It is a setback in US world for sure. But US world is not the globe. Besides China, there are a few countries who want to kill Google in their countries, and many countries have ambitious local competitors. I don't know how representative it is, I have a young colleague from Croatia who avoid using any google service, interesting.
To address its own and country biggest weakness, Huawei must advance its chip manufacturing.
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I have to praise the government's foresight in erecting the Great Firewall and furnishing the space for giants like Tencent and Baidu to flourish under its protection. How deep would the shit China's in be if it didn't have these tech titans on its side?
manqiangrexue
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Right, but if those tricks are legal, they can be pre-loaded by Huawei. If they are NOT then likely the average people will not be able to do them, although the techie community can. The Chinese government can also hire people to anonymously load up and spread on the internet easily-found sources for how to do make your Huawei use Google stuff for people who are in between the techie and average Joe group.
The end result is the same; it's just to see how much global market Huawei can hold onto while it develops its completely indigenous alternative. And even if it's none, the end result is the same again, use proceeds from the Chinese market and support from the Chinese government to develop indigenous software and then promote and re-expand. That second phase won't be fast because a lot of people are used to Google, but once this second phase takes off, it's the final journey, never looking back and never allowing US hardware or software into Huawei (or Chinese) phones again as they dominate the world market.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
My girlfriend often travels between the US and China and every time she travels, she brings a huge suitcase of luxury items back to China and sells them to her friends. I helped get some of them on ebay and I drove her to the outlets to get them because it was incredibly easy money. Last time, she stepped into Coach and was on her Wechat group posting what they had. She bought bags for $70 and sold them for $250 and everything was sold and she was paid all before she even went to Coach's checkout desk. 25 minutes and she made over $800. Her other friend wanted a $450 Gucci belt, so I got her a brand new one on ebay for $190 and she sold it for $450+$36 "tax." Easy easy money and I never wanted a cent of it because it was dirty and I felt guilty.
I just texted her last night and told her we can't do it again. Next time she comes back, they'll be no ebay and no mall trips; she can get want she needs for herself and that's it. If her friends in China need these luxury items, they can pay the tax to the Chinese government that they rightfully owe and the government can use that cash to fund China's technological development.
This is going to totally destroy Huawei's overseas sales, it will limit the phone to strictly Mainland China.
China will in time, actually sooner rather than later, replace the foreign supply chain with mostly domestic ones, and when it demonstrates high tech capabilities in a large variety of sectors very comparable to the US and its Allies, US companies will want in on China's domestic market, but they will largely be banned. There will then be gnashing of teeth and cursing of Donald Trump to High Heaven.
China should work on replacing a large share of the US market for its exports with the domestic and other foreign markets.
Among the lessons to learned from this are that 1) China should be largely self reliant in high tech capabilities, 2) China should significantly reduce the share of exports as a share of its GDP.
That way, trade wars will have a much lesser effect.
Not only that, but China needs to significantly boost its innovation rapidly. Only when China produces enough unique IP, technology, apps that are very attractive to global consumers, will it have enough power. Currently, the US holds most of the cards. By withdrawing the supply chain and Google products, it can destroy most Chinese high tech firms.
China will be hurt, but not crippled. China will ultimately succeed and reshape its economy accordingly. It is still a HUGE market and will eventually become the world's largest market. China will certainly NOT forget, and probably also NOT forgive the United States any time soon. There is much bipartisanship on imposing an embargo on China. In the future, when the Americans seek to withdraw their self imposed restrictions on trade with China in reaction to the fact that China's demonstrated much high tech competency, China itself will make it a policy to continue the American embargo.
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