Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

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tidalwave

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Faithlock said:
By the way, for those who think China didn't try to create electronic industry supply chain before are mistaken.

I don't blame them. They might get that impression from the current Chinese administration.

But before the current Xi administration, previous administrations had being putting significant resources in building a semiconductor fab industry. Sometimes, even to the point of having negative returns.

Can you get more significance when the son of China's president (and Party chairman) try to start up a semiconductor fab?

That is right. The son of President Jiang Zemin, Jiang Mianheng started the Grace Semiconductor in 2000. He started the fab with Winston Wang of Taiwan. Winston Wang is the son of Taiwan's Formosa plastic king. Winston Wang is also politically closer to DPP (the pro- Taiwan independence party).

Also in 2000, SMIC was started by another Taiwanese, Richard Chang. Richard Chang is regarded as the father of China's semiconductor industry. Richard is a devout Christian. Part of the reason of him wanting to go to China is to spread the word of gospel.

He brought hundreds of Taiwanese engineers to start the SMIC. He built special school where the curriculum is based on Taiwan school system. His company has school that uses textbooks that says communists steal China from the Nationalist. Japanese had made significant contribution to the economy of Taiwan, how Taiwan is being bullied by China, etc...

All of these are approved by the Chinese government.

You think Jiang Zemin's administration will take all those crap if he is not eager to create a semiconductor industry.
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The problem is government didn't force it's domestic firms to use domestic source from get go for national security reason.

The government just let market force dictate, of course , domestic parts can never take off, those are generally shunned by domestic companies.

It's the job of government to pass law to force domestic companies to use domestic parts even if they are inferior to start with. With few years usage, the parts will be competitive. But Chinese government never try.
 
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Max Demian

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Hendrik_2000 said:
you think they don't have local service man or diagnostic tool to service those machinery Thye certainly have. It is the part that they don't have. In case of survival they will tose out the patent right and do reverse engineering of those part
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These are not washing machines. The local service engineers can deal only with the straightforward problems.

Reverse engineering these tools is on a similar level of difficulty as reverse engineering modern jet engines.
 
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CMP

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The consensus tone on this thread seems to be defeatist in nature. Any brave souls willing to take up the opposing argument?
 
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tidalwave

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CMP said:
The consensus tone on this thread seems to be defeatist in nature. Any brave souls willing to take up the opposing argument?
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Defeatist? Since when
I propose MAD,
Total ban of US Semiconductor chips and equipments in China market by Chinese government!

No selective killing of China top firm.
If Huawei goes down it has bring down a bunch of US tech companies with it.
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Huawei has stock up part for 12 month and in some cased 24 months so theyshould be ok IN the mean time they better find domestic sources
However, industry participants pointed out that Huawei had been stockpiling components such as chips to ease disruptions.

Its initial target was to build inventories of six to nine months, and it has recently been raised to 12 and, in some cases, 24 months, Jefferies said.

Shares in Huawei suppliers fell across in Asia on the news of the U.S. blacklist.

South Korea's Samsung dropped 2.4%, SK Hynix fell 3.5%, while China's Luxshare Precision Industry fell as much as 6.1%. Shares in ZTE also tumbled.

Huawei has said it is "ready and willing to engage with the U.S. government and come up with effective measures to ensure product security".

Its rotating Chairman Eric Xu also told Reuters in a recent interview that "in case of unforeseen events ... we definitely have our contingency plan. What we have prepared has already been used in some of our products in the Chinese market".
 
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Icmer

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Huawei's stockpile will ensure its telecom business keeps running smoothly for the next year or so. After that, it's unclear. Huawei apparently set a 2.5 year internal deadline to develop local substitutes for affected components. That means 1.5 years of Huawei having to rely on alternative suppliers which may not have the best components (think of Apple trying to reduce dependence on Samsung/Qualcomm, even though LG OLED and Intel modems are inferior).

If the US gets Google to stop certifying Huawei devices for Google Play Services, Huawei will no longer be able to market their smartphones internationally (outside of mainland China where Google is a non-factor).
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Max Demian said:
These are not washing machines. The local service engineers can deal only with the straightforward problems.

Reverse engineering these tools is on a similar level of difficulty as reverse engineering modern jet engines.
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And you do't have a clue how engineering contract is written Most of them required local maintenance depot to be established It is expensive and disrupting if there is any problem they have to fly engineer from silicon valley.

As I said China has experience skirting technical embargo. And with improve industrial base and hihg techn university if push come to shove they will RE

No It is not the same as Gas Turbine or mechanical machinery
 
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CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
tidalwave said:
Defeatist? Since when
I propose MAD,
Total ban of US Semiconductor chips and equipments in China market by Chinese government!

No selective killing of China top firm.
If Huawei goes down it has bring down a bunch of US tech companies with it.
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Huawei is too big to allow to fail. Letting it go down is like the U.S. letting Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. go down.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
escobar said:
China has not really a lot of good options. We should not be naive.

Xi is so afraid that he is sending a beautiful letter to trump.
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A "beautiful" letter LOL I haven't seen what it says; have you? It's the professional communication two leaders should be having when their countries are negotiating treaties. What is actually extremely abnormal is Trump repeatedly going on Twitter to talk about how great a personal relationship he has with Xi and how awesome their "chemistry" is. Xi has never confirmed this or given any sort of reciprocation.

escobar said:
Yes, China response have been so weak. China does not seem to know what to do really.

Fear of pain !
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Last time China's response was "weak," it ended with widening America's trade deficit, 6.6% Chinese GDP growth, and Huawei signing multiple international contracts, even turning Europe against American wishes. It is Trump's style to yell the loudest in the room and Chinese style to achieve results without calamity. If it seems to you like China doesn't know what to do because they're not yelling out or tweeting/weiboing all their plans, then likely that's what it seems like to Trump as well, which is why it will be another surprise to him when the Chinese continue to achieve their objectives and he doesn't.

Some people value yelling; other people value doing. If you value yelling, it will seem like Trump is winning; if you value doing, you will see China is winning. And by winning, I mean continuing to close the economic and technological gap between China and the US for an eventual overtake, because that's what this is all about.
 
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Max Demian

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hendrik_2000 said:
And you do't have a clue how engineering contract is written Most of them required local maintenance depot to be established It is expensive and disrupting if there is any problem they have to fly engineer from silicon valley.

As I said China has experience skirting technical embargo. And with improve industrial base and hihg techn university if push come to shove they will RE

No It is not the same as Gas Turbine or mechanical machinery
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You clearly have no idea what you're talking about. You should read up and learn how mechanically complex these systems actually are.
 
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