To address its own and country biggest weakness, Huawei must advance its chip manufacturing.

Status
Not open for further replies.

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Wrong.
To completely destroy China without concern for US tech companies in China is Steve Bannon.
Lighthizer wants US tech companies leadership in China in future.

Trump doesn't care neither, he just want reelection. Stock market down, economy down means no reelection.

He will back up if it help him to win reelection.

Simple as that.
OK, you think I'm wrong because of your imagination.

I think you're wrong because history says Trump has never responded in the way you imagined. 2-3 other members here also think you're wrong based on that reason (and the other ones I've provided). Nobody thinks you're right.

We can leave the summary at that.
 
Last edited:

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
OK, you think I'm wrong because of your imagination.

I think you're wrong because history says Trump has never responded in the way you imagined. 2-3 other members here also think you're wrong based on that reason. Nobody thinks you're right.

We can leave the summary at that.

Lol, you wants Bannon idea winning by numbers, winning of abominables, populus movement.

I will give you that one if you think that's winning.

NK just tested some weapon in defiance of Trump, Trump says no big deal NK still wants a deal in future.

Maduro just crushed opposition and in defiance of Trump, Trump can't do anything.

A con man will back down.
 
Last edited:

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
NK just tested some weapon in defiance of Trump, Trump says no big deal NK still wants a deal in future.

Maduro just crushed opposition and in defiance of Trump, Trump can't do anything.

A con man will back down.
Yeah, he can't do anything but he didn't back down either. He simply didn't escalate further and is just deadlocked with no results. That's what I've been telling you for the longest time! Results determine success, not aggression! I'm telling you that Trump is extremely aggressive but not at all successful. You can defeat him and make his aggression stupid and worthless, but you can't back him down. Your examples here reinforce that notion perfectly.

But your argument is that China should ban Intel to back Trump down, and that's not going to, nor has it ever, happened.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yeah, he can't do anything but he didn't back down either. He simply didn't escalate further and is just deadlocked with no results. That's what I've been telling you for the longest time! Results determine success, not aggression! I'm telling you that Trump is extremely aggressive but not at all successful. You can defeat him and make his aggression stupid and worthless, but you can't back him down. Your examples here reinforce that notion perfectly.

But your argument is that China should ban Intel to back Trump down, and that's not going to, nor has it ever, happened.

Banning of Intel is a free play, worst case even if he doesn't back down on huawei, it will hurt US long term. It's called get even. No sure if you understand that concept

What you waiting for??
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
China might want to ban companies like Nike, Adidas, Caterpillar and GM motors... if at all it intents to ban any company. Intel ban would be myopic. Intel is ready to invest in fabs and research centers in the coming decade to cater to a booming server demand and cloud service demand. These investments are high quality , high yield investments for the Chinese.
 
Last edited:

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
China might want to ban companies like Nike, Adidas, Caterpillar and GM motors... if at all it intents to ban any company. Intel ban would be myopic. Intel is ready to invest in fabs and research centers in the coming decade to cater to a booming server demand and cloud service demand. These investments are high quality , high yield investments for the Chinese.
A nand fab in Dalian , similar to Samsung and hynix. Further stymie China domestic nand product by YMTC. It's not a fab make processor for Chinese market. It not willing to do it.
Intel is the biggest Semiconductor earner in China market.

Intel just backed out its 5G modem joint venture with unisoc due to current US political climate

You want to hit intel and other US Semiconductor firms because they are in Lighthizer's calculus. Not Nike, Catipella, Starbuck, MacDonald, KFC of that ilks.
 
Last edited:

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Banning of Intel is a free play, worst case even if he doesn't back down on huawei, it will hurt US long term. It's called get even. No sure if you understand that concept

What you waiting for??
What am I waiting for? LOL I'm not the one making the call. If I was, I would be waiting for all the relevant information. I would ask my agents to gather all relevant data and feedback on which Chinese companies currently rely on Intel, whether they have or are working on alternatives, how long they estimate before they can be weened, and whether there are companies that are in the process of siphoning some valuable tech from Intel that would be disrupted by a ban. I would call for that information on many many US companies in China and when the data and expert opinions are all in, I would summon my board to finally make decisions on which ones to take to the chopping block, which ones to scrape a little off of, and which ones to leave alone for now. I would never act rashly to "get even" without fully understanding the consequences of the actions I'm about to take. That's called strategy, not sure if you understand the concept.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
A nand fab in Dalian , similar to Samsung and hynix. Further stymie China domestic nand product by YMTC. It's not a fab make processor for Chinese market. It not willing to do it.
Intel is the biggest Semiconductor earner in China market.
I told you about this some time ago and am ready to restate my view again. You are right in the logical assumption that Chinese competitors would face disadvantages due to Intel setting up its own plants. You are right in believing that Taiwanese and south Korean investments are going to halt the rise of domestic companies.
Now, even if Intel tried to hide a huge chunk of the secrets from falling into the hands of Chinese or Intel only hired Chinese engineers that too for filling lower posts - even then, the mere existence and investment in the plant is going to be ultimately of benefit to China. China will get a crop of technicians or engineers who do know some thing regarding standing in a clean room and doing robot work of operating lithography machines or some skill in specific applications. It could be operating software, analysis faults, checking for impurities etc. Imagine how difficult it would be for domestic Chinese competitors to create a work culture that strives to obtain the operational efficiency and standards as that of Intel. The engineers who work in these foreign fabs are eventually going to drop out of them to create their own enterprises or they are going to get poached by chinese competitors. They are not going to rush to Korea or Japan or Taiwan as greener pastures are there in their own backyard.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Chinese government doesn't know how to fight.
In my POV, if China today announces banning of Intel in China, tommorrow US will take Huawei off the ban list.
Simple as that, but it has No guts, alright i am not going to use word balls because some members feel uneasy about it.

It makes no sense to ban Intel IMHO. What they could do is start imposing steep tariffs (more than 25%) on all US telecoms company products including Cisco and Apple products sold in China. They should also impose lighter tariffs on US origin semiconductor chips to speed up the move to alternative chip sources.

If anything Trump tariffs provide China with the perfect justification to impose their own counter tariffs on electronic products and speed up China 2025. China will be able to do in 5 years what would otherwise have taken them 10 years I think.

If China ever wants to bring in the big guns the largest target is Boeing not Intel. They should demand Boeing move more production to China or else cut orders. Are there any airline companies in China which aren't state owned even? China can do that quite trivially and cut all orders to zero in one minute. Each airplane is worth many, many smartphones.

I think Trump is being really dumb here. It is one thing to ban sale of Huawei in the US, quite another to try to actively kill the company. He thinks because of what happened with ZTE that he can do the same thing again. But Huawei is not ZTE.
 
Last edited:

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Well they better speed up the 7nm Fab construction a storm is brewing. they have 1 year to come up with a plan Depending on TSMC is not realistic
It is Deja Vu again the pacific war was precipitate by oil embargo forcing Japan to invade SEA
Huawei and suppliers dust off backup plans to prepare for storm
Asian chipmakers TSMC, Toshiba Memory and Innolux assess US ban
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

CHENG TING-FANG, LAULY LI, RURIKA IMAHASHI and ALEX FANG, Nikkei staff writersMAY 18, 2019 03:52 JST
https%3A%2F%2Fs3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com%2Fpsh-ex-ftnikkei-3937bb4%2Fimages%2F5%2F9%2F7%2F6%2F20816795-1-eng-GB%2F0522619.jpg

Huawei urged suppliers to keep making deliveries despite new U.S. measures that could block its access to key American technologies. (Nikkei montage/Getty Images)
TAIPEI/TOKYO/NEW YORK -- Huawei Technologies is asking its top Asian chipmakers to maintain deliveries after Washington announced draconian measures to curb the Chinese telecommunications giant's access to American technology, sources familiar with the matter said.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, the most important chip producer for Huawei's mobile and networking core processors, said it will maintain supplies for the time being even though it continues to assess the impact of Washington's decision this week to bar Huawei from receiving U.S. technologies.


"We have established a complicated and sophisticated export control compliance system," TSMC spokesperson Elizabeth Sun said. "Based upon the data in the system we are not changing our shipping practice for the time being."

But the Taiwanese chip titan hinted that it could suspend supplies if ongoing reviews lead it to a different conclusion.

The U.S. Department of Commerce said Thursday that it would add Huawei to its Entity List, meaning that the sale or transfer of American technology to the company will require a license, with a presumption of denial. The Trump administration's move strikes at the heart of the ambitions of the Chinese company, which relies heavily on chips and other key components using U.S. technologies.

Toshiba Memory, the world's second-largest NAND flash memory chip supplier, declined to say whether its products contain American technologies as it studies the details of the U.S. regulation.

Display panel maker
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, which supplies screens for Huawei smartphones, tablets and notebook computers, said it will talk to Huawei.

"Our executives have discussed it and we think it will have an impact based on our preliminary evaluation, but it is hard to determine the scope of the impact as of now," an Innolux spokesperson said. The Taiwan-based company said its shipping schedule for Huawei currently remains unchanged.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
also expressed uncertainty about the impact of the U.S. move to restrict exports to Huawei.

Key American chip suppliers such as Qualcomm and Qorvo had suspended shipments Friday, a source familiar with the matter said, while other U.S. companies are set to follow suit as the restrictions take effect, according to lawyers and industry sources. Most Asian suppliers, including TSMC, Foxconn, Japan Display and Toshiba Memory, are carefully reviewing whether they could be running afoul of American regulations by using such American technologies as software, intellectual property, tools and materials.

Kevin Wolf, a former U.S. assistant secretary of commerce who is now a partner at the Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld law firm in Washington, said anything made in America, and anything of foreign origin that contains a significant percentage of controlled U.S. content, falls within the scope of the rules.

"Whether it's telecom equipment, a toothbrush [or] a product plant," it would require a license to be sold to Huawei, Wolf said.

"The scope of a listing is exports to Huawei directly or indirectly," he said. "That would be how you would prohibit the sale to Company X supplying that content to a Huawei company."

Huawei had attempted to prepare for the worst by
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, the Nikkei Asian Review has reported. But the company did not expect the restrictions to also cover all foreign suppliers that indirectly use a certain amount of U.S. technologies to build products for it. This caught the Chinese company off-guard, people familiar with the matter said.

President Teresa He Tingbo of Huawei unit HiSilicon Technologies, China's top chip developer, said Huawei is in a battle to survive after its "darkest day" in an open letter early Friday. "The global superpower has ruthlessly made this decision to abruptly sever global technology partnerships and supply chains for no reason," she wrote.


"We actually have foreseen this day for many years, and we do have a backup plan," the letter said.

HiSilicon designs core processor chips for mobile and networking equipment and also builds 5G modems. Huawei's investment in chip design dates back a decade, and the company is far more self-reliant than smaller peer
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, which was forced to temporarily halt operations when American technology exports to it were blocked last year. But Huawei needs TSMC's advanced chip plants to turn its designs into reality. Currently, only
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, Intel and TSMC have such advanced fabs to produce chips that Huawei and Apple need
for their latest smartphones. But Samsung and Intel build chips largely for themselves, not others.

If TSMC cuts off supplies, "Huawei's business could come to a halt and be in trouble," said Mark Li, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein.

The company also contacted suppliers in Asia to keep them from abandoning it. "We do receive calls from Huawei to assure us that it will continue placing orders and to assure us that they have enough technology to deal with the storm," a chip industry executive said.

But many market watchers still doubt whether Huawei can survive and ship all its products on schedule in these severe conditions.

"If the U.S. controls the use of Google's Android system on Huawei smartphones, then this could be a killing blow to the company," said Liang Yaguang of global market research firm Kantar Worldpanel in Beijing. While Huawei has started developing its own operating system, it may be years before its software has sufficiently matured to replace Android, the analyst said.

Bernstein's Li also doubts that Huawei can still ship products smoothly once U.S. software and technical support are cut off.

If Huawei falls into chaos and cannot deliver products, "it would be a big disruption for the whole supply chain," GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu said. Such rivals as Apple, Samsung or even Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi could gain share, but it would still cause great turmoil for the tech sector, he said.

Nikkei Asian Review chief business news correspondent Kenji Kawase and Nikkei staff writer Coco Liu in Hong Kong contributed to this report.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top