Russian efforts to sell the Su-57/PAK FA to China

Biscuits said:

I don’t see it as a competitor for the J-20. And I don’t think that’s what Russia is trying to market it as either.

It’s far from a done deal, but the chance of purchase is not non existent. Especially if the price is amicable.

Major allies usually share development to some degree. There has been plenty of signs of strengthening alliance between China and Russia. In the past, it was not politically correct to move too close to Russia, but now, China and the west is in open struggle. China and Russia agreed to make a common next generation lift helicopter.

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No, but even more I find it telling how this all evolved in the latest days ... indeed an incredible PR stunt; a truly amazing story:

It all started with some news, rumours and suggestions which from day to day evolved - especially in certain forums - to ever more fantastic "fact": and I can imagine what's next:

- Russia might prepare the Su-57 for export as the Su-57E
- Russia offers this type to Turkey and the ME
- Russia offers this type to India, ...
- Russia offers this type to China
- China might acquire the Su-57
- China will purchase the Su-57
- China already ordered the Su-57
- China cancelled its own J-20 project in favour of the Su-57
- the J-20 is a failure

Of course there's going to be a lot of bad press if China buys the Su-57. But I think intelligent people will be able to tell that the Su-57 was bought for the price point; if the Russians can sell the Chinese a heavy stealth fighter at 50-60mn per unit, it's reasonable for the Chinese to buy it. A lot of people have this perception that simply because the Su-57 is less stealthy compared to J-20 and F-35, it's not stealthy at all. The point is more that the Su-57 will be significantly stealthier than 4th gens; recall that Eurocanards can hit -10 dBsm unloaded; even -25 dBsm gives the Su-57 a significant advantage over 4th generation aircraft, especially ones that have to carry their missiles externally.

Moreover, at best, the J-20 production line seems targeted at 48 units per year, a reasonable quantity considering future needs to retrofit with WS-15. Having the Su-57 up, when the J-31 is far from ready, means that China can rapidly close the 5th gen gap with the United States.

Biscuits said:

I don’t see it as a competitor for the J-20.

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You see this is where I think you are wrong. Russia thought they had the PRC. They felt that the Chinese are so invested in J10 That it would become the Chinese Eurofighter. That the Chinese aviation industry would be so soaked up by J10, JF17 and more That they couldn't start a fifth gen.
They bet on sales for India and China in the hundreds

Inst said:

Of course there's going to be a lot of bad press if China buys the Su-57. But I think intelligent people will be able to tell that the Su-57 was bought for the price point; if the Russians can sell the Chinese a heavy stealth fighter at 50-60mn per unit, it's reasonable for the Chinese to buy it. A lot of people have this perception that simply because the Su-57 is less stealthy compared to J-20 and F-35, it's not stealthy at all. The point is more that the Su-57 will be significantly stealthier than 4th gens; recall that Eurocanards can hit -10 dBsm unloaded; even -25 dBsm gives the Su-57 a significant advantage over 4th generation aircraft, especially ones that have to carry their missiles externally.

Moreover, at best, the J-20 production line seems targeted at 48 units per year, a reasonable quantity considering future needs to retrofit with WS-15. Having the Su-57 up, when the J-31 is far from ready, means that China can rapidly close the 5th gen gap with the United States.

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If, if, if, if and even more ifs !!!

Come on, this all started with this:

araberuni said:

S-400 is not what Turkey, Saudi, Qatar think. MALD-J, EA-18 Growler, Sky Shield and AN/ASQ-239 can jam S-400 illumination radar. HARM can destroy S-400.
If I look at Chinese military trends then Electric warfare is a key area China is focusing on and developing greater electronic warfare capabilities. China has developed some good electronic attack capability including laser disturbance. Russian philosophy is different on electronic capabilities with an exception of GPS jammer for V Putin's Security.

If China can combine engine capability of Su-57 into J-20 & J-31 then J-31 would have huge export potential to Latin america and Asia.

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Electronic warfare means nothing else but to forbid to the enemy radars the capability to use monopulse and signal compression for precise target location.
It usable only in the area of main beam, means a nebo-m can be blinded in a 6-7 km area around the jammer.

But if there are many radars then all that it cause is to make 11 km diameter radius where the radars blind.

China wouldn't be stupid to destroy the export potential of J-31E by endorsing the Su-57E.

J-31E is a direct competitor to Su-57E for the same markets, and endorsing the Su-57E sends the wrong signals to potential customers of J-31E.

Also, , how hard is it for PLAAF to make dummy versions of Su-57?

It depends on how the J-31 evolves. AFAIK it simply is not in the same weight category as the Su-57.
Right now the J-31 uses two RD-93 engines with 85 kN thrust (wet) each. Each Su-57 has two AL-41F1 engines with 147 kN thrust (wet) each.
So it is like you are comparing an F-35 to an F-22. Not the same weight class.
One is a mass produced lightweight fighter and the other is a high-end heavy fighter.

There are rumors the J-31 design is being changed to something 20% larger. But even that would be smaller than the Su-57.
Also the engines that could propel something like that are nowhere in sight. Even if they become available, by then the Su-57 should have the Idzeliye 30 engines.

So while there is some overlap in that they are both stealth fighters these are different segments altogether.
I would also say that there are some distinguishing characteristics between the Su-57 and the J-20.
The J-20 seems more optimized for BVR fighting while the Su-57 seems more optimized for mid range or close range fighting.

Given that China can now afford these expensive weapons programs they might simply opt to get all of the platforms which are available.

Inst said:

Of course there's going to be a lot of bad press if China buys the Su-57. But I think intelligent people will be able to tell that the Su-57 was bought for the price point; if the Russians can sell the Chinese a heavy stealth fighter at 50-60mn per unit, it's reasonable for the Chinese to buy it. A lot of people have this perception that simply because the Su-57 is less stealthy compared to J-20 and F-35, it's not stealthy at all. The point is more that the Su-57 will be significantly stealthier than 4th gens; recall that Eurocanards can hit -10 dBsm unloaded; even -25 dBsm gives the Su-57 a significant advantage over 4th generation aircraft, especially ones that have to carry their missiles externally.

Moreover, at best, the J-20 production line seems targeted at 48 units per year, a reasonable quantity considering future needs to retrofit with WS-15. Having the Su-57 up, when the J-31 is far from ready, means that China can rapidly close the 5th gen gap with the United States.

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What is more bad press than China cannot mass produce a working engine for all fighter jet fleets and missing export potential due to lake of domestic engine. Please don't bring JF-17 engine. JF-17 is different. How many J-10 China exported so far?

In military history, every country bites the bullet and move on. Russia's lonely aircraft Carrier towed, T-14 broke down during national parade and in front of V Putin, USS Gerald Ford lost control in sea, early days of European Fighter AKA EuroFighter Typhoon and Chinese J-15 caught fire. These are lesson learnt rather than shame. You're building mega machine, you will learn lessons. This is not a can of tomato soup.
No one should deny the fact that you're building a complex machine but you shouldn't get into the situation like Boeing 737 MAX where there is major failure in a mega machine.

Take the best from Su-57 and move on to J-XX.

Anlsvrthng said:

Electronic warfare means nothing else but to forbid to the enemy radars the capability to use monopulse and signal compression for precise target location.
It usable only in the area of main beam, means a nebo-m can be blinded in a 6-7 km area around the jammer.

But if there are many radars then all that it cause is to make 11 km diameter radius where the radars blind.

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Electric warfare would be the fundamental to win a war near future. It's no longer a accessory of fighter jet. Look at Israeli Sky Shield is protecting age old F-16 from Pantsir and Buk. Israel has successfully destroyed Pantsir and Buk using jammer like Sky Shield and Delilah cruise missile which also have spoofing capability.

SEAD is a core design element of modern fighter jet J-XX or F-XX or Gripen E.

Another article suggesting that localized manufacturing of Su-57E in Turkey and China.