To address its own and country biggest weakness, Huawei must advance its chip manufacturing.

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Weaasel

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Registered Member
I would be extremely surprised if China is able to reproduce the complete supply chain for these banned components within two years. I would be EXTREMELY surprised. These are very established companies that supply these components and there is a massive number of different components that need to be supplied, in addition to producing the equipment, operating systems, manufacturing practices that go into them.

This move against Huawei is no less than a declaration of war. If China does not mobilize it's entire society to reproduce these supply chains and protect its companies, then it does not deserve to compete.
China does not have a choice but to to do that. Two years obviously is not likely, but 5 to 7 years, for the majority of the supply chain of goods demanded by China to be relocated locally, that is definitely doable.

China at very least has to show significant capabilities of being a able to produce a wide range of high tech products comparable in quality to suppliers from the US Alliance. This will make them likely resist US pressures that ate being placed on them not to sell high tech goods to China.

Make no mistake, the United States wants ALL its allies, which is essentially EVERY EU country, Japan, and South Korea to replicate the ban that the US has done to China. They are ALL highly susceptible to such pressure from the US. As such China has to actually aim for and demonstrate that it has the capability of replacing the entire supply chain domestically.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I would be extremely surprised if China is able to reproduce the complete supply chain for these banned components within two years. I would be EXTREMELY surprised. These are very established companies that supply these components and there is a massive number of different components that need to be supplied, in addition to producing the equipment, operating systems, manufacturing practices that go into them.

This move against Huawei is no less than a declaration of war. If China does not mobilize it's entire society to reproduce these supply chains and protect its companies, then it does not deserve to compete.
Are you a tech person? If so, then I have a few questions. Although it is extremely unlikely (maybe even impossible) that the Chinese have these components ready to the exact par of their very well-established Western rivals, how probable do you feel that they can make these components quickly to a standard that is high enough not to seriously or noticeably affect the usability of the final product? If not very likely at all, how much of a diminished capability are we looking at? Unusable/non-competitive? Par with rivals? Slightly diminished but still superior? Or barely noticeable decline? We're talking final product and certainly odd strategies like using multiple components to sub for 1 can be used.

It's probably a super-hard question; I know.

Honestly if you look at things from a nationalist point of view, the US doesn't have any incentive to cooperate with China. One can argue that American relations with China over the past four decades ever since it was normalized has largely only benefited China and not the US. Let's look at the facts, millions of Chinese were educated in top notch US universities, millions of Chinese have learned modern corporate practices working in US companies, living in the US, China has learned rapidly from US technology, access to the US market, foreign investment, US practices, etc.

What has the US gained? Other than improving the bottom line of some US corporations and cheap products for the US consumer, really not much of anything. I guess that was enough for prior administrations which were controlled by corporate America, they were only beholden to their bottom line and quarterly report, but US-China relations has largely been a disaster for the US strategically. The US has actually suffered greatly in that it's relative strength to China has declined significantly.

It's illogical for the US to continue subsidizing a rival state that is independent, beyond its control and able to subvert American power. It's actually not just illogical, it is suicide, but that's exactly what the US has been doing for at least the last two decades ever since China started to emerge as a serious competitor.

So my point is that what Trump is currently doing is not nice, he's being a complete asshole, but guess what? It's actually the most logical thing that a US president has done in a long long time. What is NOT logical is for the US to continue to cooperate with China like it is a partner. The US has largely only lost in its relationship with China, while China has gained tremendously. Four decades ago, the US was on top of the world, it was a mega power economically, financially and with the USSR only a poor rival militarily. China was a peasant economy. Think about it.

So if China wants to get to the top, it needs to accept that the US has woken up and will stop subsidizing a rival state. China's going to have to fight and claw for that No. 1 position if it wants it.

Will see what happens from here. But I can guarantee you, it will only get worse from here.
You don't have to tell me that. I see you're new but if you've been lurking for a while before posting, you'd see I'm the last guy who would have fantasies of China and the US cooperating. I don't even advocate friendly relations between the two cus they would be fake LOL You just caught me at an awkward time where I had to say that it is stupid for China to think it can displace the US as a superpower using purchased components and it would be even more stupid for the US to let that happen. China needs to master all of these foundational technologies and then take them to heights the US cannot reach (as quickly) before it can be technological king.
 

tower9

New Member
Registered Member
China does not have a choice but to to do that. Two years obviously is not likely, but 5 to 7 years, for the majority of the supply chain of goods demanded by China to be relocated locally, that is definitely doable.

China at very least has to show significant capabilities of being a able to produce a wide range of high tech products comparable in quality to suppliers from the US Alliance. This will make them likely resist US pressures that ate being placed on them not to sell high tech goods to China.

Make no mistake, the United States wants ALL its allies, which is essentially EVERY EU country, Japan, and South Korea to replicate the ban that the US has done to China. They are ALL highly susceptible to such pressure from the US. As such China has to actually aim for and demonstrate that it has the capability of replacing the entire supply chain domestically.

Absolutely. No doubt about it. Trump's goal is not to get a trade deal with China, his ultimate goal is to isolate China and force it back into the backwardness that it came from, so that the US can retain its hegemony.

5-7 years. Yeah, China doesn't have that much time. It has 1-2 years tops. This is why Trump is doing this right now, he knows he's running out of time, that the balance of power is shifting. He knows that if the US doesn't do this now, in ten years, it will be China dictating things to the US, and that is not acceptable.

These are the facts. China has 1-2 years to replicate all US components, or it will suffer a massive setback. What we've seen so far is nothing in comparison. In fact, if Trump does win a second term, you can bet things will get even hotter including expelling Chinese diplomats, further pressure on allies to cut ties with China, recognizing an independent Taiwan, all of those things are on the table. If Trump wins a second term, you ain't seen nothing yet, I will guarantee you.
 

tower9

New Member
Registered Member
Are you a tech person? If so, then I have a few questions. Although it is extremely unlikely (maybe even impossible) that the Chinese have these components ready to the exact par of their very well-established Western rivals, how probable do you feel that they can make these components quickly to a standard that is high enough not to seriously or noticeably affect the usability of the final product? If not very likely at all, how much of a diminished capability are we looking at? Unusable/non-competitive? Par with rivals? Slightly diminished but still superior? Or barely noticeable decline? We're talking final product and certainly odd strategies like using multiple components to sub for 1 can be used.

It's probably a super-hard question; I know.


You don't have to tell me that. I see you're new but if you've been lurking for a while before posting, you'd see I'm the last guy who would have fantasies of China and the US cooperating. I don't even advocate friendly relations between the two cus they would be fake LOL You just caught me at an awkward time where I had to say that it is stupid for China to think it can displace the US as a superpower using purchased components and it would be even more stupid for the US to let that happen. China needs to master all of these foundational technologies and then take them to heights the US cannot reach (as quickly) before it can be technological king.

No, I've been generally agreeing with what you're saying. I think we are on the same page.

Sometimes I see Chinese members complaining about how the US is treating them unfair. Well, does the US owe China anything? Is the US supposed to continue subsidizing a rival state to usurp it's throne? These people need to get real.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Becoming No. 2 is not acceptable to the American psyche. The US has been dominant for a very long time. Five generations of Americans have grown up with the notion that the US is the best and most powerful country.

Does China think it can really just cruise into No. 1 status without a fight? Yes, and you better believe that the US is willing to get hurt to prevent China from taking its spot.

Really, what should be surprising is that it took so long for a Trump to get into office and pull these antics. The prior American presidents were sleeping on the job. The real question now is, what is China going to do about it? The cooperative relationship coming from the US is over, now the US is focused on making sure China never takes its place. What is China going to do about it? I guess we will see.

Of course Trump and other US Nationalist are going to fight and probably do everything to slow China short of an 'ACTUAL' war. But China has time and demographics, in terms of the labour and ever quickly increasing improvement in the quality of skilled labour on its side. China will eventually become the world's preeminent economic power and will remain like that for A LONG LONG time. After Xi, one will likely see the scale back considerably of China's globalist ambitions. There is much opposition within China to becoming a global policeman. Not that Xi Jinping is exactly that, but he is definitely a lot bolder and more interventionist than any of his predecessors since 1978.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
What do you guys think happened? US tech companies lobbied hard saying they'd go bankrupt? Maybe Huawei's letter spooked them into thinking that if they don't resupply these parts fast, China's back-ups are ready to take off and never look back? It's certainly not the stated reason as the US would love to make Huawei leave its customers high and dry and losing trust in it...

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Exclusive - U.S. may scale back Huawei trade restrictions to help existing customers
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By Karen Freifeld
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•May 18, 2019
 

tower9

New Member
Registered Member
Of course Trump and other US Nationalist are going to fight and probably do everything to slow China short of an 'ACTUAL' war. But China has time and demographics, in terms of the labour and ever quickly increasing improvement in the quality of skilled labour on its side. China will eventually become the world's preeminent economic power and will remain like that for A LONG LONG time. After Xi, one will likely see the scale back considerably of China's globalist ambitions. There is much opposition within China to becoming a global policeman. Not that Xi Jinping is exactly that, but he is definitely a lot bolder and more interventionist than any of his predecessors since 1978.

I agree with all that. If China is able to surpass the US, it will run away with it.

Trump is probably the first US president to clearly understand this. Prior US presidents treated China with a benign arrogance, and lectured China like it was a misbehaving child.

Trump really doesn't care about human rights or none of that nonsense. He's the first president to see China as an actual equal, a competent rival state. That is why he's lashing out in a last ditch effort to save US hegemony. If the US doesn't do everything it can to stop China now, it will lose its dominance FOREVER. The US has a window of about 5-10 years. If China continues to grow and surpass the US after that, it's GAME OVER. Trump knows this, that's why it will only get worse from here.
 

tower9

New Member
Registered Member
What do you guys think happened? US tech companies lobbied hard saying they'd go bankrupt? Maybe Huawei's letter spooked them into thinking that if they don't resupply these parts fast, China's back-ups are ready to take off and never look back? It's certainly not the stated reason as the US would love to make Huawei leaving its customers high and dry and losing trust in it...

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Exclusive - U.S. may scale back Huawei trade restrictions to help existing customers
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By Karen Freifeld
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•May 18, 2019

The scale back doesn't impact what is hurting Huawei. The scale back only allows past customers of Huawei, including some rural areas, to continue to get replacement parts for their Huawei products in the mean time. It doesn't reverse the ban on Huawei getting new components from the US.

So it doesn't change anything. If China, and Huawei, is unable to replicate the US portion of their supply chain within the next 1-2 years, it will be screwed.
 

tower9

New Member
Registered Member
Anyways, I think the ban on Huawei is just the start. If China doesn't capitulate and humiliate itself in a self-harming trade deal with the US that will be a second Plaza Accord, expect complete US bans for China's entire high tech industry, including ban on the sales of robotics, chips, components, that will bring China's manufacturing and tech industries to a crash.

It will hurt the bottom line of these US companies, but the pain will be nothing compared to what China will feel, and that is Trump's ultimate desire. It will give the US some time to retain its hegemony.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
@tower9 I'm going a bit off-topic here but it is a lie that only China earned out of the relationship. The whole point of the US granting those conditions to China in the first place was to isolate the Soviet Union. Only later did it become about increasing corporate America's profits via globalization. As for why the average US citizen profited less from it, there was also abject poverty in Victorian England at the height of the Empire. An Empire is not just necessarily bad for foreign countries. It can treat its own citizens quite miserably. US citizens live in those conditions precisely because of the huge resources funneled into the tools of Empire like foreign wars, rather than investing in its own people.

There are plenty of other countries with similar economic relations with the US, yet why did China rise to this degree while many others failed? Take South America. It is a basket case. You can't ignore the tremendous amount of resources and drive the Chinese put to get to their current position.

Of course as China's economy grew it was rather obvious they would lose some of the favorable trading conditions they had. This should have started happening over a decade ago I think. But what the Trump administration is doing is trying to shackle China into a position of subservience towards the US rather than treating it on an equitable basis.
The way the US is going about it was always going to face friction against China because of their experience with the unequal treaties and how that period is perceived in China. China is not willing to be put into a position of subservience. Nor will they allow the country to be fractured like what happened to the Soviet Union. China would rather put itself into abject poverty first. That's why Xi was put into power with an unlimited term.
 
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