To address its own and country biggest weakness, Huawei must advance its chip manufacturing.

tower9 · May 18, 2019

phynex92 said:
I honestly can't tell if you're trolling or being serious. If you have nothing concrete to offer to the discussion, I think you should stop spamming these unsubstantiated claims.

I am not trolling. I'm bluntly describing what is happening.

The fact is, Trump knows that China has a lot more to lose than the US. He is probing China for weakness and is encouraged to escalate the bullying because China's response has been so weak.

See how he dealt with Mexico. He knew Mexico was weak and utterly dependent on the US. He humiliated Mexico's president consistently and insulted the Mexican people. He paid them no respect and bullied them mercilessly until they signed a new NAFTA deal that basically gave in to all of his demands because they had no choice.

With China, he was far more careful because China is a much more powerful country. He started out feting Xi Jinping at his mansion. Spoke lovingly of their relationship, talked of his great respect. Then after Xi gave him what he wanted with North Korea, the tariffs started. He started out with smaller tariffs, then they gradually got heavier, then he attacked ZTE, started to escalate against Huawei, and now with actively cutting off Huawei from its suppliers, he has essentially declared war on China's economy.

This would be like if China suddenly cut off Apple's supply chain and tried to destroy one of the largest corporations in America, how do you think the US would react? Talk about Win Win?

phynex92 · May 18, 2019

tower9 said:
I am not trolling. I'm bluntly describing what is happening.

The fact is, Trump knows that China has a lot more to lose than the US. He is probing China for weakness and is encouraged to escalate the bullying because China's response has been so weak.

See how he dealt with Mexico. He knew Mexico was weak and utterly dependent on the US. He humiliated Mexico's president consistently and insulted the Mexican people. He paid them no respect and bullied them mercilessly until they signed a new NAFTA deal that basically gave in to all of his demands because they had no choice.

With China, he was far more careful because China is a much more powerful country. He started out feting Xi Jinping at his mansion. Spoke lovingly of their relationship, talked of his great respect. Then after Xi gave him what he wanted with North Korea, the tariffs started. He started out with smaller tariffs, then they gradually got heavier, then he attacked ZTE, started to escalate against Huawei, and now with actively cutting off Huawei from its suppliers, he has essentially declared war on China's economy.

This would be like if China suddenly cut off Apple's supply chain and tried to destroy one of the largest corporations in America, how do you think the US would react? Talk about Win Win?

Then what do you suggest China do? Ban Apple from selling iPhones in China? Declare war? Cut off all ties with the rest of the world? That's what the Qing and Ming dynasties did and look where they are now. Other than causing massive unemployment and outflow of foreign capital, what purpose do they do for the Chinese people? China's best option right now is to contain the damage and find alternatives. A responsible government puts the interests of its people first, not personal fame or gain which unfortunately is becoming the norm for many Western governments.

Xizor · May 18, 2019

phynex92 said:
Then what do you suggest China do? Ban Apple from selling iPhones in China? Declare war? Cut off all ties with the rest of the world? That's what the Qing and Ming dynasties did and look where they are now. Other than causing massive unemployment and outflow of foreign capital, what purpose do they do for the Chinese people? China's best option right now is to contain the damage and find alternatives. A responsible government puts the interests of its people first, not personal fame or gain which unfortunately is becoming the norm for many Western governments.

@phynex92 You nailed it. China's CPC must care about the poor workers. Sure they had to show a blind eye to lax security and health detriment of these workers in the many factories doing basic assembly jobs BUT unemployment was brought down and many were able to feed themselves. Securing their employment is priority than 5G. Huawei may roll out the 5G later . Maybe after 5 years. That isn't a bad thing. There are pockets within US that still struggles to get a good 3G signal (although it has been decreasing).
The point being that 5G can wait. China should try to minimize the damage and provide funds for Huawei and others to mitigate the immediate threats and go for a long term plan to secure vertical integration. It may be out there in 2023 or even 2025. But thi decision of US, however cruel or sinister may be , is actually a boon. China has to concentrate on high tech products. A threat to their telecom network makes this a national security and national emergency issue.

manqiangrexue · May 18, 2019

tower9 said:
No one's walked out of trade talks yet. It's all still up in there. Currently the US punching China hard with no recourse. That's what's happening.

They're punching a wall or swinging at air. Once again, I look at results, not the noise. Trump says he's the best negotiator but he can't get China to sign. So he failed; that's it. Results. Insulting the other side and losing the deal isn't punching anybody; it's wasting time. As long as China's still growing faster than the US, the punches aren't hitting.

Like you said, he's not trying to piss people off; he's trying to stop China from growing. I don't know what punches or rape or balls/guts or all that nonsense means. I just know success, objective achieved, or failure, objective lost.

Hendrik_2000 · May 18, 2019

tower9 said:
I think you misunderstood me. China's development is largely due to China's own efforts. China focused on development like a maniac, while the US self-sabotaged itself by its lack of focus and distractions in the Middle East.

What I am referring to when I am talking about relative benefits is strictly limited to the US-China relationship. Look, if you compare what both gained from the relationship, China's gains has VASTLY outnumbered America's gains. Of course, China's cheap labor and markets have tremendously benefited American corporations. As far as the American people and the relative power of the US? Not so much. If you do not understand this, you won't understand why Trump's message is so powerful or why he still has so much support even though he acts like a maniac.

China has DEEPLY benefited from its interactions with the US. China 40 years ago was a backward, communist, hell hole. Today it is the second superpower. Tell me, what has the US learned from China compared to what China has learned from the US? Literally China has taught the US NOTHING, while the US has taught China a MAJORITY of what it needed to develop. Where will China be today if it weren't for the millions of Chinese educated in MIT, Harvard, Yale, Stanford, UC Berkeley, UCLA, Cal Tech, etc etc?

If the US never engaged with China, it's GDP will be smaller, it's corporations wouldn't be as rich, but relatively it will still be unchallengeable. It will also have more of its industrial supply chain at home.

You can dislike what I'm saying, but you know it's the truth.

IO think you read too much of MSM propaganda and does not support by fact
I don't buy this The largest investor in China 5 years in row is Singapore and overseas Chinese US investment in China is minuscule heck they come late and they even blockade China after TAM
If you look into who invest in China during the 60's,70s,80.s most of the investor are overseas Chinese from Taiwan, Hongkong, Singapore, Thailand , Malaysia
No China does not learn from US only there are tons of Chinese students who went to school in Europe or Japan

China does not send their government official to US to learn the art of government but China did send 30000 government official to Singapore prompting one of the vice premier to said that what Singapore did is priceless
During the eraly years of reform Singapore send dozen if not hundred of ex Singapore government official to help China set the SEZ that become the precursor of reform

tower9 · May 18, 2019

phynex92 said:
Then what do you suggest China do? Ban Apple from selling iPhones in China? Declare war? Cut off all ties with the rest of the world? That's what the Qing and Ming dynasties did and look where they are now. Other than causing massive unemployment and outflow of foreign capital, what purpose do they do for the Chinese people? China's best option right now is to contain the damage and find alternatives. A responsible government puts the interests of its people first, not personal fame or gain which unfortunately is becoming the norm for many Western governments.

I think the government can hit Boeing. That's probably a major move where they have an alternative. Say they will be procuring nothing but Airbus and sinking more funds into developing Comac in the foreseeable future. Hitting Apple doesn't make sense economically.

tower9 · May 18, 2019

Hendrik_2000 said:
IO think you read too much of MSM propaganda and does not support by fact
I don't buy this The largest investor in China 5 years in row is Singapore and overseas Chinese US investment in China is minuscule heck they come late and they even blockade China after TAM
If you look into who invest in China during the 60's,70s,80.s most of the investor are overseas Chinese from Taiwan, Hongkong, Singapore, Thailand , Malaysia
No China does not learn from US only there are tons of Chinese students who went to school in Europe or Japan

China does not send their government official to US to learn the art of government but China did send 30000 government official to Singapore prompting one of the vice premier to said that what Singapore did is priceless
During the eraly years of reform Singapore send dozen if not hundred of ex Singapore government official to help China set the SEZ that become the precursor of reform

Again, I never said the US was the main reason why China developed. I was only comparing who benefited more from the bilateral relationship.

gelgoog · May 18, 2019

tower9 said:
I think the government can hit Boeing. That's probably a major move where they have an alternative. Say they will be procuring nothing but Airbus and sinking more funds into developing Comac in the foreseeable future. Hitting Apple doesn't make sense economically.

I can understand them hitting Apple first, because if you hit the US airspace industry they'll probably hit Comac back. The C919 uses a lot of foreign technology. I hope the import substitution for those components is also in progress.

The Russians had problems with the MC-21 recently because of US sanctions just as the aircraft was in the middle of the testing stage.

tower9 · May 18, 2019

manqiangrexue said:
They're punching a wall or swinging at air. Once again, I look at results, not the noise. Trump says he's the best negotiator but he can't get China to sign. So he failed; that's it. Results. Insulting the other side and losing the deal isn't punching anybody; it's wasting time. As long as China's still growing faster than the US, the punches aren't hitting.

Like you said, he's not trying to piss people off; he's trying to stop China from growing. I don't know what punches or rape or balls/guts or all that nonsense means. I just know success, objective achieved, or failure, objective lost.

I think at this point, it's pretty clear that he's not even wanting a trade deal, he wants decoupling. The only trade deal he will accept is one where China is basically a semi-colony. Otherwise, he is pushing decoupling. Even if China signs a humiliating trade deal, he'd still hit China with bans similar to how he hit Huawei. So basically China has no incentive to sign a trade deal.

Listen to what Steve Bannon is saying, and you'll understand what Trump is thinking right now.

manqiangrexue · May 18, 2019

tower9 said:
I think at this point, it's pretty clear that he's not even wanting a trade deal, he wants decoupling. The only trade deal he will accept is one where China is basically a semi-colony. Otherwise, he is pushing decoupling. Even if China signs a humiliating trade deal, he'd still hit China with bans similar to how he hit Huawei. So basically China has no incentive to sign a trade deal.

Listen to what Steve Bannon is saying, and you'll understand what Trump is thinking right now.

I understand everything they're thinking; we're on the same page. I don't understand what you're thinking, talking about rape and punches and bending over nonsense when we have not seen any success for the US administration holding back Chinese growth.

To address its own and country biggest weakness, Huawei must advance its chip manufacturing.

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