Trade War with China

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Xizor

Captain
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*Note this was from last year, I guess it was at Yuan's low point.

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China Is Paying for Most of Trump's Trade War, Research Says



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do you guys agree with the math?

Here's the paper:
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Yeah. This study might be what the Trump office must have in hand as proof when they argue that 21/25 of the tariff is being paid by china. It is not as if the chinese doesn't know this. I don't think this report gives the true picture.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
If it wasn't for swine flu issues, it might be the best time ever to be a Chinese farmer. Blows my mind to know that China has over 300 million farmers, which is like the population of the entire US. That's a constituency to protect.

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China’s E-Commerce Giants Spearhead Initiatives For Rural Agriculture Businesses
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
*Note this was from last year, I guess it was at Yuan's low point.

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China Is Paying for Most of Trump's Trade War, Research Says



490x-1.png


do you guys agree with the math?

Here's the paper:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

You don’t even need to check the maths to know it’s BS.

Extremely few companies make 20%+ profits, with most of the low value added manufacturing companies barely making a wafer thin profit even before the tarrifs. As such, there is simply no way they can absorb a 20% price drop as the paper suggests.

At best this is the kind of dry, divorced of reality paper exercise that gives economics in general a bad rep, and at worse this is a bought and paid for intellectual prostitute willing to write just about anything for a pay cheque.

What more, there is growing evidence of rent seeking by American and other destination manufacturers on the back of the tariffs, whereby they are putting up prices even if they are not actually hit by the tariffs.

What that means is there is less to no incentive for Chinese companies to lower prices if their competitors are increasing their prices as well.
 
Guys. China's additional tariff on $60 Billion US goods looks extremely weak. If these are the major categories, just does not appear to add up unless they are counting potential(not actual) future sales of Natural liquid gas (<$2.5B as for 2017?).

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Food products
105909824-1557757538177gettyimages-1140050024.jpeg

A bee kepper collects honey at a facility in on April 29, 2019.
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
  • Frozen, dried, smoked and salted beef
  • Honey
  • Frozen spinach and legumes including peas, beans and lentils
  • Fine and coarse rice, corn and wheat flour as well as processed oats
  • Any plant mainly used as a spice
  • Virgin olive oil, peanut oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, coconut oil and sesame oil
  • Soda and bottled water
  • Spirits including gin, tequila, vodka and other distilled spirits and alcoholic beverages
Building materials
105910121-1557766149082gettyimages-842958276.jpeg

Shoppers look at plywood and other building materials in a store on September 5, 2017 in Tampa, Florida.
Brian Blanco | Getty Images News | Getty Images
  • Building stone, bricks, panels and floor tiles
  • Wall and ceiling coverings
  • Pipes and tubes
  • Wood flooring and carpets
  • Small tools including handsaws, scissors and other blades
  • Tools used for drilling, milling or boring
Consumer goods
105910112-1557765846189gettyimages-633616992.jpeg

Furniture is displayed for sale at a store on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2017.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
  • Furniture including metal or wood frames for upholstered furniture
  • Bedding and sleeping bags
  • Footwear including leather and rubber boots, sports shoes and accessories for shoes
  • Hats, umbrellas and walking sticks
  • Lighting fixtures
  • Watches and clocks
  • Musical instruments including upright pianos, stringed instruments, wind instruments and keyboards
Transport
105910099-1557765430025gettyimages-631606078.jpeg

Aerial view of passengers trains at a railway station on January 12, 2017 in Chengdu, China.
VCG | Visual China Group | Getty Images
  • Parts for railway or tramway locomotives
  • Track signal equipment for railway or tramway
  • Sailboats, motorboats and yachts
  • Canoes and other recreational vessels
Electronics
  • Coffee makers, hair dryers, microwaves, space heaters, electric ovens
  • Television broadcast cameras
  • Telecommunications equipment
  • Microphones, headphones, speakers, recorders, DVD players and other accessories for video and audio equipment
Natural resources and chemicals
105909870-1557759015998gettyimages-976692744.jpeg

A man takes iron samples from a blast furnace at a steel factory.
Construction Photography/Avalon | Hulton Archive | Getty Images
  • Rocks including granite, marble, chalk and sandstone
  • Precious and semiprecious stones including diamonds, rubies and emeralds
  • Metal ores including iron, nickel, zinc, titanium and zirconium
  • Natural liquid gas
  • Fertilizers
  • Chemicals including chlorine, iodine and sulfuric acid
  • Dyes and pigment
 
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localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
You don’t want to tax intermediates or end products that have no alternatives, it’ll hurt Chinese competitiveness. Best thing to just do shit on the side.
 
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