Chinese Economics Thread

Equation

Lieutenant General
If a country is extremely unorganised and inefficient (best part of it works in agriculture) then anything that improve it will increase dramatically the productivity.

Like starting to make agricultural tools, fertilisers and so on.

When the country reach the development level, when all inefficient ( potato picker) gone, then the easy parts of productivity improvement gone as well.

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I agree ,China productivity increased, but the past and future increase require two separated sets of institutional ,cultural and economics foundation.

Before 2010 any infrastructure investment had positive payback, after 2010 not.


I choose that because that is the main component of the Chinese meat consumption.

As the people get wealthy the major calorie intake rebalancing from grains to meats.

Seafood is tricky, hard to increase the production, but pork/poultry is easy to scale up.

fi0cyTaHSu_YlM_7ehTiIYCoYYc_R3elTBG24r7LLyw.png


2017:
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Pork: 41.3
Poultry: 14.2

Seafood
Screenshot_55.png


Actually, I was wrong ,the seafood is the most important.
The 17/18 is forecast.

Productivity increased in China and it's still increasing. There's no point to what you just said.

Also, I just realized that China consumes pork, the least healthy meat, in more quantity per capita than the US or the EU.
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China consumes more than double the pork of the EU (population about double) and more than 4 times the pork as the US (population around 4 times). It's really really time that Chinese people eat less pork. America is known for being fat and unhealthy and China eats more pork per capita! Geeze, no wonder consumption hit the ceiling and is decreasing. It really needs to. I never knew this; I thought Chinese pork consumption is much lower than the developed countries. This makes it very clear and reasonable why pork consumption dropped.

This is for your information about the rise of seafood consumption and demand in China, not your graph about production predictions. You do know the difference between consumption and production, right?
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Equation

Lieutenant General
I posted the wrong link. This is the link that shows pork consumption per capita.
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China is about the same as the EU and higher than the US. There's really no reason at all to expect it to keep rising anymore. It would be expecting the same population of people to eat more food every year indefinitely.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
I posted the wrong link. This is the link that shows pork consumption per capita.
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China is about the same as the EU and higher than the US. There's really no reason at all to expect it to keep rising anymore. It would be expecting the same population of people to eat more food every year indefinitely.

That data not in line with the other sources, but the ratio between the countries seems all right.

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EU average meat (prok+fish+poultry) around 85kg, China is around the same.


On its own this data not that interesting, but with the smartphone, car sales number , house sales data ( including empty apartments ) and consumer debt showing a definitive inflection point around 2016.

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If a country is extremely unorganised and inefficient (best part of it works in agriculture) then anything that improve it will increase dramatically the productivity.

Like starting to make agricultural tools, fertilisers and so on.

When the country reach the development level, when all inefficient ( potato picker) gone, then the easy parts of productivity improvement gone as well.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


...
... and so on and so forth, I've now looked at posts in the last two pages here;

Anlsvrthng
what is it you're saying, in one sentence please

for example "China_faces_
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_in_x_years_from_now"

and please put it in a way that anyone can verify in the future if you were right or just babbling LOL
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
That data not in line with the other sources, but the ratio between the countries seems all right.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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EU average meat (prok+fish+poultry) around 85kg, China is around the same.


On its own this data not that interesting, but with the smartphone, car sales number , house sales data ( including empty apartments ) and consumer debt showing a definitive inflection point around 2016.

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https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinese-economics-thread.t3715/page-967#post-536224

The pork data is not that interesting now? You've always been saying its interesting... haha. No, it's not interesting, alone, or as a part of anything, because as I said, a population of people cannot keep consuming more and more food indefinitely.

Same thing with cellphones. In December of 2017, China had more cellphones than people. It's not going to rise by any notable amount anymore. Not interesting. This year, especially should be poor for cellphone sales as China prepares to transition into 5G; nobody wants to buy a cellphone that's 1 generation behind 2 months after you bought it.
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I have no idea what you're talking about for housing. It rose 15% for this year up to October. You're imagining a decline without checking data.
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Cars cars cars haha. It's been explained to you in several ways already.
1. Transition of conventional engine to EV engine leaves buyers hesitant on buying conventional cars with a phase-out in progress.
2. Transition from manufacturer of massive amounts of low end goods to one with high value chain but less mass as well as service sector increase means reduced shipping need.
3. Superior public transportation including the relegation of non-high speed trans for shipping reduces vehicular need, particularly in the city.
4. Government controls clamp down on traffic congestion deliberately making car ownership a hassle to discourage new purchases.
5. The conclusion cannot possibly be a decrease in purchasing power because more expensive model sales rise while cheaper models fall and overall consumer spending rose 9% this year, which is evidence in itself that purchasing power has increased. You cannot counter the overall trend of increase with 1 data point of decrease.

If I were you, I would never talk about debt again because right now, I still don't know if you actually know what that is. There was no inflection at all in 2016; it just kept rising smoothly. China's consumer debt rises as a percentage of national GDP, indicating an increasing share of citizen consumption as a part of the national economy. China's per capita GDP, wages and dispensable income also rose indicating healthy growth bolstering the purchasing power of private citizens. Right now, debt is clearly at much lower levels than seen in the West, let's say the USA, so it can very well grow, and needs to grow to increase consumption. (US debt grew and grew until it was about 80% then it was controlled.) You cannot have China become a big consumer with debt vs GDP levels that are very low; no economy in the world has this combination. These trends show China transitioning into a more consumer-based economy with private citizens controlling more money and spending more money.
 
yes, I read
Economic Watch: Key meeting signals China's economic resilience in 2019
Xinhua| 2018-12-16 18:32:47
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The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee studied the economic work for 2019 during a Thursday meeting in the lead-up to a tone-setting central economic work conference, leaving clues as to the resilience of the Chinese economy.

The Thursday meeting has been more positive in describing China's external environment than three other key Central Committee economic work meetings this year, according to a research note by CSC Financial, a Chinese investment bank.

Mention of "important period of strategic opportunity" and repeated references to focusing on domestic affairs mean economic policies in 2019 will be more about addressing issues at home, the research note said.

Commenting on the strategic opportunity, Haitong Securities senior researcher Jiang Chao said policies would advance the high-quality development of the manufacturing sector, cultivate a stronger domestic market and speed up economic reforms and opening up.

"Despite the increasing downward pressure, signals from the meeting are not pessimistic," Jiang said. "The country should continue to seize the important period of strategic opportunity for development and seek an optimal policy mix and maximum effects."

Upcoming policy plans will possibly increase the importance of domestic demand in driving economic growth in 2019, according to analysis by investment banking firm CICC.

In addition, the country will stay firm in carrying forward its opening up following the plans made and pace set, CICC said.

There will be sufficient favorable conditions for the economy in the next year, analysts said, citing the untapped potential of Chinese consumers.

Analysts said the country's economy was increasingly driven by consumption with less reliance on international trade, a shift that it needs.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday unveiled a string of economic indicators showing a pick-up in investment and stability in consumer spending as China is set to meet its annual growth target.

Fixed-asset investment, a major growth driver, expanded 5.9 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months, picking up pace for the third straight month from the bottom in August and exceeding market expectations. Retail sales of consumer goods posted a solid increase of 8.1 percent in November in part driven by robust online shopping.

Given the encouraging trend, "there is no doubt that China will fulfill this year's growth target of around 6.5 percent," NBS spokesperson Mao Shengyong said, adding that the economy would have a sound foundation in 2019.

Li Wei, head of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said China's steady and improving economic fundamentals were favorable for its development goals.

"China can well handle the risks and challenges and maintain the healthy trend toward stable growth by giving full play to its advantages," Li said.
 

Mcsweeney

Junior Member
Shenzhen's silent revolution: world's first fully electric bus fleet quietens Chinese megacity
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All 16,000 buses in the fast-growing Chinese megacity are now electric, and soon all 22,000 taxis will be too

You have to keep your eyes peeled for the bus at the station in Shenzhen’s Futian central business district these days. The diesel behemoths that once signalled their arrival with a piercing hiss, a rattle of engine and a plume of fumes are no more, replaced with the world’s first and largest 100% electric bus fleet.

Shenzhen now has 16,000 electric buses in total and is noticeably quieter for it. “We find that the buses are so quiet that people might not hear them coming,” says Joseph Ma, deputy general manager at Shenzhen Bus Group, the largest of the three main bus companies in the city. “In fact, we’ve received requests to add some artificial noise to the buses so that people can hear them. We’re considering it.”

The benefits from the switch from diesel buses to electric are not confined to less noise pollution: this fast-growing megacity of 12 million – which was a fishing village until designated China’s first “special economic zone” in the 1980s – is also expected to achieve an estimated reduction in CO2 emissions of 48% and cuts in pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, non-methane hydrocarbons and particulate matter. Shenzhen Bus Group estimates it has been able to conserve 160,000 tonnes of coal per year and reduce annual CO2 emissions by 440,000 tonnes. Its fuel bill has halved.

“With diesel buses I can remember standing at the bus stop and the heat, noise and emissions they generated made it unbearable in the summer,” says Ma. “The electric buses have made a tremendous difference.”

China’s drive to reduce the choking smog that envelops many of its major cities has propelled a huge investment in electric transport. Although it remains expensive for cities to introduce electric buses – one bus costs around 1.8 million yuan (£208,000) – Shenzhen was able to go all-electric thanks to generous subsidies from both central and local government.

“Typically, more than half of the cost of the bus is subsidised by government,” says Ma. “In terms of operation there is another subsidy: if we run our buses for a distance of more than 60,000km we receive just under 500,000 yuan [£58,000] from local government.” This subsidy is put towards reducing the cost of the bus fares: “The government looks at the public transport very much as social welfare.”

To keep Shenzhen’s electric vehicle fleet running, the city has built around 40,000 charging piles. Shenzhen Bus Company has 180 depots with their own charging facilities installed. One of its major depots in Futian can accommodate around 20 buses at the same time. “Most of the buses we charge overnight for two hours and then they can run their entire service, as the range of the bus is 200km per charge,” says Ma.

Availability of charging stations is a major factor in why it is it difficult for other cities around the world to switch to all-electric bus fleets, but China being a one-party state hasn’t necessarily made it any easier in Shenzhen. “We have some of our own depots, but we also have to rent some from the municipal government, as well as from the private sector,” says Ma. “Aside from the subsidies in terms of purchasing the buses, we are very much left to ourselves to how we look for resources for our charging infrastructure.”

Getting the required charging infrastructure for taxis is proving more challenging. By the end of this month, all of Shenzhen’s 22,000 taxis are required to switch to electric. Shenzhen Bus Company has switched its entire fleet of 4,600 taxis to electric ahead of schedule.

“For taxis it’s more about distribution than the number of charging pillars because taxis run all over the place and they have no fixed routes,” says Ma. “We are looking at all sorts of different solutions – from parking spaces in public areas like municipal parks and some of the major government venues, as well as temporary sites in local villages that might have communal land we can hire.”

The lack of charging stations is causing friction between taxi drivers. “You always hear about fights between taxi drivers trying to get into the charging stations and things like that,” says Ma. “It’s difficult for the drivers because obviously they can’t go too far out of the way to charge the taxis.”

His firm is developing an app to track where charging spaces are available and notify drivers in real time.

Too expensive outside China?
More than 30 Chinese cities have made plans to achieve 100% electrified public transit by 2020, including Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Foshan and Zhongshan in the Pearl River Delta; and Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shaanxi and Shandong.

But with central government planning to withdraw subsidies by 2020, introducing electric buses elsewhere could be too expensive.

There is also geography to consider. Shenzhen is fairly flat, but the hills of nearby Hong Kong have proven too much in trials of electric buses. Other cities in northern China have struggled with battery power in the extreme cold of winter.

Meanwhile, cities such as London and New York are accelerating their drive towards electric buses. London plans to make all single-decker buses emission-free by 2020, and all double-deckers hybrid by 2019. New York plans to make its bus fleet all-electric by 2040.

Riding the 222 bus the length of Shenzhen’s CBD, you hear little sound other than a soft whine when the driver accelerates. The easy-to-clean hard plastic seats are not the most comfortable but most passengers opt to stand anyway – a choice made easier by the smoothness of the ride.

Rolling into our destination, the doors open with a beep, beep, beep – the loudest noise the bus has made the entire journey.

“It’s quieter, smoother and I only pay the same fare as before,” says Lai, a regular passenger. “I would say most people here are happy with the switch.”
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
... and so on and so forth, I've now looked at posts in the last two pages here;

Anlsvrthng
what is it you're saying, in one sentence please

for example "China_faces_
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
_in_x_years_from_now"

and please put it in a way that anyone can verify in the future if you were right or just babbling LOL

The Arctic ice sheet collapse has better scientific data, better simulation and way easier than the economy of China.

However no one can tell when will be the first ice free arctic summer.

This is like the EU crisis since 2010
It lasts way longer than I expected, I thought that it will collapse at the beginning of 10s.
It is like the supercooled water, that remain liquid without anything that start the crystallisation.

I have no clue when will happen, what will happen, all that is clear something needs to happen and change.
 
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