Trade War with China

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Good op/ed by George Koo
passage from article in Asia times
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Will history remember the coming Trump-Xi dinner party?
Whether it's hamburgers or humble pie, there is a strong chance the host will make a meal of it
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NOVEMBER 17, 2018 3:17 PM (UTC+8)
One of US President Donald Trump's favorite meals. Photo: iStock
President Trump has invited China’s President Xi to stick around after the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires so that Trump can host a dinner party – “maybe hamburgers, maybe more; it’ll be just great, great,” he might have said.

Xi has tentatively accepted and the world can assume that the two leaders will engage in substantial conversation about the trade war, tension in the South China Seas and other subjects of deep concern to both countries.

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While the Dow Jones seems to flutter up and down depending whether the pre-summit preparatory talks by officials are perceived to be going well or not, most observers following Trump closely are not expecting much to come out of the coming summit.

A major reason for low expectation is Trump’s notorious negotiating style. He says one thing and means another. He always reserves the right to abruptly change his position at any time.

This approach might have proven effective in his real estate dealings, keeping his competitor off balance, but is not any good for building trust and confidence with foreign countries.

He has also made a list of harsh demands and expects China to come to Washington, hat in hand, with a list of concessions in exchange for the privilege to sit down and negotiate. Trump seems to think the Chinese would accept his upside down process, namely for China to concede first, and then negotiate.

Trump objects to Made in China 2025
Probably the most surprising among all this is Trump’s indignation that he finds China’s Made in China 2025 “insulting” and demands China retracts the national plan.

Made in China 2025 is meant to be an aspirational document to encourage the Chinese people to aim high based on excellence in STEM and by the dint of their own efforts.

It’s puzzling as to why MiC 2025 is any of Trump’s business and that he should find it offensive.

Nothing in the document says anything about commandeering US technology or about pushing American heads under water in order to advance China.

Instead, it’s China that should feel offended that Trump finds China’s aspirations insulting. Instead of spelling out his own set of national aspirations to compete with China, Trump is trying to push the Chinese underwater as a way for the US to stay on top.

Thus we are left to speculate as to the possible outcome of the dinner discussion in Argentina. Will it presage the beginning of a cold war between China and the US? Or will it make some advances in the trade war negotiation?

The hostile tone of speeches given by Vice-President
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as a stand-in for Trump suggests that the US is heading toward confrontation. He accuses China of militarizing the South China Sea. Yet it’s the American Navy that regularly patrols the water in the name of exercising Freedom of Navigation.

Apparently sending your warships thousands of mile away from your home base to sail around China’s territorial waters is friendly but for China to develop military bases on its offshore islands is unfriendly.

Hijacking intellectual property
Pence and the rest of Trump’s China team accuse China of forcing the transfer of intellectual property in order for US companies to do business in China.

It’s true in the early days when China joined the WTO, China as a developing country with backward technology was allowed to protect certain key industries. Protection included the requirement that the foreign company must form a joint venture with a Chinese company. In the process, foreign know-how was shared with the local entity.

There is no denying that the strategy was helpful for China to catch up. Now as the second largest economy with its mounting collection of native-grown intellectual property, China should no longer need to insist on forming JVs to access foreign technology.


(Cont) here
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Every country wants higher R&D spending.

Plot R&D spending against GDP per capita for middle income versus developed countries. The China exception is obvious.

Either Chinese R&D spending crashes downwards to the levels of middle income countries.

Or Chinese GDP per capita increases to wealthy developed country levels.

And the trend is firmly for Chinese R&D to increase further.
That is a historical observation.
Now the policymakers are aware of this connection, and actively trying to speed the development of they country by spending more for RnD without having institutional background, so I seriously doubt that there will be strong correlation between prosperity and RnD spending in the future.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
That is a historical observation.
Now the policymakers are aware of this connection, and actively trying to speed the development of they country by spending more for RnD without having institutional background, so I seriously doubt that there will be strong correlation between prosperity and RnD spending in the future.

Think about it.

Government can spend money directly on R&D, or create a favourable environment for companies to invest in R&D spending.

The OECD/UNESCO collects R&D statistics on "Government", "Business" and "Other" for different countries.

We can see that Government R&D spending is roughly 1% of GDP maximum . The rest is mostly from Business
So a high spending R&D country means many companies see the value of R&D spending.
But companies cannot afford to be wasteful, otherwise they go bankrupt in the marketplace. Particularly in the hyper-competitive China market.

So if we see countries with high R&D spending (like China 2017 at 2.1%), then it means a business friendly environment does exist and that R&D spending is efficient or effective.

Here is an old graph which shows China and other countries. Can you redo a chart for 2017 and then post it.

international-gdp-research-government-business-other-conversation.png
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Think about it.

Government can spend money directly on R&D, or create a favourable environment for companies to invest in R&D spending.

The OECD/UNESCO collects R&D statistics on "Government", "Business" and "Other" for different countries.
.....
Here is an old graph which shows China and other countries. Can you redo a chart for 2017 and then post it.

This is the reason why I like to visit forums, during this discussion I checked the tax benefits of doing R&D ,and as it looks like it worth to found ways to use this opportunity in the UK.

Practically it makes sense to establish a business around it.

Anyway, check this one :
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Finland ,that is the interesting : )

This data based on the amount of tax credit / money claimed by the companies as R&D expenditure, so if a country expand the deductible items , then it will increase the R&D without any significant change.

So the difference between the USA and say Romanian in R&D can be simply the scope of R&D claimable projects.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I was reading some comments on Yahoo about Single's Day and some of the Trump loyalists believe the US made $7.5 billion on tariffs. Now do they think all of the products bought were by Americans or do they think Trump can slap a tariff on products not made in America sold in China? Sometimes the level of dumb is hard to believe that I have to think it may be bots. I actually heard a US talking head on a show segment talking about how China's US soybean tariffs are killing US farmers mention the internet origin tale that Brazil was buying US soybeans and selling them to China. It's the tail wagging the dog. If that were happening the US soybean market wouldn't be getting killed by China.

In other news Trump is questioning VP Pence's loyalty and people are wondering why. Maybe in part he's making statements at APEC that contradict Trump's at-the-moment comments? I see no one bringing up that Pence is being the classic Republican from before Trump and because of the Democrats taking over the House of Representatives where they have impeachment powers, Pence might be readying seeing himself sitting behind the desk in the Oval Office.
 

Yvrch

Junior Member
Registered Member
That is a historical observation.
Now the policymakers are aware of this connection, and actively trying to speed the development of they country by spending more for RnD without having institutional background, so I seriously doubt that there will be strong correlation between prosperity and RnD spending in the future.

Blackstone, at least keep your fake pidgin, fake grammatical errors consistent FFS LoL.
 
This chard said it all
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View attachment 50053
actually I didn't like the technicalities of your chart, used google to look for numbers etc. and in the process found this interesting story (dated 20 Sept 2018) of
Inside China's strategy in the soybean trade war
  • There is growing confidence within China's soybean industry and government that the world's largest pork-producing nation can wean itself off U.S. soy exports.
  • Cutting the soy ration for hogs from the typical 20 percent to 12 percent would equate to a demand reduction of up to 27 million tonnes of soybeans per year.
  • China's 25-percent tariff on U.S. soybeans is accelerating the push to slash soymeal rations.
"The executive from one of
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biggest soybean crushers sat on a panel at a Kansas City agricultural exports conference, listening to an expert beside him explain why China would remain dependent on
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soybeans to feed its massive hog herds.

When his turn to speak came, Mu Yan Kui told the international audience of soy traders that everything they just heard was wrong."

etc.:
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
actually I didn't like the technicalities of your chart, used google to look for numbers etc. and in the process found this interesting story (dated 20 Sept 2018) of
Inside China's strategy in the soybean trade war
  • There is growing confidence within China's soybean industry and government that the world's largest pork-producing nation can wean itself off U.S. soy exports.
  • Cutting the soy ration for hogs from the typical 20 percent to 12 percent would equate to a demand reduction of up to 27 million tonnes of soybeans per year.
  • China's 25-percent tariff on U.S. soybeans is accelerating the push to slash soymeal rations.
"The executive from one of
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biggest soybean crushers sat on a panel at a Kansas City agricultural exports conference, listening to an expert beside him explain why China would remain dependent on
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
soybeans to feed its massive hog herds.

When his turn to speak came, Mu Yan Kui told the international audience of soy traders that everything they just heard was wrong."

etc.:
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Well the report dated 20 Sept and I did read this article At that time all the analyst were predicting that China will return to US soybean come Fall because that is the end of Brazilian soy bean harvest. So the theory goes China has no choice but returning to buy US sybean

No such thing what was transpired since then China did buy from various sources as well as increasing domestic production by giving incentive for farmer to grow soy bean.Coupled with change in animal feed composition It should reduce demand from US

As to farmer loyalty I don't know how long can they hold on to it. Sofar so good but loan must be paid and saving will be depleted Buy out won't last forever
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
This is the reason why I like to visit forums, during this discussion I checked the tax benefits of doing R&D ,and as it looks like it worth to found ways to use this opportunity in the UK.

Practically it makes sense to establish a business around it.

Anyway, check this one :
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Finland ,that is the interesting : )

This data based on the amount of tax credit / money claimed by the companies as R&D expenditure, so if a country expand the deductible items , then it will increase the R&D without any significant change.

So the difference between the USA and say Romanian in R&D can be simply the scope of R&D claimable projects.

And why is there is a difference between Romania and the USA in terms of what is claimable as R&D spending?

That would appear to indicate that the Romanian government is incompetent in fostering a business friendly environment.

If you look at China, we can see business actually does have a lot of influence in legislation.

But why do we care about Romanian R&D anyway?
 
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