antiterror13
Brigadier
not only the Chinese and Russia .. many others are now reconsidering their investments in the USA and also reconsidering to use the US parts for their products
Trade War with China
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not only the Chinese and Russia .. many others are now reconsidering their investments in the USA and also reconsidering to use the US parts for their products
The US trade war and tech war against China has almost exactly followed the scripts it used back in the '80s against Japan.
The US had forced its own WiMax as one of the international standards back at the beginning of 3G age of the mobile communication, even after the deadline for proposing standards had already passed. It was a fiasco due to lack of adoption by the "international community" and "the rest of world." Both Europe and China essentially boycotted the standard.
Yes, but Chinese government can still exert strong control of capital flow: the big four of Chinese conglomerates accounting for majority of the mega deals a couple years back: HNA, Anbang, Wanda, and Fosun all had to divest many of their diversified overseas investments. By the way, Hong Kong's movie industry is only a shadow of its former self in the '90s. China has a burgeoning movie industry; it's box office revenue should exceed that of the US either this year or next with domestic production taking an increasing market share.
The US is abusing its power of dollar as a reserve currency, and its current status in tech and market. Currently, when it wields these power, it almost appear so powerful. But they will harm the US in longer term. China is not Japan, which is essentially a US protectorate and lacks a large domestic market. For all the seeming competition and threat, China had been a good partner to the US and US-led global order, both during the Cold War and the post Cold War globalized prosperity. The current US hegemony is built upon its military (and the alliance system) and the dollar, which China has either acceded tacitly or effectively. Its real economy could not possibly support it. The US will not be able to contain China, nor could it isolate China. What it does is actually gradually isolates itself from the rest of the world.
antiterror13
Brigadier
solo super/hyper power is not good .... power tend to corrupt and abuse and its happening now
Jura The idiot
General
What does personal information about a person stating his opinion has to do with the stated view? Nothing. Lets not go to ad hominem comments.
A nifty calculator where one puts in growth and it draws up graphs: (updated for 2017 actual GDP)
US GDP growth in the last 10 years (one has to choose the 10Y option)
Same for China
Comparable trends for countries turning from low income to high income economies
My prediction that it is likely Chinese GDP in nominal terms will overshoot US in the 2040 to 2049 timeframe stems from the graphs above. Without ANY US meddling and tries to pressure Chinese economy, the average GDP growths for the next 10 years work out at 2.3% for US and 5.6% for China. The overshoot year in that case would be 2033. But from 2029 to 2039 one would have to correct the GDP growth rates again. And while US may indeed be lower than 2.3%, the past graphs of SK/JPN/TW suggest any country will inevitably slide further. Possibly to 4-5% for most of that period. Adding a few more years to that 2033 prediction. And then when one DOES include efforts by US and other countries allied to US to pressure the Chinese economy, the year 2040 seems quite reasonable to me. I again stress, to me. This is a personal line of thought. One can disagree or agree but there's little reason to discuss one's personal thoughts in detail. And depending on the exact nature of the outside pressure on Chinese economy, it may not even be 2040 but several years or a decade later.
Of course, none of that is precise. There are variables that can't be easily predicted. Currency exchange rates influence GDP sums greatly. But there is no significant historical precedent that i see suggesting Yuan will drop under 6 for a dollar without impacting own economy.
Inflation rates can influence GDP growth too, though they seem similar. and , with both being around 2% on average for the last 10 or so years.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, of course, but aside from using other countries in similar situations (none for US, barely some half-applicable countries for China) there is literally nothing left to base a prediction on. Sure, a meteor can strike US or China. A disease may wipe out 10% of the population. Various economic bubbles can happen, etc. But none of those can be predicted with any certainty. So in my opinion they're better left out of any predictions.
In any case, likelihood of China going past US in nominal GDP in 2020s is, in my personal opinion, under 5%. Likelihood of it doing the same in 2030s is perhaps 30% or so. And likelihood of China doing it in 2040s is 50% or so. With remaining 15% being for 2050s, 2060s, or any other later date. These percentages are mostly taken out of thin air, based a bit on the data above, but also trying to take the more unpredictable events like burst economic bubbles into consideration.
AFAIK the last US soybean harvest was partly lost because of the Chinese import restrictions.
So the damage was done and the point was made. China does not need US agricultural products. Now Trump has said he "might" expand the negotiation period. Guess why. Trouble at home particularly in Congress.
However Trump makes deals like a mobster. So I would not be surprised if he waited until the harvest season was over and then he raised tariffs again. If he does I think China should do what the Japanese used to do in the 1980s. Let the cargo rot in port and send it back to the US for failing quality control.
If the US is successful in preventing Chinese trade with the West then China may chose to strengthen its currency and pay for its goods in something other than USD and thus further weaken the dollar, if China becomes a consumption led rather than export led economy it won't need to have a trade weighted currency!
As we're talking influence rather than my GDP is bigger than yours, once GDPs are comparable economic influence becomes comparable, regardless of whether Chinese GDP exceeds US GDP in the next decade they will be in the same ball park.
With respect to "Influence" the thing that's eroding US influence is the fact that there is an alternative development model on offer that has so far proven to work, you can draw as many graphs as you like but if a dirt poor China of the '1950s can bootstrap itself to a first world economy 2020s no amount of US marketing or spin is going to be able to counter it as a viable means of getting poor countries to become richer and the whole edifice that's the post war liberal democratic order as the only way forward is shattered.
For the US to hold on to its influence it needs to debunk the Chinese model as a failure much in the way Communism was, hence the concentration on Chinese debt traps, lack of democracy, Chinese economy imploding, Chinese Inability to innovate, Chinese IP theft the list goes on.
The recent problem to this has been that the current US government took aim at its toe and pulled the trigger, dissing friend and foe alike in a mass orgy of how to lose friends and alienate people, plays well to a section at home does little to win hearts and minds abroad!
The alleged "personal information" is to do with the fact that in your opening statement you said "in my lifetime" as most folks will live to their 80s now, there's a huge difference in time depending on whether you're 25 or 75 as to what "in my lifetime" might actually mean! May be you should just use absolute time periods (within 20 years, the year 2045 etc) instead of relative ones like, my dog's lifetime, my unborn daughter's wedding day etc, that is if you don't want to cause confusion, debate or the need to expose personal information in order for others to make sense of your opinion!
There are too many unknown factors at play here. What I can tell you is one thing. China is still way, way behind Western standards of living in particular in the smaller cities. What this means to me is that their GDP still has a long way where it can grow before it stops. If the USA puts a damper on China's investments abroad it might paradoxically lead to more investments in China which will, I think, make China grow even faster. Right now China is making major investments abroad and the payback for those will take at least a decade. China is in this for the long haul. I think that is the major reason for the current slowdown. Not lack of possible investments in China as typically said in Western media.
After the large construction boom over the last two decades in China there are still asymmetries. The public transportation network outside the inner cores of major cities is still insufficient and outdated in organizational terms. For example I remember a couple of years back seeing this news piece where in China people made long lines in the morning to catch a bus from the suburbs. Well that could easily be solved. You add buses where you preorder the ticket and the seat online just like on a plane. It is a trivial change and it means it releases those people waiting in line to do other tasks. This does not need to be universally adopted but mainly on longer distance or congested routes like that.
I am also unsure about how well suburban rail is doing in China. But if the metro system is any indication of it then huge productivity boosts are still to come.
I have never heard of suburban rail having proper investments in China unlike the high-speed rail or the metro. Yet it is essential because the metro is too slow over suburban routes and the high-speed rail cannot make as many stops as it won't be as efficient. Chinese city topology and population has changed dramatically over the last two decades so I doubt any system built prior to that is adequate today.
As sectors like civilian aerospace and semiconductors also grow in China it will mean they will produce higher value products which they won't need to import anymore.
I also expect major investments in pollution reduction to be made over the next decade. As natural gas gets used instead of coal in the north and electric cars replace oil powered cars in major cities. That should improve air pollution. The government should also make efforts to improve water quality and reduce water pollution. For example in China it is still common that people need to boil tap water to ensure it isn't infected. This needs to be sorted out. I think all of these issues will be progressively solved over the next decade. One of the biggest improvements in health you can make is to provide everyone with clean safe water.
I wrote "in our lifetimes", not "in my lifetime". And I did that on purpose as there is no way to give out a single, clear time span for something as vague as we're talking about here. If you really, really press me for translating that "in our lifetimes" phrase into a time period, i'll go with 50 years. Which could be 40 or it could be 100 but what the heck. So I rather went with a vague statement than giving out a broad set of years like that. That's assuming there aren't many underage members here, assuming a 20-30 average age and adding 50-ish years to get to average lifespan expected.
None of that means much either as we've got no way to define "power" or "influence", so even when the year 2069 comes rolling, we still won't be able to properly deduce much and I'm sure there'll be plenty of Americans saying "US is more influential" and plenty of Chinese saying "China is more influential".
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