China's SCS Strategy Thread

FireyCross said:

If Iraq and Afghanistan have taught us anything, it's that overwhelming military force doesn't gurantee results. There's no point in Taiwan trying to compete militarily - that's just wasted resources on a fight you can't win, but Taiwan is an incredibly dififcult place to hold, and there are things you can do to improve that, and make Taiwan an obvious quagmire that any invader would want to avoid.

Firstly, the natural terrain is hellish for an invading army. It's a warren of mountains, valleys and hideouts covered in dense jungle that make Vietnam look like a walk in the park. Secondly, all areas that aren't covered by the first are hyper dense cities full of tall, tighly packed buildings that are in turn full militarily trained citizens who will be both terrified and desperate.

Thirdly, Taiwan is an island. One coast is mountainous and ridiculously rugged. The other side is densely populated and heavily defended.

If Taiwan makes it clear that it's a trap that will let you in, but not out, an that pride will be the first casualty of the insurgency, it might be enough to make China think again, and allow Taiwan to make a deal.

Taiwan has something China wants, that is more than just the "rogue province", and that is a solution to the first island chain problem. Taiwan could potentially make an treaty - ceding small but strategically important territotory to China that would allow the latter to break through the island chain, in return for China recognising Taiwanese independence in some liguistic form and (i.e. recognising the ROC as the legitimate government of the "islands of Taiwan" - or something like that). For example, ceding the Orchid and Lesser Orchid islands off the west coast, along with Pratas island and the Eluanbi peninsula at the southernmost tip of the island would allow China secure passage through the chain, and to establish a naval base facing directly into the pacific - which could potentially give a win-win situation to both parties without a shot being fired. The population involved is small so would be sellable on Taiwan, given the benefits of a secure treaty and recognition with the Chinese government - and China could sell the strategic advantages and how a major geopolitical issue can be resolved without bloodshed.

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• Armed forces must be ready for a ‘comprehensive military struggle from a new starting point’, leader says
• Central Military Commission issues new guidelines to boost morale based on greater empathy and merit-based promotions

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for battle as the country faces unprecedented risks and challenges.

Xi’s speech was made at a meeting of top officials from the Central Military Commission (CMC), which he heads, and broadcast later on national television.

“All military units must correctly understand major national security and development trends, and strengthen their sense of unexpected hardship, crisis and battle,” he said.

At the meeting, Xi also signed off on the first military command of 2019, which will kick-start a year of enhanced military training and exercises.

China’s armed forces must “prepare for a comprehensive military struggle from a new starting point”, he said. “Preparation for war and combat must be deepened to ensure an efficient response in times of emergency.”

Xi has consistently pushed the PLA to boost its combat readiness since taking over as president and head of the CMC in late 2012, and that looks set to intensify through 2019.

Earlier in the week, PLA Daily, the official newspaper of China’s military, said in an editorial that “there was no time for slacking in war preparation”.

Similarly, the CMC issued a series of guidelines to boost morale, saying military personnel would be promoted on the basis of merit, and promising greater leniency and understanding for mistakes made in training.

Shanghai-based military expert Ni Lexiong said the recent “high-profile gestures” were probably intended as a warning to those who sought to obstruct the mainland’s plans for the reunification of Taiwan.

“[They] show how seriously Xi is taking China’s military training and its preparations for war, while also flexing its strength,” he said.

While Xi spoke of his desire for a “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, few experts expect Beijing to ease the military pressure on the island, which it regards as a breakaway province.

According to a report by state broadcaster CCTV, the military command signed by Xi prioritises enhanced training, with the focus on combat readiness, drills, troop inspections and resistance exercises.

It applies to all units of the PLA, including troops, academies and armed police, and is designed to “ensure new challenges are met and battles are won”, according to a copy of the guidelines seen during the television report.

Yue Gang, a retired PLA colonel, said that as well as the rising tensions between Beijing and Taipei, Xi’s rallying call to the military was a response to the growing uncertainty over the geopolitical struggle between China and the United States.

“China is increasing its military training so that it has the best solutions for the worst outcomes, either related to the US or across the [Taiwan] strait,” he said.

“Over the coming year, the US might use Taiwan and the South China Sea as bargaining chips to get what it wants from China with regards to the trade war,” he said.

“And there is always the possibility of increased independence calls from Taiwan.”

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advill said:

China & Taiwan must continue "talking to each other". Only Chinese can hopefully talk sensibly to Chinese, regardless of their political ideologies, and WITHOUT interference from any country including the US. To the Americans our advise is MYOB. Trump has several serious domestic, regional & international problems to solve, so pl DO NOT DIVERT your Administration's attention to China to safeguard your interests. The One-China Policy was already settled during the time of Mao & Nixon.... Kissinger witnessed it. Let there be serious discussions between China & Taiwan with goodwill & aimed at PEACE & PROSPERITY for all Chinese people. Where the SCS is concerned let the countries involved in the long standing disputes negotiate with China --- and perhaps also get a reliable & respected mediator. I do not speak or am involved in any capacity with the Singapore Government. However, I believe Singapore can be a reliable Mediator for SCS. On hindsight I believe a few of our Singaporean leaders could be mediators - including perhaps Two of 4th Generation Leaders and an MFA team (Pl note that this comment is my own making without any local or foreign influence). Let there be Peace on Earth & Goodwill to All Men" - the alternative is unthinkable.

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mr.bean said:

jesus you're joking right? Singapore as a reliable mediator for the SCS?? hahahahaha.....my god.

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China may end up occupying more areas in the West Philippine Sea if it would be allowed to unilaterally rehabilitate coral reefs in the disputed region, a maritime expert warned.

Jay Batongbacal, director of the UP Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, said China’s announcement that it would carry out coral reef rehabilitation and restoration in the South China Sea should be taken with a grain of salt.

“Interested states should take the position that no such activities should be undertaken except under conditions of full transparency, equal participation and mutual cooperation by all,” he said.

“Despite its apparent environmental benefits, activities of this kind, if unilaterally undertaken, may be used to justify exclusive and effective control of reef areas similar to how China currently controls Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal,” he added.

Batongbacal noted China’s statement saying it will survey other areas aside from those that it currently occupies, saying it indicates carrying out such works in other reef areas outside of those that they currently occupy.

“Doing so may result in new, additional areas being placed under exclusive control and administration, tantamount to occupation but short of ‘new inhabitation’ (which the Parties said they will not do, per the 2002 Declaration of Conduct),” said the UP professor.

“Carrying out coral restoration/rehabilitation activities in the South China Sea unilaterally, and within the exclusive economic zones of the Southeast Asian littoral States, would be tantamount to an exercise of civilian administration and control and undoubtedly could be used in the future as evidence that China treats these areas no differently from their own resources in their territorial seas and internal waters,” he added.

Batongbacal said states should question the plan, saying silence would be evidence of acquiescence to China’s assertion of such administration and control.

He said China should not unilaterally undertake marine environmental conservation and protection if it is serious about its goal of rehabilitating the coral reefs.

“Any coral restoration project in the South China Sea should be transparently undertaken, with full access and participation of the other claimant states, in accordance with formal agreements that transparently lay out the intentions of the Parties and ensure no prejudice will be created in favor of/against their respective claims/positions,” he said.

“The China-ASEAN Decade of Marine Environmental Protection could be used as a platform for this kind of cooperative activity (up to now, this remains a piece of paper, another of many papers that were announced with much fanfare but have very little substance),” he added.

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plawolf said:

It’s painfully clear from that post that you have effectively zero understanding of the actual situations on the ground.

Hostile natural terrain is only an advantage to the defender if the locals are already used to living in such conditions to start with.

If anyone is stupid enough to send Taiwan’s conscripted city boys with minimal training into its hostile interior, the terrain will kill them more effectively than the PLA.

Any insurgency needs supplies. Vietnam worked because they had the USSR and China supplying them with all the arms, munitions and other war goods they needed to sustain the insurgency.

Same deal with Afghanistan (both times) and Iraq.

What are your insurgent army going to eat and fight with in the mountains and jungles? You plan to hide farms and armament factories in those magical mountains also?

The only way Taiwan could hope to cost China militarily is cityfighting.

Even though Iraqi and Syrian cities are villages compared to Taiwan’s bustling metropolis, the battles fought in the ME does give a taste of what cityfighting in a modern city might be like.

In all likelihood, the costs of doing so would be significant on all fronts, be it in terms of casualties for the attacker, civilian losses, and damage to Taiwan’s economic and industrial capability.

But you are fundamentally misunderstand China’s position on Taiwan if you think pride, economic/industrial output and strategic positioning is China’s only or even primary motivation for never allowing Taiwan’s independence.

Whatever the price, if it came down to it, China would be willing to pay it. This isn’t just the position of China’s leadership, but also the will of the Chinese people.

In that respects, even cityfighting does not serve as much of a deterrent to the PLA, especially if they do not care about the economic and industrial worth of those cities.

The PLA could surround the cities, allow safe passage for all civilians to evacuate to refugee camps, and just systematically flatten the cities with artillery afterwards.

Such a move would actually even be beneficial to China in terms of the long term pacification of the island, as the civilian population of Taiwan could be scattered throughout China for re-housing, as it would take years or even decades to rebuild.

Scattered, and integrated into the local communities, no insurgence could hope to develop. Such a move would also effectively erase any notion of a ‘Taiwanese’ identity, and once the new cities are built to replace those destroyed, Beijing will get to decide who goes in to repopulate them.

The only way Taiwan could make cityfighting costly for the PLA is if they refused to allow the civilian population to evacuate, and use them as human shields to prevent the PLA from just shelling them to dust for afar.

Let’s see RAND put that in one of their recommendations.

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advill said:

China & Taiwan must continue "talking to each other". Only Chinese can hopefully talk sensibly to Chinese, regardless of their political ideologies, and WITHOUT interference from any country including the US. To the Americans our advise is MYOB. Trump has several serious domestic, regional & international problems to solve, so pl DO NOT DIVERT your Administration's attention to China to safeguard your interests. The One-China Policy was already settled during the time of Mao & Nixon.... Kissinger witnessed it. Let there be serious discussions between China & Taiwan with goodwill & aimed at PEACE & PROSPERITY for all Chinese people. Where the SCS is concerned let the countries involved in the long standing disputes negotiate with China --- and perhaps also get a reliable & respected mediator. I do not speak or am involved in any capacity with the Singapore Government. However, I believe Singapore can be a reliable Mediator for SCS. On hindsight I believe a few of our Singaporean leaders could be mediators - including perhaps Two of 4th Generation Leaders and an MFA team (Pl note that this comment is my own making without any local or foreign influence). Let there be Peace on Earth & Goodwill to All Men" - the alternative is unthinkable.

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Biscuits said:

I doubt it would come down to city fighting. ROC does not have enough committed/fanaticist soldiers for that.

Honestly I don’t think it wouldn’t even take PLA effort except in disarming captured munitions.

PAP just need to rush in and arrest the ringleaders, then the whole place fall apart.

The major risk is the missiles pointed at mainland cities but missile defense could take care of those.

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