , Micron, it can suspend it's own Lenovo, the biggest user of US chip.
Cutoff of its own finger to spite the enemy.

I think an outright ban is a bad idea. But steep tariffs would be a sensible thing to do.
I don't think Intel needs to be banned, but Micron and Apple easily could be.
Still, like I said, tariffs would work better.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Key spec for Huawei future 5g Balong modem chip.
Balong 5000



Overview:
Balong 5000 is an industry-leading 5G multi-mode chipset that supports 2G, 3G, 4G, and 5G networks on a single chip and ultra-fast 5G rate in the industry. Balong 5000 leads the industry in the 5G peak download rate. It achieves 4.6 Gbps in the Sub-6GHz frequency bands, twice the industry average. It also achieves 6.5 Gbps in the mmWave frequency bands and 7.5Gbps if plus LTE dual connection, 10 times faster than top 4G LTE speeds on the market today.
In addition, Balong 5000 is the world's first chipset to support both standalone (SA, 5G independent networking) and non-standalone (NSA, 5G network deployment on the basis of LTE) networking modes, providing a hardware foundation for enriching 5G application scenarios, and leading the 5G era.
Key features:
2G/3G/4G/5G Multi Mode
Fully compliant with 3GPP Release 15
Sub-6GHz: 100MHz x 2CC CA
Sub-6GHz:Downlink up to 4.6Gbps, Uplink up to 2.5Gbps
mmWave:Downlink up to 6.5Gbps, Uplink up to 3.5Gbps
NR+LTE:Downlink up to 7.5Gbps
FDD & TDD Spectrum Access
SA & NSA Fusion Network Architecture
Supports 3GPP R14 V2X
 
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