Trade War with China
- Thread starter Ultra
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Nah, everyone's just pitting US against China and taking the opportunity to get a better deal.
I doubt the U.S. can stop China from buying Iranian oil (without triggering a hot war, that is). The China/Iran trade in oil is not worth much (about $15 billion/year, according to a list above). If China stopped buying airplanes from Boeing, that would probably cost the U.S. far more than that (in the hundreds of billions of dollars). So the U.S. will suffer much more than China if it tries to stop the flow of oil from Iran.
Ultra
Junior Member
Like I said, is China willing to risk it all or should I say is China ready to fight a prolong trade war or even a hot war? US is showing its stick, and it is looking at who's obeying (allies or not).
China needs to prepare for a long dispute, regardless of the outcome of the current trade negotiations: Trump can't be trusted to stick to any deal. As Peter Beinart says in the in The Atlantic, found by Hendrik_2000,
«That’s partly because, for Trump, no agreement is truly final. ... Trump has already begun to renege on commitments made as part of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which he hailed as “incredible” in October.»
China has a stick too. Most of it is economic, but the military part is far from negligible (as the Korean War has proven). We'll see if Trump is willing to fight over an issue (Iran) that's almost irrelevant to true American interests.
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I am not sure if China is willing to risk this given that Iran only supplies 6% of its oil, and with the general trend of energy conservation and renewable energy in China, oil consumption can be reduced further. Russia seems happy about the rise of oil prices, and lets not forget, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab states are "friends" of China too. Plus they are planning (forced?) to buy more oil and gas from the US anyway. Its just that China has a wealth of options to manage the situation.
What's going to hurt is the rise of oil prices that is going to hit the American consumer this summer when they are already knee deep in debt, and at the same time, hurt US relations with India, a country that has a strong historical affinity with Iran. That is something India cannot substitute.
What's going to hurt is the rise of oil prices that is going to hit the American consumer this summer when they are already knee deep in debt, and at the same time, hurt US relations with India, a country that has a strong historical affinity with Iran. That is something India cannot substitute.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
The sky is falling again? China doesn't get the majority of its oil from Iran. Do you actually think the US tells the truth? China could stop buying oil from Iran and nothing will stop the US from lying as an excuse to take actions on China for something else. You have to wonder why China would ship oil to North Korea by ship when it can ship it on rail without the US knowing anything. And remember how Hong Kong and Taiwan were involved in that shipment of oil to North Korea. The US can hide the truth and lie at the same time. Trump is ready to slap tariffs on China over furniture after a deal. If the US can slap new tariffs after a deal, China can slaps tariffs on US soy beans... again. Who do you think is going to be the hypocrite snowflake whining about it?
All I see is a bunch of people moving the goal post. Remember China was suppose to collapse day one of Trump's trade war against China. It's been almost a year and has China collapsed? Why do we keep hearing a deal is near yet always hear there's still a long way to go? Maybe because Trump knows he can't slap more tariffs because the stock market will sink so he's just buoying the US stock market with lies that a great deal is near so the stock market keeps going up on optimism alone? If China is not giving what Trump wants, why doesn't he start slapping tariffs he threatened for the new year? The next round of tariffs hit US corporations because they outsource to China.
Remember... over 60% of China exports to the US are actually foreign corporations outsourcing to China. Americans think China's penny it makes out of every dollar making products for foreigners is more important to the Chinese than the 99 cents out every dollar US corporations won't be making from the same product produced. They think China is going to blink first. In reality that's why the hesitation. Trump has already run out of actual Chinese targets that only hurt China. Has China collapsed? All of China's largest companies aren't dependent on Americans as customers. Trump can force US companies to stop selling to China technological parts... and those companies won't be making money. That's how capitalism works. It's a natural balance going on that the US can't control. If trade deals didn't work out for US companies, they would simply not agree to a deal in the first place. Americans in wanting to be the portrayed as the victim believe there's a gun being pointed at their heads. If they were going to lose money, they wouldn't agree to a deal.
I was listening to a radio talk show and a caller complains why aren't jobs being shipped to Latin America where the money can help people instead of China. Maybe because China is where US corporations make the most money from having their products produced...? That's what corporations do. It isn't some altruistic act on part of foreign corporations to outsource. It's Trump that's upsetting that balance and that's why the US is feeling it worse. If the US was as strong as Trump makes it, he can ignore farmers. Trump doesn't need to worry if they go bankrupt because everyone else is doing great. But instead Trump's trade war with China has ground to halt. End trade now! It's the US who won't be getting rare earths on the cheap anymore to make the newest technologies. When prices skyrocket, there won't be as much money to develop new technologies. If the US brings jobs back to Americans with higher wages, then Americans can afford higher prices. Yeah but that doesn't account for US allies that can still produce cheaper alternatives while still exploiting outsourcing. The US can't beat their products on price and US companies go bankrupt. The only choices for the US is to ban allies' products from competing in the US market or force allies to not outsource to countries with cheap labor. How realistic do you think that's going to be? If the US was strong and doesn't need anyone else, no need to tell other countries how to run their economies.
All I see is a bunch of people moving the goal post. Remember China was suppose to collapse day one of Trump's trade war against China. It's been almost a year and has China collapsed? Why do we keep hearing a deal is near yet always hear there's still a long way to go? Maybe because Trump knows he can't slap more tariffs because the stock market will sink so he's just buoying the US stock market with lies that a great deal is near so the stock market keeps going up on optimism alone? If China is not giving what Trump wants, why doesn't he start slapping tariffs he threatened for the new year? The next round of tariffs hit US corporations because they outsource to China.
Remember... over 60% of China exports to the US are actually foreign corporations outsourcing to China. Americans think China's penny it makes out of every dollar making products for foreigners is more important to the Chinese than the 99 cents out every dollar US corporations won't be making from the same product produced. They think China is going to blink first. In reality that's why the hesitation. Trump has already run out of actual Chinese targets that only hurt China. Has China collapsed? All of China's largest companies aren't dependent on Americans as customers. Trump can force US companies to stop selling to China technological parts... and those companies won't be making money. That's how capitalism works. It's a natural balance going on that the US can't control. If trade deals didn't work out for US companies, they would simply not agree to a deal in the first place. Americans in wanting to be the portrayed as the victim believe there's a gun being pointed at their heads. If they were going to lose money, they wouldn't agree to a deal.
I was listening to a radio talk show and a caller complains why aren't jobs being shipped to Latin America where the money can help people instead of China. Maybe because China is where US corporations make the most money from having their products produced...? That's what corporations do. It isn't some altruistic act on part of foreign corporations to outsource. It's Trump that's upsetting that balance and that's why the US is feeling it worse. If the US was as strong as Trump makes it, he can ignore farmers. Trump doesn't need to worry if they go bankrupt because everyone else is doing great. But instead Trump's trade war with China has ground to halt. End trade now! It's the US who won't be getting rare earths on the cheap anymore to make the newest technologies. When prices skyrocket, there won't be as much money to develop new technologies. If the US brings jobs back to Americans with higher wages, then Americans can afford higher prices. Yeah but that doesn't account for US allies that can still produce cheaper alternatives while still exploiting outsourcing. The US can't beat their products on price and US companies go bankrupt. The only choices for the US is to ban allies' products from competing in the US market or force allies to not outsource to countries with cheap labor. How realistic do you think that's going to be? If the US was strong and doesn't need anyone else, no need to tell other countries how to run their economies.
Backing Iran is more of a BRI credibility issue. China couldn't care less about the oil.
I think the other parties are important in this matter. Though none of those guys wants to be seen as being on the side of the Chinese.
The Indians are actually most worried about US cutting H1B's if India doesn't behave.
I think the other parties are important in this matter. Though none of those guys wants to be seen as being on the side of the Chinese.
The Indians are actually most worried about US cutting H1B's if India doesn't behave.
If the Indians are worried about that they are deluding themselves. Increasingly a lot of such IT work is being off-shored. This has been happening for a decade or more now.
The instant Trump wanted to cut that off he would face a massive counter by IT companies in the US. Much like his supposed cuts to H1B visas never got any major traction.
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