Trade War with China

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Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
it's actually interesting (the guy will live or hang) Opinion: Canadian case should be discussed within legal framework 2019-01-17 13:09 GMT+8
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Its patently obvious that China is "Squeezing Canada", by threatening to kill a Canadian citizen tried and convicted of drug smuggling in a Chinese court, and sentenced to 15 years! sounds about right, drugs are a serious problem in all of our countries....

Now comes China, trying the case once again, with no new evidence, and finding the defendant is guilty and sentencing him to death!

this is more than disturbing, its obvious what China is doing, and will further reinforce international perceptions about China!
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Its patently obvious that China is "Squeezing Canada", by threatening to kill a Canadian citizen tried and convicted of drug smuggling in a Chinese court, and sentenced to 15 years! sounds about right, drugs are a serious problem in all of our countries....

Now comes China, trying the case once again, with no new evidence, and finding the defendant is guilty and sentencing him to death!

this is more than disturbing, its obvious what China is doing, and will further reinforce international perceptions about China!

There was “new evidence” through? They uncovered more details on previous evidence regarding how he had willingly planned the whole operation and disguised his smuggled items.

Against those calling this a case of discrimination, his partner in crime who also orchestrated the smuggling was also sentenced to death alongside him.

It will reinforce perceptions that China is a country that takes upholding law & order seriously, something that’s seriously lacking in the international community where you have nation-states use cartel tactics to “negotiate” with others.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Its patently obvious that China is "Squeezing Canada", by threatening to kill a Canadian citizen tried and convicted of drug smuggling in a Chinese court, and sentenced to 15 years! sounds about right, drugs are a serious problem in all of our countries....

Now comes China, trying the case once again, with no new evidence, and finding the defendant is guilty and sentencing him to death!

this is more than disturbing, its obvious what China is doing, and will further reinforce international perceptions about China!

Bud, do a simple google search and learn about punishment for drug dealing in China before opening your mouth

A Chinese citizen was executed for transporting less than 5kg of meth. The Canadian was transporting 200kg!
What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

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28 Jun, 2018 12:16pm

The other criminal, 36-year-old Huang Zhengye, was found guilty of transporting and selling methamphetamine.

He was caught in possession of 4,749.8 grams (10.47 pounds) of methamphetamine and 71,100 yuan (£8,143) in relation to drug dealing in September 2015, according to the court.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
First of all, I am not a Chinese national. I have no loyalty to Chinese government. I don’t think I am biased toward China in general.


If the above don’t meet your criteria, please stop reading now.
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But I am worry about how this trade war is going. I am absolutely against Trump in starting this trade war. I worries about how Xi is handling the trade war. I felt this trade war could potentially spiral into something a lot worst.


Trump is a bully and an as-hole, but he is also a businessman. He is perpetually looking for the “best deal”. But Xi has to offer that “best deal”.


The way Xi is reacting to Trump is as he seems to be operated out of fear. He seems to be afraid that he would do too much to antagonize the US to a point where both parties will unite. He seems to be afraid that he would antagonize the US to a point where US and EU will unite. He is afraid to cause a cycle of perpetual retaliations.


By the way, he may also be operating this way to act as a responsible global citizen. Nobody knows how Xi thinks except himself. But I can see his actions. From his actions, Trump will most likely perceive as fear and weakness on Xi’s part.


It seems like whenever Trump pushed, Xi resisted, then Xi gave a little. There is never that “best deal”. If every times Trump pushes, he got a little something more, why would he ever want to stop? In addition, the price of pushing China is so little (because Xi allows Trump to take the initiatives), why would he not want to keep on trying. I believe China said that they had a verbal agreement a few months ago. But Trump renegade. Trump is very instinctual. He is going to keeping on pushing as long as there are benefits for him to do so.


But most importantly, Xi allows Trump to take the initiatives. Trump decides the boundary of the battle. He wants to keep the battle within the bi-lateral import and export. Of course he wants to do that, China ran a lobe sided trade surplus, thus this is a battlefield heavily tilted against China. But why does China want to stay within this artificially created battlefield. Why is China allowing Trump to have a diplomatic victory with North Korea? Why doesn’t China react more strongly when Trump withdraws from the Iran treaty?


China has one great advantage that US doesn’t have. China has lots of money. In addition, the government of China can spend that money wherever, whenever, and however she wants while Trump can’t because money come from the Congress. If Xi is willing to spend money where it would hurt Trump or US (even if it doesn't help China, so I am not talking about Belt and Road), he can create so many new battlefields that are tilted favorably to China.


Trump is starting the trade war. A trade war is supposed to be painful because it causes supply chain relocation. But supply chain relocation is only truly painful if it occurs abruptly. But Trump is succeeding in doing a soft landing on the supply chain relocation by giving the companies plenty of time to relocate (The intend to start the trade war occurs on 3/22/2018, even now only $50B worth of goods were tariff, but all the factories in China know they need to relocate big part of their factories to other countries).


But why is China allowing it. 50% tariff on $25B has a lot more impact than 25% tariff on $50B. 25% tariff (alone with 10% depreciation of RMB) might allows for slow relocation while 50% tariff causes inflation or unavailabity of the goods.


Trump is picking tariff in batches. The 1st batch has the least impact on US, the 2nd batch has 2nd least impact, etc.


Trump is deciding the where, the when, and the how.


Why does China allow Trump to has this smooth and nice built up? Why can’t China impost export tax on the products that will affect US the most (for example 50% export tax on $10B of products that US has trouble source from others)?



Trump is taking initiative in starting new battlefields where US has great advantages. He targeted ZTE. It took Xi’s personal phone call to Trump to “resolve” this. First, it is not much of a “resolve” when the result is having the company reports to US’s embedded compliance team. I am pretty certain in the future; historian will call this an unequal agreement.


The second I heard about this, I knew all the great Chinese companies will be in danger. Again, Trump is taking initiatives. He created leverage out of thin air and got something out of it without much pain. Why doesn’t Xi counter attack? Why does Xi has to cater?


ZTE might be forced to go bankrupt against the US. But it doesn’t have to if it has the full support of China. ZTE can buy low end chipset from Spreadtrum, mid end chipset from Taiwan’s Mediatech, and (China can force) Huawei to sell high end chipset to ZTE.


Even if ZTE is forced to go bankrupt, so what? ZTE is a state own company. All the research, equipment, and personnel are within China. The company is easy to re-constitute.


It is easy to counter attack. For example, most of the technology companies have suit/countersuit between US and Chinese companies. Lets take Micro Technology and SMIC as an example, each are suing each other in China for IP infringement. All it takes is for a court to issue injunction on SMIC’s behave and forbid Micro Tech from selling significant part of their product in China until the injunction is lifted.


Now, Trump goes even further. He basically “kidnapped” Huawei’s daughter. Again, Xi does nothing against US. Why won’t Trump ever stop if there is no pain? Or why would any future US politician want to stop attacking China since they can look strong in front their electorate without suffering many consequences?


I am not talking about overwhelming attack. I am only talking about proportional counter attack. I came out with quite a few (4 or 5 or more) ways of counter attacks. But frankly, it is not important. I am certain Xi (from his excellent economic officials) has a lot more ways to counter attack that are in proportion and provides maximum pain to its opponents. But it is more of a question of will. Is he willing to do it?


Old guards such as Mao Zedong and Zeng Xiaoping, who were great generals, understand the necessity of taking initiatives. They understand that when they order a company to take over an enemy position, they will take casualties and losses. The only way to not take loss is to get inside a castle and play defense. But playing defense is also the sure way to lose everything.

You first said that anyone with a few minutes' thinking could come up with a better plan. Then, you said you need 24 hours to have a plan. After 24 hours, you first write a disclaimer, that you don't think for the Chinese government (which somehow in your mind removes the responsibility of creating a plan even though it was your own claim you had one) and then, you write a 500 word essay that can be summed up as "I don't know."

Sound about right? That paragraph wasn't a plan; it was a complaint. This you don't like, that you don't like, etc... Just as before the your entire thought can be summed up as you want to see aggression rather than strategy. Trump tried to viciously attack China in a trade war; Xi was much more reserved, retaliating very little in comparison. What's the result? Largest trade deficit in history in favor of China in 2018, Chinese consumers swearing off US products like soybeans and iphones. American auto companies shutting plants, complaining about higher steel prices. Americans at each other's necks arguing about tariffs and policies that are hurting the US. This is called using ounces of force to defeat tons. But you only see aggression; you don't see results, so you think Trump won because he was more aggressive! That's probably how he gets votes.

I don't know why you keep putting Deng and Mao together. China didn't grow under Mao and Mao was aggressive. China grew under Deng while Deng was diplomatic.

You said you had 4-5 ways of reacting to the situation? List them. No 500 word complaint letter to obscure the main focus; just:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
 

weig2000

Captain
Its patently obvious that China is "Squeezing Canada", by threatening to kill a Canadian citizen tried and convicted of drug smuggling in a Chinese court, and sentenced to 15 years! sounds about right, drugs are a serious problem in all of our countries....

Now comes China, trying the case once again, with no new evidence, and finding the defendant is guilty and sentencing him to death!

this is more than disturbing, its obvious what China is doing, and will further reinforce international perceptions about China!

Drug trafficking is a very serious crime. It's punishable by death sentence and is very common. Multiple Japanese citizens were sentenced to death penalty in recent years, so were British citizens, and, indeed, Pakistani citizens. All because of drug trafficking.

I did not know how the Canadian got only a 15-year sentence initially, considering that he was trying to smuggle over 200kg meth and his prior criminal history. Death sentence to him is fair and consistent with all previous convictions of similar crime. There is no basis for Canada or its "allies," i.e., the five-eyes spying alliance countries to cry foul.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
China is not the only Asian country with death penalty for drug trafficking. Just look at Singapore for example.
I am against the death penalty personally. I think people should be given a chance to redeem themselves.
That is why I typically avoid visiting such countries. There have been cases where people have had someone else put drugs on their luggage when they left it unattended and getting sentenced.

In this case the Chinese court increased the sentence because they had someone testify that the Canadian personally oversaw and helped with stashing the drugs to hide them.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
But most importantly, Xi allows Trump to take the initiatives.

No, Trump is largely trapped already, and he knows it.

That is why he's kidnapping civilians; it's a desperate move to get some leverage over China, any leverage, however ugly. He did it because he has few options left: the U.S. economy** will not support a major trade war; a kinetic war'll be catastrophic; and China is closing in economically, especially with a tidal wave of engineers and Made in China 2025.

Xi is only allowing Trump to randomly thrash about, like an animal caught in a net.


**Dollar usage internationally for payments:
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, and
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, just two years later. Warning: both links yield documents in PDF format.
 
Bud, do a simple google search and learn about punishment for drug dealing in China before opening your mouth

A Chinese citizen was executed for transporting less than 5kg of meth. The Canadian was transporting 200kg!
What's good for the goose is good for the gander.
it appears the initial sentence (15 years imprisonment) was low; would you comment

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28 Jun, 2018 12:16pm

The other criminal, 36-year-old Huang Zhengye, was found guilty of transporting and selling methamphetamine.

He was caught in possession of 4,749.8 grams (10.47 pounds) of methamphetamine and 71,100 yuan (£8,143) in relation to drug dealing in September 2015, according to the court.
thanks for sharing, didn't know they'd use a firing squad

by the way I've read several books about capital punishment, on occasions almost faded and had to interrupt reading
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
Xi is only allowing Trump to randomly thrash about, like an animal caught in a net.

Just had a thought.

There is one thing Trump can do to hurt China. If he could make the Chinese build of Microsoft Windows stop working, he could totally wreck a lot of China's civilian computing ecosystem. It would be easy for Microsoft to break Windows selectively, in China only: Windows 10's automatic "upgrade" process is perfect for injecting viruses.
 

nugroho

Junior Member
Its patently obvious that China is "Squeezing Canada", by threatening to kill a Canadian citizen tried and convicted of drug smuggling in a Chinese court, and sentenced to 15 years! sounds about right, drugs are a serious problem in all of our countries....

Now comes China, trying the case once again, with no new evidence, and finding the defendant is guilty and sentencing him to death!

this is more than disturbing, its obvious what China is doing, and will further reinforce international perceptions about China!

I hope you were an objective person here, but I think different now
If Meng was a drug trafficker in US, and US goverment has the proof and want Canada to capture her and extradite to US, then I think is allright, But even the US goverment does not have any proof Huawei wrong doing, No concrete proof means it is a false accusation.
 
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